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Officials could opt to abandon their tightening stance in order to counteract the trade turmoil. But that might erase the gains from the deleveraging.
官方可以選擇放棄他們緊縮的立場以求緩和貿易混亂。但這么做會抹去來自于減債的利益。
This explains their restraint so far. At a meeting of the Politburo on July 31st,
這也解釋了他們到目前為止所表現出的克制。7月31日，在一場會議上，
China's leaders noted that it was a priority to support growth amid the "clear change" in the external environment,
中國領導者注意到，在外部環境的“清晰變化”中支持增長才是首要任務，
but also pledged to press on with their efforts to control debt. Investors who had hoped for more easing were disappointed.
但是他們也承諾將加緊控制債務。寄希望于寬松政策的投資者們要失望了。
So there is cause for concern about China's growth outlook. But markets may be unduly pessimistic.
因此，對中國經濟增長前景的擔憂是有原因的。但是市場或許過度悲觀了。
One conclusion from the past few weeks is that policymakers now accept that the trade war is real, and are starting to cushion the economy.
從過去幾周得出的結論是現在決策者承認貿易戰是真實存在的，并且他們正在開始緩和經濟的沖擊。
The boost to exports from the falling yuan, down about 6% on a trade-weighted basis since mid-June,
人民幣貶值促進了出口（自6月中旬，在貿易加權基礎上下降6%）
should be "roughly proportionate" to the blow from the first $50bn of American tariffs and some of the next $200bn,
這應該與美國第一次的500億商品關稅以及接下來的2000美元商品關稅勉強成比，
says Andrew Tilton, the chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs.
高盛投資公司，亞洲首席經濟學家安德魯·提頓說道。
At the margins, he adds, China is shifting to a more active fiscal policy.
他還說，中國正在轉向更加積極的財政政策。
Officials have made it easier for cities to get funding for infrastructure projects.
由于官方的政策，各城市可以更加容易地獲得基礎設施項目資金。
One government adviser says there is discussion of a bigger stimulus, likely to be focused on promoting consumption rather than investment.
一位政府顧問表示他們對更大規模的經濟刺激計劃進行了討論，他們可能會專注于促進消費而非投資。
The economic backdrop to the trade war could also change over the next year.
在未來一年中，貿易戰爭的經濟背景可能也會改變。
As China tiptoes towards easing, its credit growth should pick up.
中國小心翼翼尋求寬松政策，其債務增長應該有所改善。
Meanwhile, America may be near the top of its growth cycle, with gains from last year's tax cut set to dissipate.
與此同時，美國或許靠近其生長周期的巔峰，其去年減稅收益開始消退。
Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, a research firm, says the divergence in their stock markets might reflect overconfidence in America
研究公司牛津經濟研究院的高路易表示，股票市場的分歧或許反映出了美國的過度自信
and an evaporation of confidence in China. "Both reactions seem exaggerated," he says.
和中國的信心蒸發。“兩種反應都被夸大了，”他說。
With no resolution to the trade war in sight, there will be time enough to test this proposition.
由于沒有應對貿易戰爭的最終方案，要測試這個命題，我們有的是時間。
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