
Suffering from persistently weak economies, governments and central banks are experimenting with ever more aggressive – some say dangerous – monetary treatments. Countries are being enrolled, like it or not, in the economic equivalent of clinical trials.
由于患上了長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡之癥,各國(guó)政府和央行都在以前所未有的力度試驗(yàn)激進(jìn)的貨幣療法(有人會(huì)稱之為危險(xiǎn)的療法)。無(wú)論愿意與否,各國(guó)紛紛開(kāi)始了經(jīng)濟(jì)“臨床試驗(yàn)”。
Before embarking on a new course of treatment, the doctors ought to inspect the patients in the wards next door. I found myself last month visiting two countries following diametrically opposite courses of treatment: Portugal, perhaps the least demonstrative sufferer on the eurozone periphery; and Argentina, which has long injected economic drugs not registered elsewhere. Both are instructive – and discouraging.
醫(yī)生們?cè)诓扇⌒炉煼ㄖ埃环量匆幌赂舯诓》炕颊叩牟∏椤I蟼€(gè)月,我去了兩個(gè)所用療法截然相反的國(guó)家:一個(gè)是葡萄牙,這可能是受困的歐元區(qū)外圍最死氣沉沉的國(guó)家;另一個(gè)是阿根廷,該國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都在注射其他地區(qū)不敢用的經(jīng)濟(jì)“藥物”。這兩個(gè)例子都有啟示意義,也都令人沮喪。
Portugal belongs to a strong currency bloc – its money functions as a real store of value, and convertibility is not in question. But the place is stony broke, and these advantages, so dear in the abstract to business people, have little appeal to residents with no money at all. The new roads built with EU funds are deserted, since they carry a toll; traffic has been displaced on to the roads they were designed to relieve. People prefer double-parking their ageing cars in the narrow streets to paying a euro or two at the shiny new car park. The receptionist in the empty hotel arrives, after a long wait, to serve you a drink in the bar; he later turns up as a waiter in the restaurant. Though they have the gentlest manners in Europe, the Portuguese have begun to express their frustration in a frank and vivid style of graffiti. Everything is on sale and no one is buying.
葡萄牙屬于一個(gè)強(qiáng)勢(shì)貨幣區(qū),其貨幣可充當(dāng)真正的保值物,可兌換性也不成問(wèn)題。但葡萄牙一貧如洗,商務(wù)人士非常看重的那些抽象優(yōu)勢(shì),對(duì)于口袋空空的當(dāng)?shù)鼐用窀緵](méi)有吸引力。用歐盟(EU)資金建造的新公路無(wú)人問(wèn)津,因?yàn)槟鞘鞘召M(fèi)公路;新路本希望分流交通流量的老路,卻引來(lái)了許多車輛。人們喜歡把自家老舊的轎車并排停放在狹窄的街道上,而不愿花上一兩歐元把車開(kāi)進(jìn)明亮的新停車場(chǎng)。酒店里空蕩蕩的,等上好久后前臺(tái)接待才珊珊到來(lái),到酒吧間給顧客端上一杯飲料;后來(lái),此人又成了餐廳的侍者。盡管葡萄牙人的溫文爾雅當(dāng)屬歐洲之最,但他們已開(kāi)始用直白、生動(dòng)的涂鴉來(lái)表達(dá)內(nèi)心的沮喪。各種商品都在打折銷售,但買者寥寥無(wú)幾。
So poor Patient Fado, placed on an austerity-plus regime, is semi-comatose. The state spends as little as it can, and tries to extract ever more from its citizens, who seem to spend most of their time working out how to avoid paying. Fado’s ratios of indebtedness remain stubbornly high but the expensive foreign doctors believe a higher dose of the present medicine will, in the end, prove to be the right answer.
也就是說(shuō),在極度緊縮政策的作用下,可憐的病人法多(Patient Fado,指葡萄牙)已陷入“半昏迷”狀態(tài)。政府盡可能減少開(kāi)支,并努力從國(guó)民身上榨取越來(lái)越多的財(cái)富,而國(guó)民似乎把大部分時(shí)間用于算計(jì)如何避免花錢。法多的債務(wù)比率仍居高不下,但收費(fèi)高的外國(guó)醫(yī)生認(rèn)為,只要加大當(dāng)前用藥的劑量,最終可以治好法多的病。
In Argentina, by contrast, the currency is on a managed slide. There is plenty of it, though, and since it is fast losing its internal value – the government says inflation is at roughly 10 per cent a year; everyone else tells you it is more than 25 per cent – people are in a hurry to spend it. It is rather like Britain in the 1970s: you can buy air tickets and holiday packages in your own currency at the official exchange rate but you have no foreign currency to use once you arrive abroad. There are no new money flows coming into the country (though companies reinvest the profits they make there), Argentina has few external assets earning foreign currency, and it has no access to the credit markets, following a default still fuelling lawsuits 10 years later. So minor fluctuations in the trade account, which the government is obliged to micromanage, are all-determining. Banks are required to lend a substantial proportion of their deposit base at 15 per cent for “productive investment”: no pussy-footing about with persuasion here.
