
“MY COUNTRY is being destroyed,” sobs Ahmad, a student from the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor who joined the protests when they began in March 2011. “The regime is killing us, many of the opposition fighters are becoming criminals and the world is watching it like a film.” He is worried that onlookers may think this is normal, seeing that Syria lies in the centre of a region which is no stranger to wars and strife. Syria, with its chemical weapons, alliance with Iran, shrinking government and spreading militias, has become the confluence where all that is worrying about the Middle East comes together.
“他們毀了我的國家。”Ahmad哽咽道。Ahmad是北部城市Deir ez-Zor 的一名學生,2011年的3月游行開始時,他加入了抗議人群。當權者讓我們生不如死,而許多自由軍的戰士們變成了犯罪分子,世界卻袖手旁觀。”他擔心旁觀者們認為這不足為奇,因為敘利亞正處于一個充滿戰爭與沖突的區域的中心。敘持有化學武器,背靠伊朗的支持,政府正在逐漸衰微而自由武裝不斷擴張。人們對中東的各種擔憂在這里被匯聚在一起。
Two years ago Syria was a rather sleepy place. The muezzins’ call to prayer and the peal of church bells mingled above the rooftops of Damascus, the world’s oldest continually inhabited capital city, where Syrians liked to boast that Christians and Muslims, as well as people from a smattering of other sects, lived side by side in peace. People bustled through the markets. Women could stay out safely alone past midnight. Men played backgammon on the pavements with their neighbours. The Syrian accent, spread through the region by the country’s soap operas, conveyed hospitality and simplicity to fellow Arabs.
兩年前敘利亞還是一個很安靜的地方。宣禮員呼喚信徒們的喊聲混著教堂清亮的鐘聲,盤旋在大馬士革這個世界上歷史最悠久,人居綿延不息的內陸首都上空。敘利亞人以他們的基督教徒與穆斯林教徒為傲,也同少許其他教派和諧地居住在一起。市場熙熙攘攘。即使午夜過后,女人們在外逗留也沒有危險。而男人則和鄰居們站在路邊玩彈珠游戲(巴加門)。隨著肥皂劇的風靡,敘利亞口音也在整個中東地區傳播,把他們的好客和簡約的精神傳遞給其他的阿拉伯人。
Syrians take pride in their colourful history. Ancient buildings dot the landscape, from crusader castles to the exquisite Umayyad Mosque, the architectural masterpiece of an empire centred on Damascus that once stretched through north Africa and up into Spain.
敘利亞人為祖國多彩斑斕的歷史而自豪。古老的建筑散落在各處,既有十字軍城堡,也有精美絕倫的倭瑪亞大清真寺。曾有王朝以大馬士革為中心,那個王朝的建筑藝術瑰寶一直延伸到北非和西班牙。
Since Hafez Assad brought his family to power in a bloodless coup in 1970, Syria has had little to celebrate. An authoritarian state snuffed out discussion and creativity with its ubiquitous Mukhabarat and tortured those who caused trouble. Many Syrians were ready to accept this as the price of stability when Bashar Assad inherited the presidency from his father in 2000.
自從哈菲茲·阿薩德家族在1970年無血政變中掌權,敘利亞就乏善可陳。獨裁政府用無所不在的政治手腕扼殺討論與創造,并且折磨那些反抗的人們。當2000年,巴沙爾阿薩德從父親手中繼承了領導人的職位,許多敘利亞人已經準備接受這一切,就當作是穩定需要付出的代價。
At first the repression seemed to ease under the new President Assad, at least for those who stuck to the bargain and kept out of opposition politics. Life became a little sweeter in 2005 when Coca-Cola arrived. Internet cafés flourished, as did the software that let Syrians visit banned websites such as Facebook. Posters of the Assads still festooned walls across the country, but schools phased out the compulsory wearing of military uniform.
新總統阿薩德上任之后,對下的鎮壓有所緩和,至少對于那些逆來順受,遠離反對派的人們來說是如此。2005年,可口可樂進入敘利亞,給生活添加了一絲甜味。網吧生意紅火,與此同時,阻止敘利亞人登陸臉譜網的軟件也一樣普及。阿薩德的支持者依然在四處張貼標語,不過學校已經取消了強制學生穿軍隊制服。
Mr Assad’s stance against Israel and its main backer, America, through his alignment with Hizbullah (the Lebanese Shias’ party-cum-militia) and the regime in Iran, was popular with most Syrians. They had nothing against citizens from hostile countries: “We differentiate between the government and its people,” was a standard refrain during the American-led invasion of Iraq. But they pitied their brothers and sisters in Egypt for being ruled over by Hosni Mubarak, whom they saw as a wrinkled yes-man of the West.
