VW bet on China nearly 30 years ago. Now it is the world’s biggest car market and VW has 18% of it, through two joint ventures. They sell 2m vehicles a year and plan to double this by 2018. A glut of cheap cars is hurting prices in China but VW’s premium models are doing well the group’s share of its Chinese ventures’ profits rose from 1.9 billion in 2010 to 2.6 billion last year. VW has long been big in Brazil (market share 22%), and is expanding fast in Russia (9%). The weakest BRIC in its wall is India, where its share is less than 5%. Suzuki, whose affiliate Maruti Suzuki has almost 50% of the Indian market, should have been the perfect partner there.
大眾在中國落戶已30年有余，如今中國是全球最大的汽車銷售市場，大眾公司通過在華的兩家合資企業，占中國市場的18%。在華每年賣出200萬輛汽車，并計劃在2018年將此銷售量翻番。雖然由于市場供過于求。廉價車價受到打壓，但大眾高檔車型銷量卻未受影響——集團在兩家中國合資公司的股份從2010年的19萬億歐元，上升至2011年的26萬億歐元。大眾長期主宰巴西市場（市場份額22%），并在俄羅斯迅速擴張（9%）。印度是大眾在金磚四國中勢力最薄弱的一國，大眾在該地的市場份額僅占不到5%，而鈴木的旗下的瑪魯蒂鈴木卻占有印度近50%的市場。鈴木本應成為大眾開拓印度市場的完美伙伴。
The “Beetlemania” that VW enjoyed in America in the 1960s, when its Beetle was the pioneer of smaller, cheaper cars, faded in the 1970s. Decades of weak sales and losses ensued. VW closed its Pennsylvania factory in 1988 because the cars it made were lousy. It tried importing from Mexico but couldn’t make this pay. Now, with a big new plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, a revamped dealer network and the successful launch of the new Jetta, a family saloon, VW is back on a roll in America. Its sales there rose by 23% last year to 444,000, and its aim of selling 1m cars by 2018 looks achievable. However, VW’s quality ratings in America remain well below average, according to surveys by J.D. Power.
19世紀60年代，大眾在美國掀起一股“甲殼蟲熱潮”，公司推出的甲殼蟲系列開創了小型廉價轎車時代。70年代，熱潮消退，銷售疲軟和虧損接踵而至。大眾不得不在1988年因產品質量問題，關閉了賓夕法尼亞的車廠。公司曾嘗試從墨西哥進口成品車，但卻入不敷出。現在，大眾在田納西州的查特努加市開設新廠，改進了經銷商網絡，并在新家用杰塔轎車的發行上大獲成功，以此宣告重回美國市場。去年，大眾在美國的銷量為44.4萬輛，上漲了23%，如此看來，大眾2018年售出1百萬輛汽車的銷售目標觸手可得。然而，據J.D. Power的調研顯示，大眾汽車的質量評分在依舊遠低于美國平均水平。
Like BMW, another admired German carmaker, VW seems to have succeeded because it is run by petrolheads. Mr Piech’s passion for engineering pervades the group. He is the strategist; Mr Winterkorn the get-things-done guy. Hans-Dieter Petsch, the chief financial officer, has helped a lot by controlling costs, says Max Warburton of Sanford C. Bernstein, an investment bank. VW’s other chiefs enjoy considerable freedom—unless they incur the chairman’s wrath.
同德國另一家享有盛名的汽車制造商寶馬公司一樣，大眾今天的成就或許是因為領導人都是車迷。皮耶希先生對汽車工程的熱情遍及整個大眾集團，他是出謀策劃的策略家。文德恩先生是落實計劃的實干者。首席財務官漢斯-迪特·珀奇則控制開支為公司貢獻良多，投資銀行桑福德-伯恩斯坦公司的馬克思·沃伯頓評論道。除非大眾的其他總裁惹怒了主席，他們還是能夠享受的相當大的自由。
For all VW’s success, it is rare to hear people outside the firm praising the “Volkswagen Way” as they once lauded the “Toyota Production System”. VW has ignored Toyota’s obsession with the production line, says Mr Warburton, and concentrated on saving costs through parts-sharing between models. It has managed to preserve a culture of permanent innovation and a willingness to take risks. If there is a Volkswagen Way, it is to be determined, diligent and attentive to detail, with a glint of ruthlessness.
大眾雖取得成功，但鮮有外人像當初稱贊“豐田生產模式”那樣贊揚“大眾模式”。文德恩先生說，同豐田不同，大眾并不迷戀生產線，而是注重通過不同車型間的零部件共享來節約成本。大眾成功的保存著永久創新和勇于冒險的企業文化。如果真有大眾模式可言，那必定是勤奮果斷，在專注細節中帶有一絲無情。
Still, plenty could go wrong. Toyota captured the top spot from GM in 2008, only to stumble on quality as it rushed for quantity. VW’s shared platforms make it vulnerable if one of them turns out to be flawed.
