美國《華爾街日報》記者:總理你好。通貨膨脹現(xiàn)在成為中國社會越來越突出的一個問題,高物價、高房價已經(jīng)直接影響到老百姓日常的生活。那么您如何評價政府已經(jīng)采取的措施呢?下一步有什么新的措施出臺?應(yīng)對通貨膨脹,您會不會考慮讓人民幣較快升值?
Wall Street Journal: Inflation has become an acutely felt problem in China's society. The rising consumer and housing prices have had a direct impact on the daily lives of the ordinary Chinese people. I would like to ask how do you evaluate the measures that the government has adopted in response. What new measures will the government take in the future? Will the government consider letting the RMB appreciate faster to fight inflation?
溫家寶:通貨膨脹就像一只老虎,如果放出來關(guān)進去很難。我們目前出現(xiàn)的通貨膨脹其實是國際性的,如果你看看整個國際形勢,由于某些國家實行量化寬松的貨幣政策,而造成匯率和大宗商品價格的大幅度波動,這不僅影響一個地方,就連歐洲也突破了2%。前幾個月,世界糧價上漲15%,如果再加上西亞北非局勢的影響,油價高企,超過每桶100美元。輸入型的通貨膨脹對中國有很大的影響,這也是我們難以控制的。另一方面,確實在我們國內(nèi)也有因為勞動力成本提高,各種初級產(chǎn)品價格上漲而造成的結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹。我們必須重視解決這些問題。我常講,通貨膨脹包括物價、房價都涉及人民群眾的生活,關(guān)系到他們的切身利益。因此,我們今年在政府各項工作中,把抑制通貨膨脹擺在了第一位。
Premier Wen Jiabao: Inflation is like a tiger. Once set free, it will be very difficult to bring it back into its cage. I believe that the current inflation is actually a global issue. Let's take a look at the international environment in this respect. Some countries have pursued a quantitative easing monetary policy. This has caused drastic fluctuations in the exchange rates of some currencies and commodity prices. It has affected not just one place or region. Inflation exceeded 2% even in European countries. In the past few months, the global grain prices rose by 15%. And the situation in some north African and west Asian countries has driven up global oil prices, which hit 100 US dollars per barrel. Imported inflation has had a big impact on China, and it is a factor that we can hardly control. At the same time, we have witnessed structural inflation in China due to rising labor cost and prices of primary goods. We must pay close attention to this problem and take measures to address it. I often say that inflation, including rising consumer and housing prices, affects the lives and immediate interests of the people. That is why the government has given top priority to curbing inflation in its work this year.
關(guān)于管好通脹預(yù)期、抑制通貨膨脹所采取的措施,我在《政府工作報告》里已經(jīng)詳細(xì)地講了。我不想再過多地重復(fù)。我只是講,對于管好通脹預(yù)期我們還是有信心的。去年11月份,我們消費物價漲幅達到5.1%。12月份,經(jīng)過努力,物價水平降到4.6%。今年上半年是我們比較困難的時期,大概記者先生也懂得,因為翹尾因素影響大。1月份,CPI達到4.9%;2月份,還保持在4.9%。但你知道,2月份翹尾因素的影響高達3.7個百分點。對于物價,我們不敢掉以輕心。我們是從三個方面來努力管好通脹預(yù)期的。首先,要發(fā)展生產(chǎn),特別是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn),以保障供給;第二,加強流通,特別是要加強農(nóng)產(chǎn)品流通這個薄弱環(huán)節(jié);第三,主要用經(jīng)濟和法律的手段管好市場。我們將持之以恒地把這項工作做到底。至于房價,我們也是三管齊下。第一,還是要控制貨幣的流動性。我想補充一點,對于物價這一點也是重要的,也就是說消除房價物價上漲的貨幣基礎(chǔ)。第二,運用財政、稅收和金融手段來調(diào)節(jié)市場需求;第三,加強地方政府的責(zé)任,無論是物價和房價,地方都要切實負(fù)起責(zé)任來。也就是說要堅持“米袋子”省長負(fù)責(zé)制、“菜籃子”市長負(fù)責(zé)制,房價也由地方來負(fù)主要責(zé)任。
I have explained in detail our measures to manage inflation expectations and control inflation in my government work report, so I will not repeat them here. I just want to emphasize that the government has the confidence to manage inflation expectations. In November last year, China's consumer price index rose by 5.1%. With hard efforts, we brought it down to 4.6% the following month. We still face a difficult situation in the first half of this year. I believe that you are aware of the carry-over effects on the CPI. In January this year, the CPI rose 4.9% and stayed at the same level in February. But the carry-over effect in February was as high as 3.7 percentage points. We must not take this issue lightly. We have taken the following measures to manage inflation expectations. First, develop production, in particular agricultural production to ensure sufficient supply. Second, improve the distribution system, in particular the weak links in the distribution of agricultural products. And third, mainly use economic and legal instruments to maintain good market order. We will make persistent efforts to manage the inflation expectations. Our measures to bring down the rising housing prices are three-fold. First, we must control monetary liquidity. This is actually important for controlling both the housing prices and consumer prices, because it helps eliminate the monetary conditions for surging consumer and housing prices. Second, we will make use of fiscal, taxation and financial instruments to adjust market demand. And third, we will intensify the responsibility of local governments. Local governments must assume their due responsibilities for controlling consumer and housing prices. Governors of provinces will take responsibility for the grain supply and city mayors will be responsible for the supply of non-grain food. Local governments will assume responsibility for bringing down surging housing prices.
你關(guān)心人民幣升值問題,我可以告訴你,我們將繼續(xù)堅持人民幣匯率形成機制的改革不動搖。如果從1994年算起,大的人民幣匯率改革已經(jīng)進行了3次。現(xiàn)在同1994年相比,人民幣的實際有效匯率升值57.9%。我們的改革主要是改變單一的盯住美元,而實行根據(jù)市場需求,參照一籃子貨幣,有管理的浮動匯率制度。我們將根據(jù)市場需求的變化來進一步加大人民幣浮動的彈性。但同時我們也必須考慮這種改革還是漸進的,因為它關(guān)系到企業(yè)的承受能力和就業(yè),我們要保持整個社會的穩(wěn)定。
You are interested in the issue of RMB exchange rate. Let me tell you that we will continue to pursue the reform of RMB exchange rate regime. We have taken three major steps in pushing forward this reform since 1994. Since 1994, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has appreciated by 57.9% against the dollar. The main aspect of our reform is to de-peg the Chinese yuan from the US dollar. We pursue a managed, floating exchange rate regime on the basis of market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. We will continue to make the RMB exchange rate more flexible in the light of the changes in market supply and demand. The reform of the RMB exchange rate regime should be a gradual process, because it affects our businesses and employment situation. We must ensure overall social stability in this process.