The results of this two-tier system have been meagre so far. The frenzy in the biggest cities stems from the central bank’s steady loosening of monetary policy over the past 18 months. Although warranted from an economic perspective, it was inevitable that low interest rates would drive asset prices higher. Initially, much of the credit pumped out by banks ended up in the stockmarket, but following its crash last summer, property beckoned as one of the few decent investment options in China (capital controls, which have been further tightened recently, make it hard for Chinese savers to invest their money abroad).
這種分而治之的房地產政策目前看來收效甚微。大城市房價飆漲的根源是央行在過去18月來逐步放寬的貨幣政策。盡管該政策的目的是為了拉動經濟，但低利率不可避免地會拉升固定資產價格。一開始，銀行釋放的大部分信貸涌向了股市，然而經歷了去年夏天的股災之后，房地產成為了投資者們為數不多的上佳選擇（資本管制最近也逐步收緊，這讓中國人很難把他們的存款投資到境外市場）。
For speculators looking at property, the excess supply in smaller cities was all too evident, so they turned instead to the megalopolises. Du Jinsong of Credit Suisse describes it as a form of groupthink. “Everybody—investors, developers, policymakers and bankers—thinks that first-tier cities are safe,” he says.
對于把目光投向房地產的投機客而言，小城市的房屋供給過剩太明顯，所以他們轉而看向大城市。瑞士信貸的杜勁松把這種情況描述為集體迷思：“每個人——投資者、開發商、政策制定者和銀行家——都認為投資一線城市更加安全?！?/div>
Even as the government tries to restrain the excesses, however, it does not want to snuff out the rally in the big cities altogether, for they tend to influence sentiment elsewhere. There are signs that this is beginning to happen. Housing prices started rising month on month in the biggest cities a year ago. In midsized cities (in China, those with populations of 5m-10m), prices have been rising for the past four months. In smaller cities (mere hamlets of 1m-5m), gains have been evident only for the past two months (see chart).
即使政府希望抑制這種過量投資，但并不打算把涌進大城市的各路資金全部趕走，以防他們對其他敏感領域施加影響。這種趨勢已經可見端倪。大城市的房價在過去的一整年中連月增長；中等城市（人口在五百萬到一千萬之間）的房價在過去四個月持續增長；而小城市（人口在一百萬到五百萬之間）的房價只在過去兩個月有明顯增長。
If this upturn lasts, some investors reckon it will spur construction. Commodities used to build apartment blocks, such as iron (girders) and copper (wires), have recovered slightly from their recent swoon, partly in the hope that China’s property market is also stirring (see article). Indeed, a series of mini-cycles in the Chinese housing sector over the past decade followed this sort of pattern: rising housing sales led to new building starts, which in turn pushed commodity prices higher.
如果情況能持續好轉，一些投資者認為它將會刺激建筑行業。如鐵梁、銅線這類用于建造公寓的材料商品，都已漸漸從最近的低迷期得以復蘇。部分以期中國房地產市場也將處于動蕩。的確，中國房地產行業過去十年一系列小周期活動都遵循這種模式：房產銷售上漲帶動新建筑的開發，新建筑的開發反過來推動材料價格上升。
Figures from the China Index Academy, a data provider, show that the stock of unsold homes has decreased recently, from nearly 30 months’ worth of sales early last year to 15 now. “A housing market with rising volume and prices clearly does not support the view that, on a macro level, China’s housing market is oversupplied,” notes Liang Hong of China International Capital Corp, an investment bank.
根據中國指數研究院提供的一官方數據顯示，未售房屋的存量在最近得以減少，從去年初近30個月的銷售量，減少至目前的15個月?！斑@個存量和價格并升的房地產市場顯然并不能從支持宏觀上中國房地產市場產能過量的觀點，”中國國際金融公司（投行）梁宏如是說道。
But there is a further vast increment of supply on the verge of coming to market, because developers slowed the pace of construction in recent years and in some cases halted it altogether.
但是大量的供房即將上市，因為開發商近年放緩了大興土木的節奏，一些建筑都已全部停工。
評論
打印