可能出差錯的地方還有很多。2008年，豐田從通用手中奪過頭名，怎料卻在急于提高數量時，被質量所羈絆。如果大眾生產的某一車型出現缺陷，那么公司所使用的共享平臺會使大眾集團變得不堪一擊。
Sprawl and loss of focus are another risk. Take the SEAT brand, for instance, which lost 225m last year. What is it for Mr Winterkorn describes it as VW’s “sporty, design-oriented” brand for young people. But how does SEAT’s new Toledo, which VW describes as “a practical, top-quality and affordable car for the whole family”, fit that image If VW already has one brand too many, SEAT is it.
無計劃的擴展和缺乏中心目標是另一種風險。以西亞特品牌為例，該品牌去年虧損2.25億歐元。緣何至此？文德恩先生將其描述為大眾旗下的一款專為年輕人設計的以“運動性和設計感為導向”的品牌。但是西亞特新推出的Toledo卻被描述為“一款實用質優的家庭適用車”，這又該如何匹配西亞特先前的描述？若說大眾的某一品牌已略顯多余，那必是西亞特。
An earlier growth spurt, during Mr Piech’s time as chief executive, led to VW’s brands churning out lots of competing models while overlooking popular new trends, such as the “compact multipurpose vehicle” pioneered by Renault with its Scenic. Upper-end Volkswagens and Skodas are now competing with lower-end Audis. SEATs, Skodas and VWs have different images but much in common under the hood. Relying on buyers’ brand loyalty has worked so far, but for how long Procter & Gamble, which is to toiletries what VW is to cars, stumbled after “taking on every competitor in every category in every region of the world at once,” as an analyst put it in The Economistlast week. That seems to be what VW is doing now.
在皮耶希先生擔任首席執行官時，大眾早期生意急劇增長，導致大眾旗下的品牌大量炮制對手車型，卻忽視了緊隨流行新趨勢，例如雷諾公司就以雷諾風景引領緊湊型多功能車的發展。大眾和斯柯達旗下的高端車型現今正與奧迪旗下的低端車型同臺競技。西亞特，斯柯達以及大眾的汽車雖外形不同，但內在結構卻極為相似。大眾集團依靠消費者對品牌的忠誠度一路走到現在，可這樣又能走多遠？正如某分析師在上周發行的《經濟學人》提出的那樣，大眾公司在汽車業的地位就如寶潔公司在化妝品業的地位，寶潔公司在“一次性同全球各地，所有種類的競爭對手較量”后開始蹣跚而行，大眾似乎正在復制寶潔的舊路。
VW is so big in China that it would be vulnerable to a downturn there. Likewise in Brazil, where its Chinese rivals are starting to encroach. And VW has a closer challenger in its rear-view mirror Hyundai-Kia, which is pushing upmarket while continuing to churn out small, good-value motors. It has around half of its home market in South Korea, is ahead of VW with a 9% share in America and is making inroads in Europe and emerging markets. And unlike VW, it does not have a profusion of brands to support.
大眾公司在中國的業務做的如此之大，一旦中國經濟開始衰退，大眾將會很容易受影響。在巴西亦如此，大眾的中國對手正著手同其爭奪巴西市場。而且還有一位挑戰者緊隨大眾身后：韓國現代汽車公司在大量生產物美價廉的小型車時，還在轉攻高端市場。現代公司占據了南韓本土市場的近二分之一，在美國則以9%的市場份額領先于大眾，并且現代公司正準備進軍歐洲市場和新興市場。而同大眾不同，現代公司旗下沒有大量的品牌來支持自己。
If the euro falls apart, VW’s German factories will suddenly find their costs denominated in expensive Deutschmarks. That cosy relationship with Lower Saxony (whose blocking stake the European Commission is seeking to remove) might become a burden if VW needed to make swift cuts to maintain profitability. If circumstances require a change of direction, the monoculture at the top of VW may react slowly. With so many executives close to retirement—Mr Piech is 75 and Mr Winterkorn 65—succession is another worry.
如果歐元瓦解，大眾在德國的工廠將突然發現，他們的生產成本將會以昂貴的德國馬克計算。若大眾想大刀闊斧削減開支以維持盈利，那么它同下薩克森州之間的親密關系將成為負擔（歐洲委員會正試圖轉移州政府持有的攔截性股權）。如果形勢逼迫大眾改變方向，大眾高層單一的文化又有可能反應遲緩。皮耶希先生現年75歲，文德恩先生65歲，大眾公司諸多執行官年近退休，繼任者又是另一個令人擔憂的問題。
However, such problems are hypothetical. As VW drives relentlessly towards world domination, Bernstein’s Mr Warburton says that Mr Piech “will go down in history as an automotive legend, in the same class as Gottlieb Daimler, Henry Ford and Kiichiro Toyoda.”
不管怎樣，上述問題純屬假設。伯恩斯坦的沃伯頓先生稱，當大眾毫不留情的駛向世界頂端統治全球時，皮耶希先生“將同戈特利布·戴姆勒，亨利-福特及豐田喜一郎，作為汽車界的傳奇人物名留青史。”
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