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Heavy industry may pass the costs of CBAM to EU firms that use the carbon-intensive inputs. The commission estimates this impact to be modest, with a slight dip in employment. Not everyone agrees. Farmers and unions are furious. Pekka Pesonen, head of Copa Cogeca, a farmers’ lobby, says that fertilisers account for about 35% of the cost of crops such as wheat. The CBAM would thus make it harder to compete with cheaper foreign grain. And the costs will be hard to pass on, because consumers are reluctant to pay more for low-carbon products, says Mr Pesonen.
重工業可能會將CBAM的成本轉嫁給使用碳密集型原料的歐盟公司。歐盟委員會估計，這種影響是溫和的，就業率略有下降。并不是每個人都同意這一點。農民和工會對此非常憤怒。農民游說團體Copa Cogeca的負責人佩卡·佩索寧說，化肥占小麥等作物成本的35%左右。因此，CBAM將使其更難與更便宜的外國谷物競爭。而且成本將很難轉嫁，因為消費者不愿意為低碳產品支付更高的價格，佩索寧先生如是說。
Firms’ reaction has been mixed. Many profess to support the energy transition but gripe about the rules. Others, including LafargeHolcim, a Swiss cement giant, say they welcome them. Still, Cedric de Meeus of LafargeHolcim notes that although cement-makers do not now pay for all their pollution, the rising price of carbon in Europe makes EU-made cement pricier than foreign stuff. As a result, the bloc imported 25% more cement in 2020 than in 2019.
企業的反應各不相同。許多企業聲稱支持能源轉型，但對規則怨聲載道。包括瑞士水泥巨頭拉法基豪瑞在內的其他企業表示接受。盡管如此，拉法基豪瑞的塞德里克·德米烏斯指出，盡管水泥制造商現在不用為他們造成的所有污染買單，但歐洲不斷上漲的碳價格使得歐盟制造的水泥比外國的水泥價格更高。因此，歐盟2020年的水泥進口量比2019年增加了25%。
Some trade groups are responding by lobbying lawmakers. With some success: in March the European Parliament passed a non-binding vote to keep the free allowances. Others will hedge by buying extra allowances when carbon prices are low, as power companies now do routinely.
一些貿易組織的反應是游說立法者。并取得了一些成功：3月份，歐洲議會通過了一項不具約束力的投票，決定保留免費補貼。其他公司則會在碳價格較低時購買額外配額來避免損失，就像電力公司現在經常做的那樣。
A few are reacting as the plan intended: by trying to decarbonise. In May Thyssenkrupp of Germany teamed up with the Port of Rotterdam to import renewable hydrogen to make green steel. Antoine Vagneur-Jones of BloombergNEF, a research firm, identifies 24 small-scale hydrogen projects in the CBAMed sectors.
一些企業正按照計劃所要求的做出反應：試圖脫碳。今年5月，德國蒂森克虜伯公司與鹿特丹港合作，進口可再生氫來制造綠色鋼材。研究公司BloombergNEF的Antoine Vagneur-Jones確認，在CBAM覆蓋領域有24個小規模的氫項目。
Decarbonisation is costly. Mr de Meeus says that making cement with a third less carbon adds some 15% to the cost. ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker and one of Europe’s largest emitters, expects to invest an extra $10bn to cut carbon by 2030. That could raise its capital spending by a third. But the firm also expects governments to cough up a similar amount. Its boss, Aditya Mittal, noted recently that renewable-energy firms enjoyed support from politicians. Other executives call for infrastructure, such as pipelines to funnel captured carbon dioxide from factories, as well as financial aid. The EU may need more carrots to go with its new stick.
脫碳是昂貴的。德米烏斯先生說，生產碳含量少三分之一的水泥會增加約15%的成本。安賽樂米塔爾是全球最大的鋼鐵制造商和歐洲最大的碳排放者之一，該公司預計將額外投資100億美元用以在2030年前減少碳排放。這可能將使其資本支出增加三分之一。但該公司也期望各國政府能夠支付類似的金額。該公司老板阿迪亞·米塔爾最近提到，可再生能源公司得到了政客們的支持。其他高管則呼吁建立基礎設施，比如從工廠收集二氧化碳的管道，并提供財政援助。歐盟可能需要更多的胡蘿卜來配合它的新大棒（譯者注：胡蘿卜加大棒是一句俚語，意為軟硬兼施）。
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