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China's new leaders are counting on urbanization to remake the economy but have tried to limit the flow to the country's largest cities, fearing that a surge in migration could turn them into Latin American-style slums.
中國新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人正在指望城市化能重塑中國經(jīng)濟，但同時又在試圖限制流入中國大型城市的人口數(shù)量，擔(dān)心遷移人口激增可能導(dǎo)致這些城市出現(xiàn)拉丁美洲城市那樣的貧民窟。
Some urbanization specialists inside and outside China argue that the fear is largely misplaced. The problem with Beijing, Shanghai and other Chinese megacities, they say, is that they aren't even more densely packed─or better planned.
中國境內(nèi)外部分城市化專家認(rèn)為，這種擔(dān)心在很大程度上弄錯了方向。在這些專家看來，北京、上海和中國其它大城市的問題在于，這些城市的人口密度還不夠大，或者說這些城市的規(guī)劃還不夠好。
Adding more people to Beijing, for example─on top of the 18 million or so who already live here─would encourage better public transportation, boost land prices so high that factories would move away, and attract talented people with fresh ideas, according to these specialists. Imagine, say, Manhattan or Tokyo.
這些專家說，比如在北京現(xiàn)有大約1,800萬居住人口的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)增加人口能夠鼓勵有關(guān)方面繼續(xù)改進公共交通，將土地價格提高到工廠愿意選擇搬走的水平，并吸引帶有新鮮想法的優(yōu)秀人才。請試想一下曼哈頓或東京的情形。
'We have to let the market play a bigger role in the development of cities and dismantle barriers' to urban growth, said He Fan, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the government's most prestigious think tank. 'People prefer to move to larger cities because there is more opportunity there.'
中國政府最負(fù)盛名的智庫中國社會科學(xué)院高級經(jīng)濟學(xué)家何帆說，在城市發(fā)展過程中我們必須讓市場發(fā)揮更大作用，打破阻礙城市發(fā)展的藩籬。他說，人們喜歡遷徙到更大城市，因為那里機會更多。
Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is another big-city booster. 'When you see the situation in the large urban conglomerations, you say, 'Let's stop the growth,' ' he said during an interview in Beijing. 'But you probably don't want to stop the growth [because] a well-organized, predictable process of urbanization allows for a much better allocation of resources.'
經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)秘書長古里亞(Angel Gurria)是大城市戰(zhàn)略的另一大推動力量。他在北京接受采訪時說，當(dāng)你看到大城市集群的情況時，你可能會說別再變大了吧，但很可能不應(yīng)該停止，因為一個組織良好且可以預(yù)見的城市化進程會大大提高資源分配的效率。
Urban planners talk about 'agglomeration' effects─the idea that cities gain by having people more tightly packed. That's because travel by car becomes impractical and is replaced by public transportation. Also, old-line industries are forced to relocate because of rising prices, and lightly polluting service industries take their place. The influx of people brings an energy to a city that helps create new businesses and investment.
城市規(guī)劃者經(jīng)常談到“集聚效應(yīng)”，即加大人口居住密度可以讓城市獲益。這是因為靠私家車出行變得不切實際，公共交通工具取代了私家車。此外，傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)由于物價上漲被迫搬遷，污染較輕的服務(wù)業(yè)取代了它們的位置。涌入城市的人群帶來了一種能量，有助于創(chuàng)造新的企業(yè)和投資。
In Manhattan, with a density of 18,300 people per square kilometer, about 45% of the working population takes public transportation, for instance, says Jonathan Woetzel, China analyst for McKinsey Global Institute. In Charlotte, N.C., where population density is about 15% of Manhattan's, just 5% of the locals take public transportation. In China, says Mr. Woetzel, only downtown Shanghai approximates the public-transportation ridership of Manhattan.
麥肯錫全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)中國分析師華強森(Jonathan Woetzel)說，以曼哈頓為例。這里的人口密度為每平方公里18,300人，約45%的工作人口靠公共交通工具通勤。在北卡羅來納州夏洛特市(Charlotte)，其人口密度大約只有曼哈頓的15%，只有5%的當(dāng)?shù)厝顺俗步煌üぞ摺ＨA強森說，在中國，只有上海中心城區(qū)的公共交通載客量與曼哈頓相當(dāng)。
While China has some of the world's largest cities, it also has about 160 cities in the 200,000 to 1,000,000 population range. The fear of urban planners is that the government will try to develop them all, leading to a mishmash of highways, industries and pollution.
雖然中國有世界上最大的一些城市，但中國也有大約160座城市的人口在20萬至100萬人之間。城市規(guī)劃者的擔(dān)心是，政府將試圖發(fā)展所有這些城市，使得道路、工業(yè)建設(shè)和污染相伴而生。
China's government hasn't bought into the bigger-is-better argument so far, but it is listening to new ideas. The country's new premier, Li Keqiang, who has made urbanization a focus of China's economic reform plans, said the government had received 500 proposals on the subject at a March meeting of the largely ceremonial parliament. China's planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, says it will release a blueprint to guide urban-growth policies later this year.
