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The music industry
音樂產業
Beliebing in streaming
高舉丁日的旗幟
Record bosses now hope that online streaming could become a big enough business to arrest their industry's long decline
唱片公司老板們正希望線上流媒體能成為一盤足夠大的生意，以阻止他們產業的長期衰退
AT THE headquarters of Pandora, an online-radio firm, in Oakland,
位于奧克蘭市的Pandora總部中，
about a dozen headphone-clad analysts fill in a long questionnaire as they listen.
約有12名頭戴耳機的分析員聽著歌曲信息，完成著一份很長的調查清單。
They rank whether a song's mood is joyful or hostile, the vocalist breathy or gravelly.
他們會將一首歌的基調做出分類，如歡快或狂暴；同時也會對歌唱家進行分類，如氣息流派或聲線沙啞型。
They note whether they can hear electric guitars, lutes or bagpipes.
他們會記錄一首歌曲當中是否有電吉他、琉特琴或風笛等等的樂器演奏。
Their ratings help to shape algorithms that push music to the service's 76m users.
他們的分類評級，是構成一款擁有760萬名用戶音樂服務的關鍵程序之一。
Pandora is in the vanguard of a revolution in which ever more consumers are streaming music over the internet to their smartphones or computers,
如今Pandora正是這樣一場革命的先鋒，消費者們正以前所未有的數量進入到音樂流媒體的世界當中，通過互聯網這一渠道，他們不再收藏音樂，
instead of owning collections of songs.
而是直接通過自己的智能手機和電腦收聽音樂。
For the first time since Apple popularised the paid download in 2003,
這是自2003年蘋果公司普及付費下載模式以來，
the record business is changing key again.
唱片行業的又一次巨變。
From wax cylinders via vinyl, cassettes and CDs to MP3s,
從乙烯樹脂制成的黑膠唱片，發展到了卡帶和CD唱片，再到了MP3，
it is undergoing another format shift—maybe,
此行業又將面臨一次音樂制式轉換。
some in the business muse, its last.
而有些人沉思道，或許這是唱片行業的最后一次變革。
Streaming services give music-lovers access to millions of songs,
流媒體服務能夠讓音樂愛好者們接觸成千上萬的歌曲，
but the services are not all alike.
但這些服務類型都不盡相同。
Online-radio versions, including Pandora and Apple's iTunes Radio, choose what consumers hear,
包括Pandora和蘋果音樂電臺在內的線上電臺模式，能夠為消費者們提供他們想聽的音樂，
and the firms make their revenues through advertising.
并且服務商將通過廣告業務實現盈利。
Others, such as Spotify and Deezer, let customers select songs from a catalogue of 20m-30m, charging premium subscribers a monthly fee.
另一方面，如聲破天和Deezer的服務商，則讓消費者們從200萬至300萬的曲目中挑選歌曲，并對高級會員收取月費。
Free services that stream music videos, such as YouTube, also get plenty of play.
一些免費的音樂錄影帶流媒體服務，如YouTube公司，也在市場中分到了一杯羹。
All the variants pay the record labels some fraction of a penny each time someone clicks on a song.
以上各類的音樂服務的每一次點播，都意味著需要給予唱片公司一定的報酬。
Streaming's rise makes music bosses as giddy as a bunch of teenage Beliebers queuing to see Justin Bieber.
流媒體業務的迅猛發展，讓唱片公司老板們都處于輕佻浮躁的狀態當中，就像一群排隊等著見丁日的丁日粉一樣。
Yet at first glance a report on March 18th by IFPI, a record-industry group, suggests that things are still getting worse.
然而，在最初看到唱片業組織IFPI在3月18日發布的報告之時，形勢不容樂觀。
Music labels' worldwide revenues fell by 4% last year to 15 billion, a reversal of 2012's slight rise.
與2012年的輕微上升截然相反，去年唱片公司全球收入為150億美元，較往年下降了4%。
But much of the fall was due to Japanese consumers finally giving up on CDs, as much as the rest of the world had already done.
但這很大程度上要歸因于日本消費者的轉變。他們終于放棄了對光碟產品的購買，跟上了世界其余國家早已達到了的市場態勢。
A closer look shows that streaming services are starting to bring the business back into profit in countries that have suffered steady declines, such as Italy.
而進一步細究可知，在一些音樂產業持續衰退的國家，比方說意大利，流媒體服務已經開始將這一行重新帶入盈利當中。
Streaming now has around 28m paying subscribers, and several times as many who use free versions.
如今，流媒體服務的付費用戶約為280萬人，免費用戶則是前者的數倍之多。
Last year subscription-based versions like Spotify had combined revenues of more than 1 billion, up more than 50% from 2012.
就像Spotify之類的以付費訂閱為基礎的服務商們，去年獲得了超過10億美元的總收入，與2012年相比業績上漲超過了50%。
That figure does not include online-radio firms, which last year had revenues of 590m in America alone,
這一數字并不包括線上電臺模式的公司。僅以美國當地來計算，去年線上電臺模式的公司獲得了5億9千萬美元的收入，
a rise of 28% from the year before.
較往年相比漲幅為28%。
In America, the largest music market, 21% of the industry's 2013 revenues came from streaming, whose growth more than offset declines in CD sales.
