原克萊斯勒(Chrysler)中國區主管、北京Synergistics汽車咨詢公司總裁羅威(Bill Russo)說:“中國的汽車工業實現了兩位數的堅實增長,主要受城市中產階級購車群體持續擴大推動?!?/div>
But he warned against over-optimistic assumptions over market growth, which has led to excess capacity, especially among state-owned domestic carmakers.
Local independents Geely and BYD have said they were optimistic about auto demand this year with the new government leadership in place.
“We are confident about this year’s growth,” said Lawrence Ang, executive director at Geely in Hong Kong last month. “China’s overall economy will be improved from last year, helping to boost vehicle demand.”
吉利汽車執行董事洪少倫(Lawrence Ang)上月在香港表示:“我們對今年的市場增長前景很有信心。中國的整體經濟形勢將好于去年,這有助于提振汽車需求?!?/div>
However, Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton cautioned in a note that despite stronger than expected first-quarter sales in China, future yearly growth was not likely to exceed 6-7 per cent.
但伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)汽車分析師馬克斯•沃伯頓(Max Warburton)在一份報告中警告稱,雖然第一季度中國的汽車銷售情況好于預期,但未來年度增幅不太可能超過6%至7%。
He said: “Capacity additions still look set to outstrip demand.” He expected the industry to add at least 3.8m units of capacity by the end of the decade.
沃伯頓稱:“目前看來產能擴張仍將超出市場需求。”他預計在2020年以前,中國汽車工業的產能將增長至少380萬輛。”
European and American car brands continued to take market share from Japanese rivals in China in the first quarter, auto analysts said, as the continuing political impact of a dispute over a set of islands left Japan’s carmakers struggling to recover ground.
汽車行業分析師們指出,第一季度在中國市場上,歐洲和美國汽車品牌繼續從日本競爭對手手中搶得市場份額,中日兩國圍繞一個群島的領土爭端所產生的持續政治影響,導致日本汽車制造商很難收復失地。
Luxury car sales in China continued to moderate from previous high double-digit levels, partly affected by the government’s austerity programme, which might have caused some buyers to delay ostentatious consumption.
豪華型轎車在華銷量增速持續放緩,低于早前兩位數的增長水平,部分受到政府部門厲行節約影響,這可能導致一些買方推遲炫耀型消費。
But medium-term growth in the luxury sector is expected to remain strong as few retail analysts are predicting permanent impact from the austerity campaign.
但豪華型汽車的中期增長勢頭預計仍將保持強勁,因為幾乎沒有零售分析師認為政府的節儉運動將產生長期影響。
“Compared with the US, Chinese [luxury car sales] will continue to grow at a stable and sustainable rate whereas the US and Japan are simply recovering from lost volume. China’s luxury market will probably double in size over the next five years,” Mr Russo said.
羅威表示:“與美國市場相比,中國的豪華轎車銷量將繼續以穩定的速度持續增長。而美國和日本的豪車銷售目前仍未回復早前水平。在未來的五年中,中國的豪車市場規模很可能擴大一倍。”