雖然到目前為止中國政府尚未對這種城市規(guī)模越大越好的說法表示認(rèn)同，但它正在傾聽各種新的想法。中國新任總理李克強將城鎮(zhèn)化當(dāng)做了中國經(jīng)濟改革計劃的一個重點，他說在今年3月的“兩會”期間政府已收到了有關(guān)城鎮(zhèn)化問題的500項建議。中國的計劃部門國家發(fā)展和改革委員會說，它今年晚些時候?qū)l(fā)布一份藍(lán)圖，以指導(dǎo)中國的城市增長政策。
Chinese leaders argue that urbanization is crucial to remake the economy so it relies more on domestic consumption and less on exports, a long-sought goal by China and one its trading partners encourage. Rural migrants make higher salaries in the cities and their departure from the villages can boost incomes back home too, as demand for labor starts to outstrip supply in rural areas.
中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人稱，城鎮(zhèn)化對于中國經(jīng)濟的重新調(diào)整有重要作用，這種調(diào)整可以使中國經(jīng)濟增加對國內(nèi)消費的依賴，減少對出口的依賴，這既是中國一直尋求實現(xiàn)的一個目標(biāo)，也是中國的貿(mào)易伙伴所鼓勵的。農(nóng)民進城務(wù)工后可以獲得更高的收入，而他們離鄉(xiāng)外出也可提振其家鄉(xiāng)的收入水平，因為農(nóng)村地區(qū)的勞動力需求將開始超過勞動力供給。
'Urbanization will not only spur tremendous consumption and investment demands and create more job opportunities but also directly enrich the farmers,' Mr. Li said during his first news conference as premier.
李克強在其擔(dān)任總理后首次舉行的新聞發(fā)布會上說，城鎮(zhèn)化不僅可以刺激大量消費和投資需求，并創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)機會，還能直接讓農(nóng)民致富。
How best to manage urban growth is hotly debated. Urban specialists point out that many of China's cities aren't as densely populated as Singapore, Seoul or downtown Tokyo, which have made the transition to the consumer-led service-industry centers that China aspires to. Beijing is seen as especially poorly planned. It has about half of the population density of Seoul and is circled by six ring roads that encourage automobile use and urban sprawl.
管理城市增長的最佳方式是什么成為人們熱議的話題。城市專家們指出，中國許多城市的人口密度不及新加坡、首爾或東京城區(qū)。而這幾座國外城市已經(jīng)完成了向消費主導(dǎo)的服務(wù)業(yè)中心的過渡，中國渴望自己的城市也能實現(xiàn)這種過渡。北京市的城市規(guī)劃工作被認(rèn)為做得尤其差。北京的人口密度只有首爾的一半左右，它被六條環(huán)路層層環(huán)繞著，這種布局對人們駕車出行以及城市攤大餅似的向外擴張起了鼓勵作用。
In China, more densely populated cities, like cosmopolitan Shanghai and the central transportation hub of Wuhan, produce less pollution per person from cars and trucks than sprawling Beijing, according to the OECD.
經(jīng)合組織稱，中國那些人口密度更大的城市，如國際化大都市上海以及中部交通樞紐武漢，與城區(qū)面積廣闊的北京相比，這些城市的人均機動車污染物排放量較低。
Much more could be done to make China's largest cities more efficient, including expanding subways. The OECD says China's 10 largest cities have far less extensive rail systems to service downtowns than major cities outside China, though many cities are now in the process of adding subways. But China has long been wary of supersize urban centers for fear of creating slums like those surrounding some Latin American or African centers, or of worsening pollution or spurring centers of political opposition. Since China opened its economy in 1978, officials have tried to control the influx of migrants to coastal export centers by denying migrants the resident permits they need to collect social benefits or get their children into local public schools. Many migrants leave their children at home and eventually return to their villages to live.
在提高中國那些最大城市的效率方面還有很多工作可以做，比如擴建地鐵。經(jīng)合組織說，與國外的大城市相比，中國10個最大城市用于服務(wù)城市中心區(qū)人口的鐵路系統(tǒng)要薄弱得多。不過中國許多城市目前都在增建地鐵。但中國一直對超大規(guī)模的中心城市心存謹(jǐn)慎，擔(dān)心這會使中國像一些拉美和非洲國家那樣出現(xiàn)中心城市周邊貧民窟環(huán)繞的現(xiàn)象，害怕這會加重城市污染或催生出一批政治反對勢力聚集的中心。自從中國經(jīng)濟1978年對外開放以來，官員們一直在試圖控制人口向沿海出口中心流動，政府拒絕給流入沿海城市的人口辦理當(dāng)?shù)貞艨冢鴽]有當(dāng)?shù)貞艨谶@些人就享受不到其居住地的社會福利，其子女也無法進入當(dāng)?shù)氐墓k學(xué)校就讀。許多農(nóng)民工都將子女留在家鄉(xiāng)，并且他們最終也會返回家鄉(xiāng)生活。
Yukon Huang, a former China director for the World Bank, estimates that if such restrictions were eliminated, about 60% of China's population would now live in cities, rather than the current 52.6%.
