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Apple's (AAPL) share price was hit again Monday morning after several analysts reported that the company's orders to its suppliers are down. According to Topeka's Brian White, who monitors these things on a monthly basis, February's report was the worst on record.
蘋果（Apple）股價本周一又遭重創(chuàng)，原因是多名分析師報告稱，蘋果下調(diào)了對供應(yīng)商的訂單。托皮卡資本（Topeka）分析師布萊恩?懷特每月跟蹤蘋果銷售業(yè)績，他指出，二月份的情況堪稱史上最差。
UPDATE: The stock recovered, to say the least, at the end of the day. See Apple shares spike suddenly on high volume.
最新消息：蘋果股價又反彈了，至少當(dāng)天收盤時是如此。請參閱《蘋果股票突然放量上漲》一文。
Below: Excerpts from several analysts' Monday notes, plus what CEO Tim Cook had to say about such reports at Apple's January conference call.
下面是三名分析師在周一發(fā)布的報告，外加蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克在公司1月份電話會議上對這類報告的點(diǎn)評。
Brian White, Topeka Capital: February Apple Monitor Sales Miss Seasonal Trends. Final February sales for the Apple Monitor fell by 31% MoM, much worse than the average 8% decline over the past seven years, or when excluding a January Chinese New Year, down 15%. The Apple Monitor delivered the worst February we have on record. Most of the preliminary Taiwan Monitors experienced weaker than average trends this February including Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision with a 25% MoM sales decline in February. Maintaining $888 price target.
托皮卡資本分析師布萊恩?懷特：蘋果供應(yīng)商2月份表現(xiàn)疲軟。蘋果供應(yīng)商2月份的營收額環(huán)比下滑31%，而在過去7年，這一數(shù)字的平均值只有8%。即便將今年1月份的中國新年剔除在外，下滑幅度也高達(dá)15%。蘋果供應(yīng)鏈交出了有記錄以來最差的2月份報表。絕大部分臺灣供應(yīng)商2月份的表現(xiàn)都要差于往年，蘋果頭號供應(yīng)商、鴻海精密儀器（Hon Hai Precision）也不例外。它2月份的營收環(huán)比下滑了25%。結(jié)論：維持（蘋果）888美元的目標(biāo)股價。
William Power, Baird Capital: Concerns mounting near term. Checks by Baird's semiconductor team suggest iPhone 5 and total iPad procurement orders near our shipment forecasts, but below consensus. This appears to be consistent with our growing demand concerns exiting Mobile World Congress and already below-the-Street estimates. Additionally, we now expect a higher mix of iPad Minis, negatively impacting revenue and margins. Maintaining $465 price target.
布拉德資本（Baird Capital）分析師威廉?鮑爾：蘋果近期情況堪憂。布拉德的半導(dǎo)體團(tuán)隊指出，iPhone 5以及iPad產(chǎn)品的訂貨量接近我們此前的出貨量預(yù)測，但低于市場平均預(yù)期。隨著世界移動大會（Mobile World Congress）結(jié)束，我們預(yù)測市場需求或?qū)⒎啪彛壳暗臄?shù)據(jù)似乎佐證了這一看法。蘋果的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)低于華爾街的預(yù)期了。此外，我們預(yù)測iPad Mini的銷量占比將提高，蘋果營收和利潤率都將因此下滑。維持465美元的目標(biāo)股價。
Avi Silver, CLSA: Curbing our enthusiasm. Weaker iPhone trends continue to dictate the trajectory of Apple shares. We are comfortable with our Mar-Q estimates but lower our Jun-Q forecasts, reflecting lower iPhone sales and weaker iPad mix. Following a Jun-Q product lull, we expect new products (including iPhone mini) to expand Apple's emerging markets offering and return Apple to EPS growth in C2H. Also, increased cash returns could arrive in the next few weeks. However, a much-needed larger screen iPhone is unlikely in 2013, which could impact high-end smartphone share. Lowering price target to $505 from $575.
里昂證券（CLSA）分析師艾維?席爾瓦：我們的熱情有所減退。iPhone疲軟導(dǎo)致蘋果股價一路下滑。雖然我們對蘋果第二財季仍充滿樂觀，但由于iPhone和iPad銷售不佳，下調(diào)第三財季的預(yù)期不可避免。經(jīng)歷了波瀾不驚的第三財季后，蘋果有望發(fā)布新產(chǎn)品（包括iPhone mini在內(nèi)）。它將有效擴(kuò)大蘋果在新興市場的份額并使其每股營收重新上漲。此外，在接下來幾周，蘋果的現(xiàn)金回報率也會有所上升。不過，雖然大屏幕iPhone的呼聲很高，但在2013年仍無望上市，將影響蘋果在高端智能手機(jī)市場的份額。將目標(biāo)股價從575美元下調(diào)至505美元。
And finally...
最后是庫克的點(diǎn)評。
Tim Cook, From Apple's fiscal Q1 2013 Earnings Call: "I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these. I don't want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it's good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what's going on." (Transcript)
蒂姆?庫克，蘋果2013年第一財季營收會議：“這幾個月有關(guān)我們訂單減少之類的傳聞一直不絕于耳，所以我有必要對此做出澄清。我不想單獨(dú)評論哪條傳聞，因為這些傳聞太多，我一輩子都評不完。我只是建議大家，對有關(guān)蘋果生產(chǎn)計劃的任何傳聞最好都抱著懷疑的態(tài)度。我還要提醒大家，即便某些消息是正確的，但你絕不可能從中推出我們整體業(yè)務(wù)的狀況。因為供應(yīng)鏈非常復(fù)雜，而且我們每款產(chǎn)品都有很多供貨渠道，供應(yīng)商的產(chǎn)量時刻都在變，供應(yīng)商的表現(xiàn)也存在差異。初始庫存水平也可能發(fā)生變化。我的意思是，影響因素實(shí)在太多了，單靠某個數(shù)據(jù)點(diǎn)來判斷蘋果的現(xiàn)狀無異于盲人摸象。”（點(diǎn)擊此處查看庫克講話的全文）（財富中文網(wǎng)）
