【英文原文】

QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER CHINA'S CONSUMER POWER
nyone scanning recent business headlines in China would not recognise the country where people supposedly save and never spend. In September, China Mobile's customer base crossed the half-billion mark – a powerful symbol of the awesome size of the nation's consumer market.

China has also become the biggest vehicle market in the world this year. Car sales expanded by 78 per cent last month from a year ago. Over the National Day holiday in early October, retailers reported a rush for large flat-screen televisions.

Throughout the biggest external crisis to hit the Chinese economy in at least a decade, one of the most surprising features has been the apparent strength of consumer demand. The headline figure for retail sales has increased in real terms by 16.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2009 – at least two percentage points faster than last year before the crisis.

With Beijing insisting it wants to shift its economic model towards greater domestic demand, and with many foreign governments urging China to rely less on exports, consumer spending is central to the post-crisis fate of both the Chinese and global economies.

The buoyant retail figures raise three questions. Is the increase real? Is it sustainable? And does it reflect a genuine rebalancing of the economy away from investment and exports?

While officials trumpeted the latest jump in retail sales yesterday, economists are sceptical of the figures. One problem is that official National Bureau of Statistics data include some government purchases, which are bound to have surged this year due to aggressive stimulus spending.

Government economists have played down the idea of booming consumer demand. A central bank report in August said urban residents' “impressions” about their incomes were at the lowest level since 1999. Meanwhile, Xu Xianchun, a vice-commissioner of the statistics bureau, published an article saying real consumption growth was well below the headline rate.

Even if the growth rate has been exaggerated, there is plenty of evidence from specific industries of stronger consumer demand, especially in rural areas.

“Rural residents have much more income than they did when I opened this store in 2003,” says Ge Zhongqiang, who runs an electronics shop in Xinba, a village in Jiangsu province. “They are spending a lot more on home appliances.”

Some people doubt whether rising demand can be sustained, pointing to several one-off incentives. Rural people have been offered subsidies to buy “white goods”, and taxes on small cars have been cut. JD Power, the auto consultancy, thinks the car-sale growth rate will fall sharply to 2-3 per cent next year.

Less temporary forces are at work, however. In recent years, the government has raised spending on health and education in the countryside, and is starting to introduce rural pensions.

Urban demand, meanwhile, is being boosted as millions move into the $4,000-$6,000 income bracket and shift from spending only on essentials to being able to afford more expensive items such as cars.

Chinese officials say such consumer demand is helping to rebalance the economy away from exports. They point to the fact that the current account surplus as a proportion of gross domestic product is likely to be much lower this year.

However, the latest data show that public investment has been the driving force behind the recent rebound. Yasheng Huang, an expert on China's economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says that before the government's stimulus spending, consumption accounted for only about 33 per cent of GDP, the lowest among the world's leading economies.

By increasing social spending, the leadership has started to repair some of the damage from the 1990s, when rural incomes barely grew. “But there is far too much emphasis on social transfers and not enough on the economic liberalisation that will really raise incomes,” says Prof Huang. And, he adds, China has still to get over its “investment fetish”.

【中文譯文】

一眼近期中國商業(yè)新聞的頭條，人們會(huì)認(rèn)不出這個(gè)國家，因?yàn)橹袊死響?yīng)是只會(huì)儲(chǔ)蓄、從不消費(fèi)的。9月份，中國移動(dòng)(China Mobile)用戶數(shù)突破5億大關(guān)，這是一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的象征，凸顯中國消費(fèi)者市場令人敬畏的巨大規(guī)模。

今年，中國還已成為全球最大的汽車市場。上月汽車銷量比去年同期增加78%。據(jù)零售商介紹，在10月初的國慶黃金周，顧客曾踴躍購買大屏幕平板電視機(jī)。

在至少10年來最大外部危機(jī)沖擊中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的整個(gè)期間，最令人意外的現(xiàn)象之一是，中國的消費(fèi)者需求明顯保持強(qiáng)勁。在2009年頭三個(gè)季度，整體零售額按實(shí)值計(jì)算增長了16.5%，比去年危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前至少高出兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

