Oversold over here
這里超賣了
The bull case for beaten-up Britain
對飽受打擊的英國來說是牛市
One of the vices of Britons is a penchant for mourning the country's decline. To be cured of this, Britain would probably need a different history. It was the first industrial nation. From that starting-point, its influence could only ever go in one direction: downwards. There is a large literature blaming long-term decline on sloth, complacency and amateurism. Brexit is just another opportunity to lament lost relevance.
英國人的惡習之一就是喜歡為國家的衰落哀悼。要想解決這個問題,英國可能需要一段不同的歷史。英國是第一個工業化國家,從這個起點開始,它的影響只能朝著一個方向:向下。大量文獻將長期的衰落歸咎于懶惰、自滿和業余,而英國脫歐只是另一個哀嘆失去相關性的機會。
This sense of decline is felt keenly in capital markets. Sterling was once the global currency but it now accounts for less than 5% of foreign-exchange reserves. Britain's money markets used to stand out in Europe for their high interest rates; but no longer. And Britain's stockmarket is a shadow of its former self. Big IPOS are as rare as rocking-horse dung. This scarcity along with years of share underperformance has seen Britain's share of global market capitalisation shrink markedly.
這種衰落感在資本市場尤為明顯。英鎊曾經是全球貨幣,但現在它只占外匯儲備的不到5%。英國的貨幣市場曾因其高利率而在歐洲脫穎而出,如今光環已不再,英國的股票市場已成昔日的影子。大型IPOS(首次公開募股)就像搖擺木馬的馬糞一樣罕見。這種稀缺性,加上多年來的股票表現不佳,使得英國在全球市場資本中所占的份額大大縮水。
So accepted has the narrative of decline become, that it is probably time to bet the other way. The economy is poised for a sharp recovery. London's bourse is stuffed with the shares of companies—miners, banks and energy firms—that ought to do well in an environment of rising inflation. And though fixing the structural deficiencies of Britain's capital markets is a big task, it is not impossible.
衰落已是事實,或許是時候賭一把了。經濟的迅速復蘇已經蓄勢待發。倫敦證券交易所充斥著礦業公司、銀行和能源公司的股票,這些公司在通脹上升的環境下應該會表現良好。盡管修復英國資本市場的結構性缺陷是一項艱巨的任務,但也不是不可能。
On cyclical grounds, there is a strong case for Britain. The immediate outlook for the economy is rosier than almost anywhere. That in part reflects the ground lost to covid-19. The Bank of England reckons that, even after a surge in activity this quarter, GDP will still be around 5% below its pre-pandemic level. But it is also because the vaccine roll-out has been impressively quick. There is a sense, too, that uncertainty is diminishing. Brexit is done. The world has kept turning. And politics is more stable. Even if a fight over Scottish, and possibly Northern Irish, independence still looms, the ruling Conservatives enjoy a handsome majority in parliament.
從經濟周期的角度來看,英國的復蘇有一個強有力的理由。經濟的近期前景比幾乎任何地方都要樂觀,這在一定程度上反映了新冠奪走的陣地。英格蘭銀行估計,即便本季度經濟活動激增,但GDP仍將比新冠前的水平低約5%。但這也是因為疫苗極快的推廣速度。還有一種感覺是,不確定性正在減少。脫歐完成了,但世界還在運轉,政治也更加穩定。即使圍繞蘇格蘭(可能還有北愛爾蘭)的獨立之爭仍隱約可見,但執政的保守黨在議會中仍享有可觀的多數席位。
The FTSE All-Share index is heavy with the kind of cyclical stocks that have been in favour recently. But, lamentably, it is light on the digital champions of tomorrow. This is not for lack of innovation. Britain is rather good at fostering startups. There are various tax breaks to help fledgling companies raise seed capital. Universities have grasped that business spin-offs are to be encouraged, says Anne Glover of Amadeus Capital Partners, a venture-capital firm. Britain has four in the top ranks: Oxford, Cambridge, Imperial College and University College, London.
富時全股指數中充斥著最近備受青睞的周期性股票。但令人遺憾的是,未來的數字領軍企業還沒有出現。并不是因為缺乏創新,英國非常擅長培育創業公司,有各種各樣的稅收減免來幫助羽翼未豐的公司籌集種子資本。風險投資公司Amadeus Capital Partners的安妮·格洛弗表示,大學已經意識到,商業剝離將受到鼓勵。英國有4所頂尖大學:牛津大學、劍橋大學、帝國理工學院和倫敦大學學院。
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