曾任世界銀行(World Bank)中國局局長的黃育川(Yukon Huang)估計，如果以前取消了這類限制，現(xiàn)在中國人口將約有60%生活在城市中，而不是當(dāng)前的52.6%。
The government appears to continue to balk at a biggest-city approach. While Premier Li says he is in favor of 'coordinated development of large, middle and small cities,' he also warns of 'urban malaise' and the creation of shantytowns in cities 'filled with tall buildings.' Some China scholars note that he uses a Chinese word for urbanization─chengzhenhua─ that suggests giving priority to development of townships and smaller cities, rather than large ones.
政府似乎繼續(xù)回避超大城市的策略。雖然李克強說他傾向于大、中、小城市協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，但他也對城市病和在城市高樓中制造貧民區(qū)提出了警告。一些中國學(xué)者強調(diào)，他使用了“城鎮(zhèn)化”這個詞，表明要優(yōu)先發(fā)展城鎮(zhèn)和小城市，而不是大城市。
Mr. Woetzel, the McKinsey China analyst, says a smaller-city approach can work, particularly if such cities are linked to large, regional hubs. Globally, McKinsey estimates, much of the growth in the coming decades will come from cities with a population of less than 10 million. In China, Mr. Woetzel said, 'the sweet spot is cities of 1.5 million to 5 million people,' which have plenty of room to grow. He says Beijing has enormous power to route people to favored locations through financial credit, subsidy and residence-permit policies.
麥肯錫中國的華強森說，中小城市路線能夠行得通，尤其是如果這類城市連接著大規(guī)模的地區(qū)中心。麥肯錫估計，在全球范圍內(nèi)，未來10年的大部分增長將來自人口不到1,000萬的城市。華強森說，中國最理想的地方是人口在150萬至500萬的城市，這些城市有很大的增長空間。他說，中國政府擁有極大的力量，可以通過金融信貸、補貼以及居住許可政策將人們引導(dǎo)到政府青睞的地方。
But critics warn that such incentives won't work if ordinary Chinese think the new locations are lousy places to live. They point to the emergence of what Chinese call ghost cities─like the much-publicized city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia─places chock-a-block with new apartment houses, boulevards, commercial space, but largely void of residents. Expect more of these ghost cities, they say, if the government chooses wrongly where to build.
但批評人士警告說，如果普通中國民眾認(rèn)為新的地點不適宜居住，這類激勵政府就無法發(fā)揮作用。他們指出，“鬼城”已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，比如得到廣泛報道的內(nèi)蒙古鄂爾多斯市，這些地方滿是嶄新的公寓樓、寬闊的街道和商業(yè)空間，但基本無人居住。他們說，如果政府選錯了地方，預(yù)計會有更多這樣的鬼城。
Mr. He, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist, says spending heavily on infrastructure and real estate to build up smaller cities across the country could produce bad debts if the new projects don't pay off. The money would be better spent in the largest cities, he said, to build subways, clean up pollution and pay for social services for new residents.
中國社科院經(jīng)濟學(xué)家何帆說，為了在全國各地建設(shè)小城市而在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和房地產(chǎn)上花費巨資，如果新的項目不成功，就可能產(chǎn)生壞賬。他說，這些錢花在大城市更好，用來修建地鐵、治理污染以及用于支付新居民的社會服務(wù)成本。
While infrastructure spending on smaller cities could boost growth in the short run, Mr. He said, 'the problem would be a financial crisis down the road.'
何帆說，雖然小城市的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開支在短期內(nèi)可能提振增長，但問題是將來會出現(xiàn)金融危機。
Another priority, say the critics of Beijing's urbanization policies: abolish the residence-permit system over time, so people can live where they want. Some cities in China's interior would grow naturally, they argue, because housing prices are cheaper there and industries, looking to move away from high-cost coastal regions, are relocating there too.
對中國政府城市化政策持批評意見的人說，另一個政策重點是逐步廢除居住許可制度，讓人們可以自由選擇居住地。他們提出，中國一些內(nèi)陸城市將會逐步發(fā)展，因為那里的房價較低，希望離開高成本沿海地區(qū)的工業(yè)企業(yè)也正向內(nèi)陸轉(zhuǎn)移。
'You need to let entrepreneurs, ordinary people and businesses decide where they want to move,' said Kam Wing Chan, a China specialist at Washington University.
華盛頓大學(xué)(Washington University)中國城市化問題專家陳金永(Kam Wing Chan)說，你得讓創(chuàng)業(yè)者、普通民眾和企業(yè)自己決定想去哪里。
