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Britain Sterling
英國 英鎊
Weaker still and weaker
屋漏偏逢連天雨
The downgrade of British sovereign debt by Moody’s did not spook the markets. But investors were already worried
穆迪公司下調了英國主權債務評級，沒有引起市場震蕩，但卻使投資者憂心忡忡
“We will safeguard Britain’s credit rating with a credible plan to eliminate the bulk of the structural deficit over a parliament,” read the 2010 Conservative manifesto. Well, so much for that. The decision by Moody’s, one of the three big rating agencies, to downgrade Britain from Aaa to Aa1 on February 22nd was a colossal embarrassment. Moody’s now ranks Britain’s credit lower than that of Luxembourgor the Isle of Man.
2010年，保守黨宣言稱，“我們將通過議會出臺一項減免大量結構性赤字的計劃來捍衛英國的信譽評級。”但那也只是說說而已。2月22日，三大信譽評級機構之一的穆迪公司，決定把英國債務評級從Aaa下調至Aa1。這項決定讓保守黨十分尷尬。目前，穆迪公司將英國的信譽評級排在盧森堡和英國的屬地曼島之后。
Will the downgrade harm the economy? In the past countries with lower credit ratings have had to pay higher borrowing costs. But neither America, which was downgraded in 2011, or France, which suffered a similar fate last year, have suffered much.
這樣的信譽評級的下降會對經濟造成危害嗎? 在過去的幾個世紀里，一個擁有低信譽評級的國家只不過意味著他需要支付更高的借貸成本。但不論是于2011年遭遇信譽降級的美國還是去年遭受同樣命運的法國，卻都蒙受了巨大的損失。
It is hard to spot an immediate impact in Britain, either. Investors had expected the ratings agencies to act after last year’s autumn statement revealed that the government was struggling to reduce its deficit on schedule. The two other big ratings agencies—Fitch and Standard and Poor’s—both have Britain on “negative watch”.Sterling dropped to a 32-month low against the dollar and reached its weakest level against the euro since October 2011, but gilt yields actually fell.
但是要立刻察覺出信譽評級的下調對英國經濟產生的影響是很難的。在去年秋天的一份報告中指出英國政府正在按計劃努力減少赤字后，投資者都盼望著信譽評級機構對英國會有所改觀。但是另兩家信譽評級機構惠譽和標準普爾都將英國評級下調至負面展望。英鎊兌美元的匯率連續32個月走低，英鎊兌歐元的匯率更是在2011年10月跌至歷史最低點。國債的收益也有所下跌。
Pull back a little, though, and the picture is more worrying. So far the pound is the weakest major currency of 2013. It has fallen even farther than the yen, where the decline had the explicit backing of the Japanese prime minister. In the past few weeks gilt yields have been rising relative to the cost of borrowing of the German government, too.
但是，反觀過去這段時間的走勢，其形勢更令人擔憂。時下，英鎊已算的上是2013年最疲軟的貨幣之一。英鎊比日元貶值的更多，但是日元的貶值狀況已經得到日本首相詳細規劃以期有所改善。在過去的幾周里，國債的收益有所提升，這與德國的借貸成本的下調不無關系。
Several things are making investors wary of British assets. As Moody’s noted in justifying its downgrade, the performance of the economy has been poor; figures released on February 27th showed that GDP had shrunk by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 and is still 3% smaller than it was in the first quarter of 2008. Growth forecasts for the next few years were lowered in the autumn statement.
一些事的存在不得不讓投資者對英國資產的態度變得謹慎。就在穆迪聲明證實英國信譽降級之時，英國經濟狀況就已經不佳了。2月27日公布的數據顯示，2012年第四季度中，英國的GDP縮水了0.3%，相比于2008年第一季度的GDP值還少3%。在去年秋天的一份報告中稱，對于未來幾年的經濟走勢并不看好。
A fall in the pound makes Britain’s goods cheaper for foreign buyers—a welcome tonic for exporters at a time when the current-account deficit is running at 3.5% of GDP. But sterling’s big decline in 2008 and 2009 did not cut the trade deficit. The downside of a weaker pound is that the price of imported goods, such as oil, will increase, further squeezing consumer spending. “It’s not just that our gilt outlook is weak; it’s not just that we’ve lost our triple-A credit rating; it’s that we’re really addicted to imported goods” says Jim Leaviss of M and G, a fund-management group. “A current-account deficit this large has historically preceded a sterling crisis.”
英鎊貶值對于外國買家來說是件好事，因為商品的價格更加便宜。而一向受歡迎，創造喜人收益的出口商，此時往來賬戶的赤字卻占據GDP的3.5%。但是2008年和2009年的英鎊貶值并未減少貿易赤字。疲軟的英鎊造成了一種下降的趨勢，這種趨勢使得類似石油這樣的進口商品的價格增加，并使消費者的手頭更加拮據?！爸栽斐蛇@樣狀況，不是因為我們國債的前景一片灰暗的，也不是因為我們已經失去了3A的信譽評級，而是因為我們的確是習慣于進口商品”，一位來自MG投資管理公司的吉姆·里維斯（Jim Leaviss）說道，“如此之大的貿易逆差使得它歷史性的領跑了這場英鎊危機?！?/div>
Higher import prices are also likely to ensure that the Bank of England continues to overshoot its 2% inflation target, as it has for the last 38 months. Indeed, the bank recently predicted inflation would stay above the target for the next two years. Despite this, three members of the nine-strong monetary-policy committee—including the governor, Sir Mervyn King—recently voted for more quantitative easing.
更高的進口價格也極可能把英格蘭銀行繼續送上超出它所定的2%通貨膨脹的目標的不歸路上，因為這已經持續38個月。事實上，英格蘭銀行最近也預測到，在接下的兩年里，這樣的通貨膨脹都將會超出預定目標。盡管有此預測，但在九強貨幣政策委員會中，包括英國央行行長默文·金恩(Mervyn King)在內的三名成員在，最近都投票支持實行更大規模的量化寬松政策。
With ten-year gilts yielding just 2%, domestic investors seem likely to lose money in real terms. Foreign investors might not be too keen to buy such a low-yielding asset in a depreciating currency. If Britain’s borrowing costs rise sharply, the government’s deficit-cutting task will be made even harder. However, this yield rise could be offset if the Bank buys more gilts in a further extension of QE.
10年期的國債收益僅為2%，實際上，國內投資國債的人極有可能在賠錢。在貨幣貶值的情況下，外國投資者可能不太會熱衷于購買這樣的低收益資產。假如英國的借貸成本激增，政府想要完成減赤的計劃就會更加困難。但是，假如英格蘭銀行在更大規模的量化寬松政策中，購買更多的國債，所增加的收益又會被抵消。
The good news is that the foreign exchange and government bond markets are an ugly contest these days, in which few options look attractive. The indecisive Italian election result reawakened investor fears about the stability of the euro zone, and may make gilts appear relatively safe, as was the case in 2011 and 2012. Both Japan and America could loosen their monetary policy further, an approach that may put pressure on their currencies. Britain is not the only country with problems.
這些天，外匯和政府債券市場進行了一場膠著的競爭，但雙方都并未成為投資者看好的投資對象，這算的是一個好消息。但懸而未決的意大利大選卻再度喚起投資者對歐元區經濟穩定的擔憂。但這樣的狀況對國債而言，還是相對安全的，這樣的結論在2011年和2012年都得到了印證。日本和美國都可能會進一步放寬他們的貨幣政策，并以此來作為對貨幣進行施壓的一種方法。由此可見，英國并不是被麻煩纏身的唯一一個，他并不孤單。翻譯：沈曉旭
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