阿薩德站在以色列以及以色列主要支持國——美國的對立面。他通過和真主黨(黎巴嫩什葉派政黨兼民兵組織)、伊朗結成同盟,贏得了大部分敘利亞人民的支持。敘利亞人民對敵對國的平民并沒有任何敵意。在美國進攻伊拉克時,這句話就是美國典型的陳詞濫調:“我們會對政府和平民區別對待。”但是敘利亞人民同情在穆巴拉克領導下的埃及兄弟姐妹們,他們認為穆巴拉克是對西方人唯唯諾諾的死老頭。
Today that Syria is no more. The uprising, which is now a full-blown civil war between Mr Assad’s forces and the opposition, has brought new freedoms. Young Syrians are no longer afraid to deride the regime openly. Even within the security forces, people discuss politics. “We all say things we wouldn’t have dared talk about in our own homes before,” says Aisha, a mother of four from Idleb province, in the north-west. Neighbourly bonds have sometimes grown strong amid the bloodshed. Altruistic bravery is common. Women risk their lives to smuggle medicine to rebel areas through the regime’s checkpoints, because the soldiers are less likely to search them. In Damascus people sleep ten to a room, welcoming relations who have fled from more dangerous areas.
今天的敘利亞已經大變。起義已經升級為政府軍和反對派的全面內戰,這給國家帶來了全新的自由。年輕的敘利亞人已經敢于公開的嘲諷當今政權。即便是保安部隊的內部人員也在討論政治。來自西北部省市伊德利卜的一位四歲孩子的母親愛莎說:“我們現在都談論一些以前在家里都不敢談的話題。”鄰里關系有時候變得比血親關系更為牢固。利他的英雄主義精神也隨處可見。女人冒著生命危險越過政府的檢查點,把藥品送到自由軍的地盤,因為士兵搜她們身的概率更小。在大馬士革,十個人擠在一個房間里睡覺,他們依然歡迎從更危險的地方逃難來的族人。
But these gains have come at a terrible price. War is tearing Syria apart. For months the country has been divided between Mr Assad’s forces and the rebel groups. Neither side has victory within its grasp. The rebels control swathes of land in the north and east, where the regime shells towns and villages and sends its aircraft to bomb military and civilian targets. The regime is determined to consolidate its grip along a north-south axis from Damascus through Homs and Hama (the country’s third- and fourth-biggest towns) to Latakia, the port and region that were home to the Assad family and its Alawite sect.
但這些收獲付出了慘痛的代價。戰爭已經把敘利亞撕碎。幾個月來,國家在政府軍和自由軍之間四分五裂。雙方都沒有勝算的把握。自由軍占據了北部和東部大片的土地,而政府軍以城鎮與鄉村為掩護,并且派出飛機炸毀軍事目標和民眾。政府軍決心鞏固從大馬士革到霍姆斯、哈馬再到拉塔基亞(分別為敘第三大、第四大城市)這條從北至南的軸線,因為拉塔基亞居住著阿薩姆家族和阿拉維教派。
At present, there is no chance of a political opening that could lead to serious negotiations between the opposition and the regime. The circle around Mr Assad refuses to contemplate his exit. Until recently the political opposition, which since November has been gathered under an umbrella calling itself the Syrian Opposition Coalition, had refused to negotiate unless Mr Assad goes first. He, meanwhile, has taken comfort from the solid financial and political backing of Iran. Russia, which supplies Mr Assad with money and weapons, has sometimes hinted that it will put pressure on him, only to step back at the last minute—possibly, Western diplomats speculate, on the personal command of Vladimir Putin. They believe that Russia’s president is determined to frustrate the West, especially America, and to prevent it from forcing change, as it did in Libya. A joint call from Russia and the Arab League for a negotiated settlement does not mean that calculation has changed.
目前,還沒有出現政治契機能讓反對派和政府軍進行嚴肅的談判。阿薩德的親信們拒絕考慮讓阿薩德退位。而截至最近,自由軍在12月在保護框架下結成了敘利亞反對派同盟,他們拒絕談判,除非阿薩德先退位。與此同時,阿薩德本人從伊朗對其穩固的經濟、政治支持上嘗到了甜頭。俄羅斯給阿薩德提供了武器與財力支持,時不時地暗示出將對阿薩德施加壓力。但俄羅斯總是在最后一刻改變了主意——西方的外交家們猜測很可能是普京本人下的命令。他們認為俄國總統決意要令西方失望,特別是讓美國失望。他決意阻止西方像利比亞事件一樣以武力行動來推進進程。
Western governments have struggled to keep up with what is happening inside the country. Fearing another Middle Eastern adventure in the wake of Iraq, the American administration has been reluctant to do anything beyond calling for Mr Assad to go. At a congressional hearing earlier this month Leon Panetta, the outgoing secretary of defence, and General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, revealed that they had recommended arming the rebels. Although this plan had the backing of Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, and David Petraeus, then head of the CIA, the White House vetoed the idea. Though Britain and France would like to ease the European Union’s arms embargo, some European states, including Germany and the Nordic countries, are set against doing so. On February 18th, at a meeting in Brussels, the EU endorsed a compromise resolution to provide more “non-lethal aid”. Members of the Syrian opposition grumble that even the West’s pledges of cash to the political opposition have not been honoured.
