評論
打印
Washington (CNN) -- Faced with the prospective divorce of its closest friend, the United States is following the advice column carefully: don't take sides, keep your opinions to yourself, and avoid getting dragged into the fray.
華盛頓（CNN）——美國在其最親密盟友面臨“婚姻”危機時，謹言慎行地采納了建議專欄的看法：別公開偏向任何一方，自己知道就好，不要卷入這場爭端。
The complicating factor in this potential split? One side has a nuclear arsenal. Who gets custody of that?
那么這次可能出現的分裂中有哪些復雜的因素？舉個例子，其中一方有核軍火庫。分家之后誰來接管？
Thursday's independence referendum in Scotland, and with it the possible split of the 300-year-old United Kingdom, could have consequences big and small, including in the United States. The "special relationship" heralded by presidents and prime ministers for decades would be fundamentally altered, though American officials refuse to speculate in which ways.
在周四進行的蘇格蘭獨立公投，可能導致英國長達300年的歷史一朝分裂，同時也可能帶來一系列大大小小的后果，美國也會受其影響。數十年來由美國總統和英國首相構成的“特殊關系”也許將會徹底改變，盡管美國官員拒絕作此推測。
As British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Tuesday, a "yes" result on independence would amount to a "painful divorce" between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain, not a "trial separation."
如英國首相卡梅倫周二時所說，若結果是“成功獨立”，將造成蘇格蘭和大不列顛其它各部分“痛苦的離婚”，而這場離婚顯然不是“暫時分居（注：以決定是否正式離婚）”。
That prospect has elicited only a few sentences of official U.S. reaction. President Barack Obama said in June the U.K. had been an "extraordinary partner" to the United States and had done well for itself as a combined entity.
而美國官員對此后果只作出了零星點評。總統奧巴馬在六月時稱英國是美國“絕佳的伙伴”，尤其是在英國作為一個整體的時候。
"We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that one of the closest allies that we will ever have remains strong, robust, united, and an effective partner," Obama said then. "But ultimately these are decisions that are to be made by the folks there."
“我們當然十分希望這個非凡的盟友能繼續強大、團結下去，繼續成為一個有效的伙伴。”奧巴馬當時這樣表示。“不過總的來說，這件事還是應該由那里的民眾來作出決定。”
Those few words -- with the emphasis on "united" -- have been repeated by officials in Washington as the formal U.S. stance without any further explanation. But there's little doubt the U.S. government, from Obama on down, wants to see Scotland remain where it is.
這寥寥幾句話——其中強調了“作為整體”一詞——已在隨后被白宮官員援引，作為美國對此事正式而不做改變的立場。不過毫無疑問，美國政府，從奧巴馬到各級官員，都希望蘇格蘭留在原有的位置。
"It would just be rude to comment on the internal deliberations of a democratic country," explained Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is now a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Of course the United States has an opinion. I think they recognize, however, that stating that opinion is not always even very helpful to promoting it."
“對這樣一個民主國家的內部意見進行評論是一件很無禮的事。”前美國國務院官員、現就職于布魯斯金研究院（注：美國兩大智庫之一）的杰瑞米·夏皮羅解釋道。“當然美國還是有自己的看法，只不過他們應該意識到，說出自己的看法并不見得能幫上忙。”
Rules of diplomacy aside, U.S. officials are eyeing the referendum vote carefully two days before Scots head to the polls. Here are a few ways the United States could be affected by a "yes" vote.
盡管要遵守外交原則，美國官員們在蘇格蘭人進行公投兩天前就盯著事態發展。以下為您整理的是“成功獨立”將為美國帶來哪些方面的影響。
National security
國家安全
It's only been two weeks since Obama and Cameron hailed a reinvigorated NATO alliance from a golf course in Wales. Should Scotland vote to go it alone, expect fresh questions about NATO's ability to counter Russia in Eastern Europe.
奧巴馬和卡梅倫在威爾士打了一場高爾夫，談妥北約聯盟才過了兩周。如果蘇格蘭成功脫離英國，北約對抗東歐俄羅斯的實力就會冒出許多新問題。
All of Britain's nuclear weapons -- its only contribution to a Western nuclear deterrent -- are housed at the Royal Navy's base on Scotland's West Coast. A "yes" vote would throw into question the future of the Trident nuclear program, which consists of four Vanguard-class submarines armed with ballistic missiles on lease from the United States
英國所有的核武器——這是他對西方國家核威懾的唯一貢獻——都存放在蘇格蘭西海岸的皇家海軍基地。“成功獨立”后，將引發三叉戟核導彈系統的歸屬問題，其中包括美國租借出的四艘裝載彈道導彈的一流潛水艇。
The main pro-independence party says it opposes nuclear weapons, vowing to remove and ban them in a future Scottish state. Where the weapons would go remains an open question.