目前中國政府堅(jiān)稱，它希望把經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式轉(zhuǎn)向更大的國內(nèi)需求，而許多外國政府也敦促中國減輕對(duì)出口的依賴。在此之際，對(duì)中國乃至全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在危機(jī)過后的命運(yùn)來說，消費(fèi)者支出都是十分關(guān)鍵的。

高漲的零售數(shù)據(jù)帶來三個(gè)問題。這種增長是真實(shí)的嗎？它能夠持續(xù)嗎？它是否反應(yīng)了真正的經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡調(diào)整，即減輕對(duì)投資和出口的依賴？

盡管官員們昨日對(duì)零售數(shù)據(jù)再次攀升大肆宣揚(yáng)，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們對(duì)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)表示懷疑。問題之一是，中國國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(National Bureau of Statistics)的官方數(shù)據(jù)中，包括一些政府部門的采購，由于大力度的刺激支出，這方面的采購今年肯定會(huì)激增。

若干政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)消費(fèi)者需求旺盛的說法予以淡化。8月份中國央行在一份報(bào)告中表示，城市居民對(duì)自己收入的“感受”處于1999年以來的最低水平。與此同時(shí)，國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局副局長許憲春撰文指出，實(shí)際消費(fèi)增長遠(yuǎn)低于整體增長率。

即使增長率被夸大，但仍有來自特定行業(yè)的充分證據(jù)表明，消費(fèi)者需求更強(qiáng)了，尤其是在農(nóng)村地區(qū)。

“與我2003年開設(shè)這家店的時(shí)候相比，農(nóng)村居民的收入現(xiàn)在要高得多，”在江蘇省新壩村開有一家電子產(chǎn)品商店的葛忠強(qiáng)（音譯）表示。“他們?cè)诩矣秒娖魃系闹С鲈黾恿撕芏唷！?/P>

對(duì)于需求上升能否持續(xù)，有些人表示懷疑。他們指出，政府出臺(tái)了多項(xiàng)一次性的鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)措施，包括向農(nóng)村居民提供補(bǔ)貼，鼓勵(lì)他們購買“白色家電”，以及減免小排量汽車的購置稅。汽車業(yè)咨詢公司JD Power認(rèn)為，明年中國汽車銷量增幅將大幅降至2%到3%。

不過，更為持久的力量也在發(fā)揮作用。近年來，中國政府增加了在農(nóng)村地區(qū)的醫(yī)療和教育支出，并且正開始建立農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老金制度。

與此同時(shí)，隨著數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的城市居民進(jìn)入4000至6000美元的收入檔次，隨著他們的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣從只買必需品轉(zhuǎn)向購買汽車等比較昂貴的物品，中國城市的消費(fèi)者需求正得到提振。

中國官員表示，這種消費(fèi)者需求正幫助中國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行調(diào)整，減輕對(duì)出口的依賴。他們指出這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即中國今年經(jīng)常賬戶盈余占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比例，很可能會(huì)大幅降低。

不過，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，公共投資是近期反彈的主要推動(dòng)力量。美國麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)專家黃亞生(Yasheng Huang)表示，在政府刺激支出出臺(tái)之前，消費(fèi)僅占中國GDP的約33%，在全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中是最低的。

中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層通過增加社會(huì)性支出，已開始修復(fù)上世紀(jì)90年代留下的一些損害，當(dāng)時(shí)，農(nóng)村收入幾乎沒有增長。“但是，對(duì)社會(huì)性轉(zhuǎn)移的注重太大了，而對(duì)真正能夠提高收入的經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化不夠重視，”黃亞生表示。還有，他補(bǔ)充說，中國仍必須擺脫“投資迷戀”。