西方國家難以及時跟進敘利亞國內的情況。美國當局以伊拉克為鑒,不愿再次帶兵深入中東。因此,美國除了呼吁阿薩德下臺之外,不愿采取其他行動。在本月初舉行的國會聽證會上,即將離任的國防部長萊昂帕內塔以及參謀長聯席會議主席Martin Dempsey上將透露他們建議給反對軍提供武器。盡管該計劃得到了前任國務卿希拉里克林頓,中央情報局前局長David Petraeus的支持,仍然遭到白宮的否決。盡管英國與法國有意放松歐盟對武器的禁運規定,其他一些歐洲國家,包括德國和北歐諸國都反對放松禁運。2月18日,歐盟在布魯塞爾舉行的會議上通過一項折中的解決辦法——提供非致命性的幫助。與會的敘利亞自由軍代表抱怨,歐洲答應給予他們的資金支持至今還沒有兌現。
Opposition fighters, divided into numerous groups, varying from large battalions of a thousand to handfuls of men, get far fewer weapons than they had hoped. Gulf countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have supplied mostly light weapons, many through private donors. Libya has chipped in. But the rebels are equipped mainly with AK-47 rifles, home-made rockets and kit captured from Mr Assad’s arms depots and barracks.
自由軍的戰士們也分成了無數的派別,既有人數眾多的大軍,其中每營有1000人;也有十幾個人的小隊。他們收到的武器遠少于期望。海灣國家,比如卡塔爾沙特阿拉伯還有科威特,提供的大部分是輕型武器,許多還是私人捐贈。利比亞已經介入敘利亞事務。自由軍的主要裝備還是AK-47步槍,自制的火箭炮,從阿薩德的軍火庫和兵營繳來的成套裝備。
The din of battle
The UN reckons that 70,000 Syrians, mostly civilians, have died. The true figure is probably far higher: thousands have gone missing or have been locked up. In the past few weeks an average of 5,000 people have fled every day. The UN’s High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) says the number now exceeds 860,000, but many more have left uncounted. The number displaced within the country is higher still. More than 4m Syrians now lack fuel, electricity, a telephone line and food.
據聯合國估計,有7萬名敘利亞人在沖突中死亡,其中大部分是平民。真實的數字可能更大:還有成千人失蹤或者被羈押。過去的數周之內,每天平均有5千人外逃。聯合國難民事務高級專員辦事處稱難民數超過86萬人,還有許多未能統計到的人。在國內顛沛流離的難民數量更多。有超過400萬敘利亞人缺油斷電,通信被切斷,食物短缺。
A hardened and increasingly sectarian underclass on each side—disenfranchised mainly Sunni rebels and the regime’s mainly poor Alawites—is bearing the brunt of the battle. Middle-class Syrians and secular activists are leaving in droves. A lawyer in Tal Abyad, a border village north-east of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, bemoans the fact that armed rebels have displaced the civilians who sought to administer his town and the area around it. Yet the hundreds of rebel groups, despite their efforts to co-ordinate, have failed to jell into a coherent army with a chain of command. Each of them wants to stake out its own patch. Opposition groups seem keener to court their financial backers than to lighten the burden of local civilians.
兩方各自階級固化且人數不斷增加的社會底層人士,包括大部分被剝奪選舉權的遜尼派自由軍,以及占了國家大多數人口的貧窮的阿拉維教徒,他們承擔了戰爭的苦果。中產階級和不信教的激進分子都成群結隊地逃離敘利亞。有一名律師,他來自東北部城市Aleppo的一個邊境村莊 Tal Abyad,他為那些被武裝反對派轉移的平民哀悼。那些人原來立志要自己管理自己的家鄉。而成百上千的反對派派別,盡管他們努力相互配合,依然無法形成一支融合良好的軍隊,順利傳達命令。每一派都想占地為王。他們更愿意向他們的金主獻殷勤,而不愿意減輕平民的負擔。