贊成獨立的人稱他們反對核武器，誓言要將其從蘇格蘭國土上驅逐并禁止。而這些核武器歸屬何方尚不知曉。
Also in dispute: an independent Scotland's ability -- and willingness -- to contribute to Western military coalitions, which have become ever-more visible as the U.S. rallies support behind its efforts against Russia and ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria.
另一個爭議點是：蘇格蘭獨立后的能力——和意愿——是否愿意為西方軍事聯盟出力。這一點在美國集合各方支持，對抗俄羅斯和伊拉克以及敘利亞的ISIS（注：伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國）恐怖分子后愈發明顯。
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said this week that Scotland would have to reapply to join the group like any other country and gain approval from each of the 28 member states -- a tough-to-imagine prospect in a period when the appetite for expansion within NATO remains low.
北約秘書長安諾斯·福格·拉斯穆森本周表示，蘇格蘭可能需要向其它國家一樣在加入任何組織前重新申請，并需要取得所有28個國家的同意——要加入已經不太想添加新成員的北約，這簡直是個無法想象的難題。
In rejoining the alliance Scotland would need to commit to spending 2% of its gross domestic product on defense spending, which given the uncertain economic outcome of an independence vote appears unachievable.
要重新加入北約，蘇格蘭至少要花費國內生產總值的2%用于國防開銷，這對于獨立后未知的經濟情況而言顯然無法達到。
"This is less about the nuclear deterrent than about demonstrating weakness and disunity at a critical point in NATO's history in the face of a sort of newly resurgent threat from Russia," Shapiro said. "The whole idea of one of its key members breaking up...doesn't really appeal to the United States at this critical moment in dealing with Russia."
“這并不全和核威懾有關，更多的是北約在面對俄羅斯新一輪危機時示弱和不團結的表現。”夏皮羅表示。“對于北約成員國之一在這種時候鬧分裂……美國忙于應對俄羅斯，顯然不樂于看到它發生。”
Economy
經濟
The uncertainty surrounding the economy of an independent Scotland could wind up costing Americans, who enjoy a close-knit trade relationship with Britain and the larger European Union.
一個獨立的蘇格蘭所面臨的經濟不確定性將使美國人花費更多，他們一直和英國及其他歐洲大國保持著緊密的貿易往來。
A main sticking point in the referendum campaign remains which currency a Scottish state could use -- be it the pound, Euro, or something new. Banks based in Scotland have said they'll decamp to London if the "yes" votes prevail, and an already-shaky European financial recovery could be quickly halted.
這次公投運動的癥結之一就是：蘇格蘭應該用哪種貨幣——英鎊、歐元、還是新發明一種。總部設在蘇格蘭的幾家銀行稱，如果公投結果是獨立，他們將逃到倫敦去，這樣本就風雨飄搖的歐債復蘇期就能迅速緩解了。
"If Scotland votes for independence, expect significant turmoil not just in the City, but on Wall Street as well," Niles Gardiner, a former aide to the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, wrote in the Telegraph last week. "Fears over the economic fallout from Scotland breaking off from the UK will spook US markets, frighten investors, and add to an air of uncertainty exacerbated in recent months by Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
“如果蘇格蘭公投結果為獨立，可以想見不僅在倫敦商業區，華爾街也會發生巨大的動蕩，”前英國首相撒切爾夫人的顧問尼爾·加里納上周在《每日電訊報》發文寫道。“蘇格蘭從英國獨立后可能帶來的巨大經濟風險把美國市場和投資者們嚇得不輕，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭后，蘇格蘭獨立更加重了不確定氛圍。”
Perhaps the greatest fear for the United States is that a successful independence movement in Scotland could spark further movements in the rest of Europe. Potential breakaway regions in Spain and Belgium are already eyeing the Scottish vote carefully.
也許對于美國來說最大的恐慌就是蘇格蘭一旦獨立，將會星火燎原，引發歐洲其他地區舉行更多運動。西班牙和比利時的潛在尋求分裂地區已經密切關注蘇格蘭此次投票了。
Those regions, like Scotland, would face questions about what currency they'd use and how their economies would be structured, driving the EU -- a major U.S. trade partner -- into further uncertainty and economic turmoil.
這些地區將面臨和蘇格蘭同樣的問題，應該使用哪種貨幣以及國內經濟如何架構，這也使歐盟——這個美國首要的貿易伙伴——走向迷霧重重和動蕩的經濟未來。
