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Germany and the euro
德國與歐元
The Merkel method
默克爾之道
Two books that take a close look at the woman at the centre of the euro crisis
兩本深入觀察這位處于歐元危機中心的女人的書
Angela Merkel: A Chancellorship Forged in Crisis. By Alan Crawford and Tony Czuczka.
《安格拉默克爾：危機煉成的總理之位》，Alan Crawford 和 Tony Czuczka著。
Europe's Deadlock: How the Euro Crisis Could Be Solved—And Why it Won't Happen.
《歐洲之僵局：歐元危機能如何解決—以及為什么這不會發(fā)生》，David Marsh著。
ANGELA MERKEL, Germany's chancellor since November 2005, is now the longest-serving national leader in the European Union. Her country is more dominant in the EU and the euro zone than ever. She is Germany's most popular politician, at home and abroad. She is unchallenged within her party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). And she is coasting to another election victory in September.
安格拉默克爾，自2005年11月以來一直擔(dān)任德國總理，是目前歐盟中任職時間最長的國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。她的國家在歐盟和歐元區(qū)中比其它任何時候都要處于更加主導(dǎo)的地位。無論是在國內(nèi)還是國外，她是德國最受歡迎的政治人物。在她所在的政黨，保守的基督教民主聯(lián)盟（CDU），無人能挑戰(zhàn)她的地位。而且，她正在全國巡回，準(zhǔn)備贏得9月選舉的又一場勝利。
Yet she faces a huge and continuing problem: the euro crisis. This is the big test for her political legacy. Making matters worse, many analysts now point fingers of blame at Germany. It is too austere, too insistent on fiscal consolidation even in recession, too prone to put the burden of adjustment on deficit countries, too dominated by lawyers, not economists. These complaints and her political longevity make Mrs Merkel an interesting subject for a book. Several have come out in German, but this work by Alan Crawford and Tony Czuczka, two Bloomberg journalists, is one of the first to appear in English.
然而，她面臨著一個巨大且持續(xù)的問題：歐元危機。這是對她政治遺產(chǎn)的一場大考。更加糟糕的是許多分析家現(xiàn)在都將矛頭指向了德國。它太過于緊縮，甚至在衰退時期仍太過于堅持財政整頓，太過于傾向?qū)⒄{(diào)整的重擔(dān)讓赤字國家去承受，太過于聽從法律人士而非經(jīng)濟學(xué)家。這些抱怨加上她長久的政治生命，使得默克爾女士成為寫書的有趣的話題。德國已經(jīng)有一些該題材的書出來了，但這本由兩位彭博社記者Alan Crawford和Tony Czuczka所著的書是英語世界中的第一本。
The two authors tell the euro story well, but their most interesting material is about her past. Such details, which include her upbringing in communist East Germany, her position as a woman in a man's world and her background as a research chemist, help to define her domestic politics and her approach to the euro. They also make her easy to underestimate: in 1998 she unsentimentally helped to push out her political mentor, Helmut Kohl, the man who did most to create the euro. She may be slow-moving, but she has been more effective than many with more obvious flair and charisma.
這兩位作者對于歐元的故事講述得很好，但他們最有趣的材料是關(guān)于她的過去。她在共產(chǎn)主義東德的成長教育、她作為一個女人在男人世界中的地位以及她作為一位化學(xué)家的背景，這些細節(jié)都有助于定義她的國內(nèi)政治和她處理歐元的手法。他們也使得她容易被低估：1998年，她無情地幫助趕走了她的政治導(dǎo)師赫爾穆特科爾，科爾是為歐元的產(chǎn)生出力最多的人。她也許動作緩慢，但她總是比其它許多人更加有效果、擁有更多明顯的才華和領(lǐng)袖魅力。
At home she is cautious, sceptical of government's ability to change things, solicitous of allies and quick to cut down challengers. Despite preaching change to other EU countries, she is no radical reformer. Indeed, she has pulled the CDU leftward, partly out of conviction but also to create more coalition options and steal votes from the Social Democrats. In the euro crisis she has favoured small, slow steps. When she is in doubt or gets conflicting advice, her instinct is often to do nothing. As an easterner, she has often leant as much towards Poland as towards France, Germany's traditional EU partner.
在國內(nèi)她是謹(jǐn)慎的，懷疑政府改革的能力，熱切關(guān)心盟友以及對挑戰(zhàn)者快速地斬草除根。盡管她游說其它歐盟國家作出變革，但她不是位激進的改革者。的確，她將CDU拉向左傾，部分是處于信念，但也是為了創(chuàng)造更多的結(jié)盟選項以及從社會民主黨挖選票。在這場歐元危機當(dāng)中，她偏向于小且慢的步伐。當(dāng)她不確定時或是聽到不一致的建議時，她的直覺常常是什么都不做。身為一個東德人，她常常更偏向于波蘭，這個在歐盟中的德國的傳統(tǒng)伙伴，而非法國。
All this may be fine at home, since Germany is humming along nicely. But it is problematic in the euro crisis. From its start in Greece in early 2010, Mrs Merkel has been reluctant to lead, careful of committing taxpayers' money and insistent on punishing the profligate. She has been bad at telling her voters how much they gain from the euro and how much they might lose if it falls apart. She has also favoured a simple morality tale of blaming fiscal incontinence for the crisis, when loss of competitiveness and failure to reform matter far more. And she has often found it hard to work with others: she eventually forged a relationship with France's Nicolas Sarkozy, but has not got on with his successor, Franois Hollande.
所有這一切在國內(nèi)也許是可行的，因為德國一路都過得很愉快。但這對于歐元危機是有問題的。自從歐元危機于2010年初在希臘爆發(fā)，默克爾女士總是不大愿意領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，對花納稅人的錢很小心，堅持懲罰揮霍浪費者。她不善于告訴其選民他們從歐元中獲益多少以及如果歐元解體他們可能損失多少。當(dāng)面臨競爭力喪失和改革失敗這些更加緊要的事情時，她也喜歡以一種簡單的道德故事的方式將危機歸咎于不一致的財政政策。而且她也常常發(fā)現(xiàn)難于他人合作：她最終與法國尼古拉薩科齊打造了關(guān)系，但對于他的繼任者弗蘭西斯奧朗德則沒有。
David Marsh's short book is a more sceptical take on the euro crisis. A seasoned Bundesbank-watcher and historian of the euro, he has long argued, as did the Bundesbank, that the single currency cannot work without fiscal and political union. Yet he acknowledges that this is unlikely to happen, not least because it would lack political legitimacy. So his preferred solution is to reduce the number of countries in the euro. But that too would not be easy, he concedes. In Berlin, the fear is that if any country quits, the euro could unravel all the way to the Rhine. Mrs Merkel clearly still has much to do to save the single currency.
David Marsh的短篇書對于歐元危機更加持懷疑態(tài)度。這位經(jīng)驗豐富的聯(lián)邦銀行觀察者和歐元歷史學(xué)家，他與聯(lián)邦銀行一樣，長期一來一直認為在沒有財政同盟和政治同盟的情況下，單一貨幣是行不通的。然而他承認這不大可能會發(fā)生，主要是因為這缺乏政治上的合法性。所以他的首選方案是減少在歐元區(qū)中的國家數(shù)目。但這也不是容易的，他退了一步。在柏林，人們害怕的是，一旦有國家退出，那么歐元的解體將一路蔓延至萊茵河。很明顯，默克爾女士仍有很多事情要做，以拯救這單一貨幣。
