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經濟學人:土耳其的貨幣動蕩(1)

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There seemed to be no end to the unusual measures Turkey would take to shore up the lira.

土耳其為支撐里拉而采取的非正常措施似乎沒有盡頭。
The government had made it prohibitively hard for foreigners to bet against the battered currency.
政府使得外國人想要做空受重創的貨幣變得異常困難。
By the end of June the central bank had burned through $65bn in foreign reserves to protect it,
截止至六月底,央行已動用650億美元外匯儲備來保護里拉,
in effect pegging it to the dollar for the past couple of months.
實際上,是在過去幾個月里讓里拉釘住美元。
On August 6th, however, the bank gave up and allowed the lira to float. It promptly sank.
但在8月6日,央行放棄了該策略,并允許里拉浮動。里拉當即暴跌。
The currency fell by more than 3% during the day, reaching a record low.
一天內,里拉貨幣下跌超過3%,達到歷史最低值。
Turkey may now be facing a repeat of the crisis of 2018, when a standoff with America, a credit boom and a bulging current-account deficit
現在土耳其可能正面臨著2018年危機的重演,當時土耳其和美國關系陷入僵局,信貸繁榮和膨脹的收支往來帳戶赤字
forced the central bank to impose towering interest rates in order to prevent a currency meltdown.
迫使央行提高利率,防止貨幣危機。

土耳其的貨幣動蕩(1)

Its monetary-policy board meets on August 20th. But the bank is even less independent than it was in 2018.

其貨幣政策委員會將于8月20日會面。但央行的獨立性甚至不如2018年。
Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sacked its previous governor for refusing to slash rates.
土耳其總統雷杰普·塔伊普·埃爾多安解雇了不愿削減利率的前行長。
His successor is highly unlikely to raise them without Mr Erdogan's permission.
沒有埃爾多安的允許,他的接任者更不可能提高利率。
Another complication is that the bank's foreign-currency assets are depleted. Gross assets dipped to $90bn in July.
另一個問題是央行的外幣資產已經耗盡。七月,其總資產降至900億美元。
Net assets, which deduct foreign liabilities and borrowing through currency swaps with local banks, stand at -$41bn.
扣除外債以及通過貨幣互換向本地銀行的借款,凈資產為負410億美元。
"They have run out of ammunition," says Ozlem Derici Sengul of Spinn Consulting, an advisory group.
“他們已經彈盡糧絕了,”咨詢公司Spinn Consulting的Ozlem Derici Sengul說到。
"If they continue like this, they may have no hard currency left."
“如果他們繼續這樣下去,他們可能就沒剩下什么硬通貨了。”
Turkey can still try to restore investors' confidence in its management of the lira and the economy.
土耳其仍然可以嘗試恢復投資者對其管理里拉和經濟的信心。
But no one is certain it is willing to do so. For now, the government has begun cutting the money supply through the back door.
但沒人確定土耳其是否愿意這么做。目前,政府已經開始通過走后門,切斷貨幣供應。
Earlier this year, in an attempt to soften the blow from the covid-19 pandemic, state-run banks had flooded the market with cheap loans.
今年年初,為緩解新冠疫情對經濟的沖擊,國有銀行向市場提供了大量的廉價貸款。

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