LAST month a local official in Aichiprefecture set out a daring proposal. Tomonaga Osada suggested that theauthorities could distribute secretly punctured condoms to young marriedcouples, who would then get to work boosting the birth rate. His unorthodoxploy won few supporters, yet it reflects a gathering concern about Japan’sdemographic plight. Last year just over 1m babies were born, far fewer than thenumber needed to maintain the population, which is expected to drop from 127m toaround 87m by 2060. Why are young Japanese so loth to procreate?
上個月，日本愛知縣當地官員提出了一項大膽的提議。Tomonaga Osada提議有關當局秘密向已婚的年輕夫婦發放被刺破的避孕套，以此讓他們提高生育率。這個異端的計策并未獲得支持，但這卻反映了日益讓人感到擔憂的日本人口困境，去年，日本只迎來了100萬新生兒，這些數量遠低于維持人口所需的數量。據預期，截至2060年，日本人口將從1.27億落到8700萬左右。那么，為何日本的年輕人不愿意生育子女呢？
The spiral of demographic decline isspinning faster as the number of women of child-bearing age falls. In May areport predicted that 500 or more towns across the country will disappear byaround 2040 as young women migrate to bigger cities. The workforce is alreadyshrinking, imperiling future growth. In recent years governments have embarkedon a plethora of schemes to encourage childbearing, including a “women’shandbook” to educate young females on the high and lowpoints of their fertility, and state-sponsored matchmaking events.
隨著育齡婦女人數的減少，人口呈螺旋式下降的速度越來越快。5月份發布的一份報道預示，隨著年輕女性移居大城市，截止2040年左右，日本國內將有500個甚至更多的城鎮消失。日本的奧洞里已經在萎縮，這將危及將來的發展。近年來，政府已經實施了大量鼓勵生育的方案，其中包括發放“婦女指南”對婦女的生育能力高低峰進行指導，還有國家贊助的相親活動。
The chief reason for the dearth ofbirths is the decline of marriage. Fewer people are opting to wed, andthey are doing so later in life. At least a third of young women aim to becomefull-time housewives, yet they struggle to find men who can support atraditional family. In better economic times potential suitors had permanentjobs as part of the “lifetime employment” system. Now many hold down temporaryor part-time work. Other women shun marriage and children because Japan’sold-fashioned corporate culture, together with a dire shortage of childcare,would force them to give up their careers. Finally, young people are bound bystrict social codes. Only around 2% of babies are born outside marriage(compared with 30-50% in most of the rich world), which means that as weddingsplummet, so do births. Even for those who do start families, the rising cost ofchild-rearing often imposes a de facto one-child policy.
低生育率的主要原因是結婚率的降低。越來越少的人選擇步入婚姻殿堂，他們選擇在晚年結婚。至少有三分之一年輕女性的目標是成為全職家庭主婦，然而他們很難找到可以支撐起這種傳統家庭模式的男人。在經濟情況比較好的時候，她們潛在的求婚者擁有著“終身就業”體制內的穩定工作，但現在，很多人只有臨時或兼職工作。日本老式的企業文化以及嚴重缺乏兒童保育迫使婦女不得不放棄職業也是另一些婦女避開婚姻和生育的原因。最后就是，年輕人受到嚴格社會規范的制約，只有2%的嬰兒出生率發生在婚外（相比之下，大多發達國家達到了30-50%）。這意味著，結婚率下跌，出生率也跟著下跌。即使對于那些有孩子的人來說，養育孩子成本的增加使得他們往往只能落實一胎政策。
So far the government of Shinzo Abe hastalked about such steps, but shied away from taking them. Instead Mr Abe isacting to help women combine careers with children. Many demographers reckon itis already too late to lift Japan’s birth rate, now at 1.43children per woman. The eventual answer, they say, will be more shocking eventhan spiked prophylactics: mass immigration.
目前，安倍政府已經提到了這些措施，但卻在回避落實。相反，安倍先生正采取行動幫助女性兼顧職業和孩子。很多人口學家認為，提高日本的生育率為時已晚，現在日本女性人均生育率為1.43。他們說，最終的解決方法將比發放被刺的避孕套更令人感到震驚：大批移民入境。
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