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Covid-19 may have made things worse, says Ross Tucker, a South African sports scientist. Since the effects of PEDS last much longer than the drugs stay in an athlete's body, elite competitors are subject to testing even when they are not competing. But travel bans and lockdowns have disrupted that system. Between covid-19, the fallout from Russia and a steady drip of other doping cases, every performance in Tokyo—even those by clean athletes—will take place under a faint but ineradicable cloud of suspicion. As Kyle Chalmers, an Australian swimmer who won the 100 metres freestyle at the 2016 summer Olympics in Brazil, put it last year, "I can probably not trust half the guys I'm competing against."
南非體育科學家羅斯·塔克表示，新冠疫情可能使情況變得更糟。由于興奮劑的效力比一般藥物在運動員體內停留的時間要長得多，所以不參加比賽的優秀運動員也要接受檢測。但旅行禁令和封鎖打亂了這一體系。在新冠疫情、俄羅斯的影響和其他興奮劑事件的持續發酵下，東京奧運會上的每一場比賽——即便是無辜的運動員——都將籠罩在淡淡的但卻無法消除的疑云之下。正如在2016年巴西夏季奧運會上獲得100米自由泳冠軍的澳大利亞游泳運動員凱爾·查默斯去年所說的那樣，“我的競爭對手里有一半我都信不過。”
No one knows how many athletes still dope. But a glance at the headlines suggests it is far from rare. In 2019 Nike, a sportswear company, closed down its much-publicised Oregon Project, a training camp for elite runners, after Alberto Salazar, the head coach there, was given a four-year ban for doping. (Mr Salazar is appealing.) Kenya is famous for the dominance of its middle-and long-distance runners. These days that reputation is looking tarnished. The Athletics Integrity Unit, which polices anti-doping in athletics, lists 68 Kenyan runners currently banned from competing, including Wilson Kipsang, a former Olympic medallist and world-record holder. Nor is it just athletes who are punished. In March Richard Freeman, a former doctor to Britain's all-conquering 2012 Olympic cycling team, was struck off by regulators for obtaining steroids in 2011 (Dr Freeman is appealing).
沒有人知道有多少運動員還在服用興奮劑。但只要看一眼頭條新聞就能知道這種情況屢見不鮮。阿爾貝托薩拉查曾是廣受關注的精英跑步者訓練營俄勒岡項目的主教練，2019年，在其因服用興奮劑被禁賽四年后，運動服裝公司耐克關閉了該項目。(薩拉查正在上訴。)肯尼亞以中長跑運動員的優勢而聞名，如今這一聲譽似乎已經受損。負責管理田徑運動中反興奮劑行為的田徑廉政組織列出了68名目前被禁止參賽的肯尼亞運動員，其中包括前奧運獎牌得主、世界紀錄保持者威爾遜·基普桑。受到懲罰的不僅僅是運動員。弗里曼曾是英國所向披靡的2012年奧運會自行車代表隊的一名醫生，今年3月，他因在2011年服用類固醇被監管機構除名(弗里曼博士正在上訴)。
When it comes to hard numbers, official statistics provide a lower bound to what is happening. In 2018, the most recent year for which there are data, 0.6% of the 263,519 blood and urine samples analysed by WADA-affiliated laboratories led to sanctions. Doping was more common in some sports—and some countries—than others. But WADA's numbers reflect only those who get caught. David Howman, once WADA's chief operating officer, says he thinks the real figure in elite sports might be more than one in ten—which would imply that over 90% of dopers were getting away with it. By and large, he says, only the "dopey dopers" get caught.
當談到硬性數字時，官方統計數據給出了當前情況的一個下限值。2018年，也是有數據的最近一年，在世界田聯附屬實驗室分析的263519份血液和尿液樣本中，0.6%會帶來制裁。興奮劑在某些運動項目和某些國家更為普遍。而世界反興奮劑組織的數據只反映了那些被抓包的案例。曾任世界反興奮劑機構的首席運營官的大衛豪曼說，他認為在精英運動中實際的數字可能超過十分之一，這說明超過90%的興奮劑服用者沒有受到處罰。他說，總的來說，只有那些“迷糊的興奮劑使用者”才會被抓。
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