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Lucky guesses, or something more?
幸運的猜測，還是另有玄機？
The quarterly results season in Japan, which reached its peak last week, has been notable for the re-emergence of a notorious feature of the world’s second-biggest equity market: companies’ results trailed days in advance on the pages of the Nikkei newspaper.
上周達到頂點的日本上市公司季度財報公開季，非常引人注目，因為它再次呈現了世界第二大股票市場一個聲名狼藉的特點：公司報告的業績在幾天前就被《日本經濟新聞》(Nikkei newspaper)準確預報。
In some countries this might have authorities muttering about disclosure violations, or a lack of equal access to price-sensitive information. But in Japan, regulators seem to have turned a blind eye to the “Nikkei previews”, allowing stories to appear and then, within a few hours, letting companies issue rote statements saying the stories are not based on anything they have announced.
在一些國家，這可能導致監管當局抱怨這違反披露規定，或者投資者對價格敏感信息缺乏平等的獲知途徑。但在日本，監管機構似乎歷來對“日經預覽”視而不見，允許《日本經濟新聞》上進行報道，然后在幾小時內讓公司發布機械的聲明，稱這些報道并非基于它們已公布的任何信息。
By then, however, the market has reacted, because the numbers seen by the 2.8m readers of Japan’s biggest business title are rarely wrong. “It’s absolutely assumed that if you try to run against it, you’ll get your face ripped off,” says Nicholas Smith of CLSA in Tokyo.
然而，市場到那時已有所反應，因為這份日本最大商業報紙的280萬讀者看到的數字很少出錯。“絕對可以認為，如果你跟報上的數字對賭，你不會有好下場，”里昂證券(CLSA)駐東京的尼古拉斯•史密斯(Nicholas Smith)表示。
Last week, GungHo Online Entertainment disclosed sparkling results for the six months to December, thanks largely to its hit smartphone game Puzzles & Dragons. Yet the record numbers – operating profit of Y53.8bn ($525m) on sales of Y94.3bn – had been outlined in a story six days earlier, when the Nikkei said they were likely to be “about Y50bn” and “about Y93bn” respectively.
上周，GungHo Online Entertainment披露了截至12月的十分亮麗的半年業績，主要得益于其受到熱捧的智能手機游戲“智龍迷城”(Puzzles & Dragons)。不過，創紀錄的業績數字——銷售額943億日元，營業利潤538億日元（合5.25億美元）——已出現在6天前的一份報道中，當時《日本經濟新聞》表示，該公司的營業利潤和銷售額可能分別為“約500億日元”和“約930億日元”。
More shares in GungHo were traded on the day of the Nikkei story than on July 30, the day following the after-hours release of the results. Volumes on July 23 were more than 50 per cent higher than the previous 15-day average.
在《日本經濟新聞》報道當日，GungHo股票的交易量高于其盤后公告業績次日的7月30日。7月23日，該股交易量比前15個交易日的平均值高出逾50%。
GungHo issued the standard response on July 23 and later told the Financial Times that the Nikkei story appeared to be based on “guesswork”.
7月23日，GungHo公布了標準的回復聲明，后來告訴英國《金融時報》，《日本經濟新聞》的報道似乎建立在“猜測”的基礎上。
The Nikkei declined to comment on its editorial policy other than to say its reporting was carried out “appropriately”.
《日本經濟新聞》拒絕置評其編輯政策，僅僅表示，其報道進行得“很得體”。
Some say the previews are a harmless hallmark of a free press. So widespread is the practice, they argue, that market participants have grown used to it. But others say the practice hurts Japan at a time when the government is keen to sustain the interest of foreign investors.
有些人表示，預覽是新聞自由的無害特征。他們辯稱，這一做法是如此普遍，以致市場參與者對此已經習以為常。但也有人表示，在政府熱衷于維護外國投資者權益的時候，這么做對日本是有害的。
Japan Exchange Group, operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, declined to comment on individual press reports, and said it had no comment on the “newsgathering methods” employed by the media.
東京股票交易所(Tokyo Stock Exchange)的運營方日本交易所集團(Japan Exchange Group)拒絕評論具體的媒體報道，并表示對該媒體的“新聞采集方法”無可奉告。
