評論
打印
Leaders: Big economic ideas Breakthroughs and brickbats
社論：重大經濟思想突破與板磚
What economists can learn from the discipline's seminal papers
經濟學家能夠從這一學科的經典論文中所學到的
It is easy enough to criticise economists: too superior, too blinkered, too often wrong.
批評經濟學家是再容易不過了：高高在上，眼界狹隘，錯誤頻頻。
Paul Samuelson, one of the discipline's great figures, once lampooned stockmarkets for predicting nine out of the last five recessions.
保羅·薩繆爾森，作為該學科的偉人之一，曾經為了預測到過去五次衰退中的9次而嘲諷股市。
Economists, in contrast, barely ever see downturns coming. They failed to predict the 2007-08 financial crisis.
相比之下，經濟學家幾乎從來都不去注意即將到來的危機。他們未能預測到2007-08年的金融危機。
Yet this is not the best test of success.
然而，這不是最好的成功驗證。
Much as doctors understand diseases but cannot predict when you will fall ill, economists' fundamental mission is not to forecast recessions but to explain how the world works.
如同醫生通曉百病卻不能預測人們會何時得病一樣，經濟學家的根本任務不是預測衰退，而是解釋這個世界是如何運轉的。
Over the next six weeks we will be running a series of briefs on important economic theories that did just that—from the Nash equilibrium, a cornerstone of game theory, to the Mundell-Fleming trilemma, which lays bare the trade-offs countries face in their management of capital flows, exchange rates and monetary policy;
在今后六周中，我們將刊登一系列短文，論述那些恰恰是完成了這一任務的重要經濟理論——從作為博弈論基石的納什均衡，到闡述國家在管理資本流動、匯率和貨幣政策時所面對的取舍的蒙代爾—弗萊明三難困境；
from the financial-instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky to the insights of Samuelson and Wolfgang Stolper on trade and wages;
從海曼·明斯基的金融不穩定假設到薩繆爾森和沃爾夫岡·斯托爾珀關于貿易和工資的洞見；
from John Maynard Keynes's thinking on the fiscal multiplier to George Akerlof's work on information asymmetry, the topic of this week's article.
從約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯對財政乘數的思考到喬治·阿克洛夫關于信息不對稱的研究，這是本周文章的標題。
These breakthroughs are adverts not just for the value of economics, but also for three other things: theory, maths and outsiders.
這些突破不僅是對經濟學價值的弘揚光大，也是對理論、數學和圈外人等其余三者的廣而考之。
More than ever, economics today is an empirical discipline.
如今，經濟學比以往任何時候都是一門實證學科。
Thanks to the power of big data, economists can track consumer behaviour in real time or know almost precisely how much a good teacher is worth to the lifetime income of children.
由于大數據的力量，經濟學家能夠實時追蹤消費者行為，近乎準確地知道一位好老師對于孩子終身收入的具體價值。
But theory remains vital.
但是，理論仍然非常重要。
Many policy failures might have been avoided if theoretical insights had been properly applied.
要是理論洞見得以正確地應用，許多政策失敗本來是可以避免的。
The trilemma was outlined in the 1960s, and the fiscal multiplier dates back to the 1930s; both illuminate the current struggles of the euro zone and the sometimes self-defeating pursuit of austerity.
三難困境在上世紀60年代就已經有了輪廓，財政乘數也可以追溯至上世紀30年代；兩者闡明了歐元區當前的困境以及時常是自欺欺人的緊縮追求。
The Nash equilibrium describes an outcome in which everyone is doing as well as they can given the strategies of others; it explains how countries compete with each other to cut tax rates in order to lure global capital.
納什均衡描述的是一種參與其中的每一個人在得知其他人策略的情況下能做而且正在做的事情的結果；它解釋了國家是如何為了吸引全球資本而競相降低稅率。
Nor is the body of economic theory complete.
經濟理論本身也不完整。
Big gaps remain in the understanding of financial markets, for example, and on how best to regulate tech platforms like Facebook.
例如，在對金融市場的理解方面，在如何最好地監管像臉書這樣的科技平臺方面，仍舊存在著巨大的差距。
The shortfalls are particularly glaring when it comes to modern macroeconomics.
這些缺陷在當代宏觀經濟學中尤其明顯。
From “secular stagnation” to climate change, the discipline needs big thinkers as well as big data.
從“長期停滯”到氣候變化，這門學科既需要大數據也需要大思想家。
It also needs mathematics.
它還需要數學。
Paul Romer, who is heading to the World Bank as its chief economist, has railed against “mathiness”, the habit of using algebra to disguise ideological positions.
即將出任世界銀行首席經濟學家的保羅·羅默猛烈抨擊了“泛數學化”（mathiness）——即使用代數來掩蓋意識形態立場的習慣。
Economic papers are far too formulaic; models should be a means, not an end. But the symbols do matter.
經濟學論文千篇一律公式化；模型應當是一種手段，不是一個目的。但是，這些符號的確至關重要。
The job of economists is to impose mathematical rigour on intuitions about markets, economies and people.
經濟學家的工作就是用數學的嚴謹來影響關于市場、經濟和民眾的直覺。
Maths was needed to formalise most of the ideas in our briefs.
在我們這個系列中，數學之所以有需要是為了讓大多數思想規范化。
In economics, as in other fields, a fresh eye can also make a big difference.
如同在其他領域一樣，在經濟學中，新人也能夠帶來翻天覆地的變化。
John Nash was only 21 when he set out the concept that became known as the Nash equilibrium;
納什在提出聞名遐邇的納什均衡概念時年僅21歲；
Mr Akerlof had not long completed his PhD when he wrote “The Market for Lemons”, the paper that made his name.
阿克洛夫在撰寫讓他成名的《檸檬市場》時剛修完了博士學位不久。
New ideas often meet resistance.
新思想經常碰壁。
Mr Akerlof's paper was rejected by several journals, one on the ground that if it was correct, “economics would be different”.
阿克洛夫的論文曾被多家期刊拒絕，其中一家的理由是：如果論文的思想是正確的，“經濟學會截然不同”為理由的。
Recognition came slowly for many of our theories: Minsky stayed in relative obscurity until his death, gaining superstar status only once the financial crisis hit.
對于許多理論來說，承認是慢慢地到來的：明斯基在去世前一直相對默默無聞；只有在金融危機襲來時才獲得明星地位。
Economists still tend to look down on outsiders.
經濟學家仍然傾向于小看圈外人。
Behavioural economics has broken down one silo by incorporating insights from psychology.
行為經濟學已經用吸收心理學這一真知灼見的行為打破了一座堡壘。
More need to disappear: like anthropologists, economists should think more about how individuals' decision-making relates to social mores;
更多的堡壘需要消失：如同人類學家一樣，經濟學家應當更多地去思考個人的決定如何與社會習俗相關連；
like physicists, they should study instability instead of assuming that economies naturally self-correct.
如同物理學家一樣，他們應當研究不穩定而不是假設經濟體自然地自我糾錯。
This could make the maths trickier still.
這或許會讓數學更加難以應付。
But not as hard as getting the profession to eschew its natural insularity.
但是，再難也沒有讓這個職業科避開其自然的偏狹那樣難。
譯文屬譯生譯世
