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The rebalancing of global current accounts has been hailed as a major positive development since the financial crisis. But it is in the years ahead that the adjustment will face its most difficult test.
全球經常賬戶再平衡，一直被視為自此次金融危機以來的一項重要且積極進展。但未來幾年，才是這種調整面臨最嚴峻考驗的時候。
The slumps in demand that slashed developed world deficits are now giving way to recovery. In their absence, world leaders need to find new ways to correct lingering excess surpluses in countries like Germany and China and lift export restrictions in deficit nations such as the US.
需求滑坡使發達國家赤字大幅下降，但現在這種狀況正讓位于經濟復蘇。全球領導人需要找到新的方法，修正德國和中國等國家長期存在的過度盈余，并解除美國等赤字國家的出口限制。
The primary cause of the 2002-08 era of exploding imbalances was currency engineering. The largest surpluses emerged in countries with strong export industries that pegged their currencies to, or kept them competitive with, the US dollar. The lasting symbol of this period is the amassed foreign exchange reserves in China, the Middle East, and parts of the emerging world.
2002年至2008年失衡急劇擴大的主要原因是“匯率工程”(currency engineering)。盈余最大的國家，是擁有強大的出口行業，而且本幣盯住美元、或相對于美元保持競爭力的國家。這一時期一個長期存在的標志是中國、中東和新興世界部分國家的大規模外匯儲備。
It is commonly assumed there has been a major improvement in imbalances since 2008, and implicitly in global financial stability. China’s current account surplus with the rest of the world has fallen from close to $500bn in 2008 to $200bn this year, while the US deficit has more than halved from its peak.
人們通常認為，自2008年以來，失衡狀況出現巨大改善，全球金融穩定也有大幅好轉。中國相對于全球其他國家的經常賬戶盈余，從2008年的近5000億美元降至今年的2000億美元，而美國的赤字從峰值水平下降逾一半。
Demand driven rebalancing
由需求驅動的再平衡
Yet rather than corrections in exchange rates and reserve levels, the 2008-13 era of correcting imbalances has instead come about largely due to adjustments in domestic demand. Take the apparent correction in current account deficits. These would not have come about but for a collapse in imports. In Spain, imports have fallen 10 per cent from the peak in 2007, while in Greece they have dropped 40 per cent.
然而，2008年至2013年失衡得到修正的原因，并非匯率和外匯儲備水平的修正，而是在很大程度上源于國內需求的調整。以經常賬戶赤字的明顯修正為例，要不是進口大幅下挫，這些修正是不會出現的。在西班牙，進口從2007年的峰值水平下滑10%，而在希臘，進口下降了40%。
This is true not only for the eurozone. There is a clear link, since the financial crisis, between changes in domestic spending and changes in current account positions.
不僅歐元區如此。自此次金融危機以來，國內支出變動與經常賬戶狀況變動之間有明顯的相關性。
Broadly, countries that have suffered recessions have seen their deficits reduce (or surpluses increase), while those experiencing higher growth have seen the opposite. One cannot see a similar broad link between currency movements and trade balance changes.
大體而言，遭遇衰退的國家赤字縮小（或者盈余擴大），而那些增長較快的國家則相反。人們無法看到匯率走勢與貿易差額變動之間有著類似的廣泛相關性。
Given this dynamic, we must remain cautious. Imbalances may have been created by currency engineering but have apparently only been “solved” by recession. This means, instead of a single imbalance solved, we may now have two imbalances simply offsetting one another – one in currencies, and one in domestic demand.
鑒于這種狀況，我們必須保持謹慎。失衡可能是由“匯率工程”引發的，但顯然只是通過衰退得到了“解決”。這意味著，現在我們不是解決了一項失衡，而是可能面臨兩種互相抵消的失衡，一個是匯率失衡，一個是內需失衡。
It would therefore be unwise to declare victory over the era of imbalances until we have evidence that individual countries’ competitiveness and domestic demand are well aligned, and we begin to see foreign exchange accumulation slowing or stopping, indicating more fairly valued currencies.
因此，草率宣布我們已戰勝失衡時代將是不明智的，除非有證據表明單個國家的競爭力和國內需求很好地匹配起來，同時我們也開始看到外匯累積放緩或停止（這表明貨幣估值更為合理）。
Keep reform agenda rolling
繼續推進改革議程
Three global policy choices will be important.
未來，3項全球性政策的選擇至關重要。
First, the US would be well served if it lifted its ban on exports of crude oil. The country is likely to attain an energy surplus, due to the exploitation of shale reserves. The implication, a weaker global oil price, would serve to correct one of the world’s remaining imbalances (the Middle East surplus), and would be more helpful than concentrating supply in the US, reducing prices further and essentially subsidising energy-intensive US industries.
首先，如果美國解除其對原油出口的禁令，美國將因此獲得好處。由于頁巖儲備的開采，美國可能會實現能源盈余。其影響是，全球油價下跌，這將有利于修正全球還存在的另一項失衡——中東盈余。同時，比起將能源供應集中留在美國、進一步降低價格，從而實際上對美國能源密集型行業形成補貼，解除原油出口禁令對美國更有好處。
Second, the reforms announced at the Third Plenum in China will help ensure factor prices, including the currency, are more market-determined. This should eventually ensure China no longer needs to intervene in currency markets and accumulate foreign reserves. Already, deputy central bank governor Yi Gang has commented that it is no longer in China’s interest to increase reserves. China needs to ensure these measures are implemented.
其次，中國共產黨十八屆三中全會宣布的改革，將有利于確保包括貨幣在內的要素價格更多地由市場決定。這最終應能確保中國不再需要干預外匯市場并累積外匯儲備。中國央行副行長易綱已表示，擴大外匯儲備不再符合中國的利益。中國需要確保這些措施得以施行。
Third, Germany’s current account surplus is now the world’s largest. While a recently published Bundesbank paper concluded that current account imbalances are more persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime, this is little excuse for a slowdown in reforms. Even though the eurozone has entered a recovery, Germany still needs to increase its domestic demand to match its external competitiveness, just as the periphery has been forced to reduce domestic demand.
第三，德國的經常賬戶盈余現在為全球規模最大。德國央行(Bundesbank)最近發表的一篇論文做出結論稱，在固定匯率制度下，經常賬戶失衡更為持久，但這并非放慢改革的借口。盡管歐元區已步入復蘇，德國仍需要擴大其內需，以匹配其外部競爭力，正如外圍國家被迫削減內需。
Imbalances make the world a more vulnerable place. Large imbalances heighten the risk of “sudden stops” of funding that we have seen in both the eurozone and in emerging markets in recent years.
失衡讓這個世界變得更為脆弱。巨額失衡加大了融資“驟停”的風險，最近幾年我們在歐元區和新興市場都看到了這種驟停。
In the future, advancements in connectivity and manufacturing technology may make imbalances less likely to arise. But for today, it will be down to policy to help make the world a less vulnerable place.
將來，世界各國連通性的加強和制造業技術的進步可能會讓失衡不那么可能出現。但現在，要幫助世界變得不那么脆弱，還是得靠政策。