與此形成反差的是,阿根廷貨幣一直處于有管理的貶值中。不過(guò)貨幣量很充足,而且隨著貨幣快速失去內(nèi)在價(jià)值(政府表示,每年的通脹率大概為10%;但其他人都會(huì)告訴你,通脹率高于25%),大家都急匆匆地把錢花掉。這跟上世紀(jì)70年代的英國(guó)很相似:你可以按官方匯率使用本國(guó)貨幣購(gòu)買飛機(jī)票和度假套餐,但出國(guó)之后沒(méi)有外幣可用。沒(méi)有新的資金流入阿根廷(盡管企業(yè)把在那里賺到的利潤(rùn)進(jìn)行再投資),也幾乎沒(méi)有能賺取外匯的外部資產(chǎn),同時(shí)由于10年前違約引發(fā)的官司至今未了結(jié),該國(guó)被信貸市場(chǎng)拒之門外。所以,即使貿(mào)易賬戶(政府不得不對(duì)其實(shí)施微觀管理)發(fā)生細(xì)微的波動(dòng),也能產(chǎn)生決定性的影響。銀行必須把很大一部分存款以15%的利率貸給“生產(chǎn)性投資”項(xiàng)目;這里可沒(méi)有循循善誘的勸說(shuō)。
Patient Tango receives repeated stimulation. She is economically hyperactive, rushing to get her constantly increasing wages in the hospital shop (she is rarely allowed to go out). Her doctors say her ratios are wonderfully improved since her debt restructuring. Rather like Britain’s Patient Morris – now in a seedy hospital after a spell in the casualty department – she had been living way beyond her means. In the eurozone, Fado has been forced to stop and seems barely to be living at all. Tango has tried a different response, deciding those to whom she owes money are vultures, and it would be outrageous to pay them back, which has done wonders for her debt-to-gross domestic product number. They, in turn, do not seem that keen to pay for her treatment.
病人探戈(Tango,指阿根廷)不斷接受刺激療法。現(xiàn)在她患上了經(jīng)濟(jì)“多動(dòng)癥”,雖然薪水不斷升高,但一拿到手就往醫(yī)院的商店跑(她幾乎不能離開(kāi)醫(yī)院)。她的醫(yī)生表示,自從實(shí)施債務(wù)重組以來(lái),她的債務(wù)比率已神奇地大幅降低。與英國(guó)病人莫里斯(Patient Morris)很相像的是,探戈以前花錢如流水,過(guò)著入不敷出的生活;莫里斯經(jīng)急救科診療一段時(shí)間后,已被轉(zhuǎn)到一家破舊的醫(yī)院。在歐元區(qū),法多被迫停止,看上去毫無(wú)生氣。探戈則嘗試了不同的診治思路,她認(rèn)定自己的債權(quán)人是趁火打劫的家伙,還債給他們是沒(méi)有道理的,于是,其債務(wù)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)比率奇跡般地降低。反過(guò)來(lái),債權(quán)人似乎也不愿意為她支付治療費(fèi)用。
Morris has been for many years a patient under Dr King, an old-fashioned GP who used to tell him he was in fair health while warning him not to eat and drink so much. Now, after his heart attack, Dr King says he had been urging him to lose weight for years. Dr King is retiring and Dr Carney, new to the practice, is considering electroconvulsive therapy. He believes patients feel better if they are told they will be flat on their back for a long time. From time to time the saturnine registrar, a Mr Osborne, drops in and discusses amputation.
多年來(lái),莫里斯一直在接受金醫(yī)生(Dr King)的診治。金醫(yī)生總是一邊告訴莫里斯他的身體非常健康,一邊又警告他不要暴飲暴食。如今,在莫里斯心臟病發(fā)作之后,金醫(yī)生說(shuō),自己多年來(lái)一直在敦促他減肥。金醫(yī)生就要退休了,即將上任的卡尼醫(yī)生(Dr Carney)正在考慮施用電休克療法。卡尼醫(yī)生相信,如果告訴病人們他們需要臥床很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,他們會(huì)感覺(jué)好一些。每隔一段時(shí)間,臉色陰郁的專科住院醫(yī)生奧斯本(Osborne)會(huì)過(guò)來(lái)查房,討論是否要截肢。
Dear old Morris was put on a version of Fado’s regime, but with a much lower dose. Unlike Fado, he is not in a near-comatose state but he is not getting much stronger either. The temptation to switch to something more like Tango therapy, though without the un-British excess of default, is clearly growing.
吃盡了苦頭的老莫里斯被迫接受了法多那樣的療法,但用藥劑量要低得多。與法多不同的是,莫里斯還沒(méi)到接近昏迷的狀態(tài),但他也沒(méi)有變得更有氣力。對(duì)莫里斯來(lái)說(shuō),探戈式療法(剔除違約這種英國(guó)人不齒的過(guò)激行為之后)的誘惑力顯然在不斷增長(zhǎng)。
In Portugal, the quantity and velocity of money in circulation are both down; in Argentina, both are rising rapidly. Neither presents an attractive example. In Britain the Bank of England has prevented the quantity from falling too far, but seems unable to get the money moving. A little well-targeted fiscal relaxation feels less risky at this stage than more monetary experimentation. Doctors are enjoined, above all, to do no harm.
在葡萄牙,貨幣流通量和流通速度都在下降;在阿根廷,兩者都在快速上升。這兩種狀況都不令人向往。在英國(guó),英國(guó)央行已采取措施阻止貨幣流通量下降太多,但似乎無(wú)力加快貨幣流通速度。現(xiàn)階段實(shí)施少量有針對(duì)性的財(cái)政寬松政策,比更多貨幣政策試驗(yàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要低一些。畢竟,醫(yī)生的使命首先是不加重病情。