在全球最大的音樂消費市場美國，2013年唱片行業21%的收入來源于流媒體，而該項業務的增長效益超過了相抵之下光碟銷售的下滑。
Streaming services have taken off thanks to wider smartphone adoption, faster internet connections and the spread of cheap online cloud storage for music files.
流媒體服務的成功發展歸功于以下幾點原因：更廣泛的智能手機應用，更快的網絡連接，以及音樂文件的廉價線上云儲存服務。
Even so, only 4-5% of music consumers in America and Britain have so far signed up for subscription streaming,
即便在這樣的市場環境下，目前美國和英國的音樂消費者當中，僅4-5%訂購了流媒體服務。
says Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Consulting.
MIDiA咨詢公司的馬克·穆里根表示。
But if just 10% of the people in rich countries were to subscribe, the industry's fortunes would be transformed,
但只要富裕國家中有10%的人選擇訂購，那么整個唱片行業的命運將會轉變。
says Claudio Aspesi of Sanford C. Bernstein, another research outfit.
伯恩斯坦分析師克勞迪奧·阿斯佩西這樣認為。
YouTube, Google's popular online video service,
谷歌公司旗下最熱門的線上視頻網站YouTube，
is expected to launch a paid-for music-streaming service in the coming months, which should help boost the numbers.
有望在未來數月中實施對音樂流媒體服務的收費，而這將令付費的用戶數量激增。
So might bundling music with a mobile-phone subscription, as AT&T is doing with Beats,
將音樂與手機服務捆綁銷售也能達到同樣的促進效果，而這正是美國電話電報與魔音的合作項目。
a seller of headphones that has branched into subscription music.
魔音公司是一家躋身進入付費音樂領域的耳機銷售商。
Arms around the world
著眼全球
Having previously fought losing battles against technological change, record executives have been quicker to embrace streaming's surge.
在輸掉了前面幾場科學技術戰役后，唱片公司的老總們正迫不及待地依靠流媒體業務的快速增長打一個翻身仗。
Until recently Apple's iTunes was the sole king reigning over the digital-music realm;
直到最近為止，蘋果音樂一直是唯一一位統治著數字音樂世界的霸者；
now there are dozens of princelings.
而如今，則進入到了群雄并立的時期。
This gives more negotiating power to the surviving three major record labels, down from six 15 years ago.
這能讓僅存的唱片巨頭從15年前的6家縮減至目前的3家，擁有更多的談判優勢。
I see myself as an arms dealer selling to everyone who will buy, says a gleeful record executive.
一位心情愉悅的唱片公司老總說：我把自己當成一位軍火商，只要有人買，我就賣。
Streaming is also good news for independent labels, some of which are enjoying double the market share they had on CDs.
流媒體的發展對于獨立唱片公司來說，也是個極好的消息，其中一些公司將市場份額擴大到了光碟時期的兩倍。
It is also making it easier for music to travel beyond national boundaries.
與此同時，跨國界的音樂傳播也因此變得更為便利。
We are getting revenue from markets where we never had a presence in the physical world, such as Brazil,
現在，我們正從以前沒有進入過的實體唱片市場當中取得收入。
says Fredrik Ekander, the boss of Cosmos, a Swedish label.
瑞典唱片公司Cosmos的老板Fredrik Ekander表示。
Charles Caldas of Merlin, a licensing agency for independent labels, says streaming also helps monetise the nostalgia market.
查爾斯·卡爾達斯是全球性版權許可機構Merlin的CEO，而他認為流媒體同樣能讓懷舊之情轉換成利潤流入。
In the physical world more than two-thirds of sales are for new releases;
在實體唱片市場當中，超過三分之二的音樂銷售額是由新發行的歌曲構成的；
on Deezer only a third of songs streamed are new.
而在Deezer，只有三分之一的流媒體點播是新歌。
To distinguish themselves from rivals and help users navigate their vast catalogues, streaming firms are offering curated playlists,
為了勝過同行的服務以及為了更好地幫助用戶管理曲目，流媒體公司們提供了精選的播放列表，
compiled by algorithms, celebrities and consumers themselves.
而這份列表是由系統算法、歌手和消費者自身共同編制而成的。
Users can also see what their friends on social networks are playing, and share tracks and playlists,
用戶們不僅僅可以看到他們在社交網站上的朋友所聽的歌曲，還能對外分享歌曲和播放列表，
which helps new acts take off.
同時這也促進了新歌手的成長。
Avicii, a Swedish DJ, has become the most streamed artist on Spotify.
在聲破天網站上，一位瑞典DJ艾維奇成為了最多點播量的藝人。
Streaming is forcing a creative but undisciplined industry to pay more attention to data.
流媒體的發展令一個從前具有創造性但管理模式混亂的行業，變得更加注重數據處理。
In early March Spotify reportedly paid 200m for Echo Nest,
在三月初據報道稱，流媒體音樂服務Spotify宣布它已經收購了音樂智能技術公司Echo Nest，
which analyses data for music services and helps shape playlist algorithms.
后者為諸多流媒體公司提供數據分析，以及構建播放列表等服務提供支持。
Beats soon followed by purchasing TopSpin Media, which collects data to help artists connect with their fans.
魔音公司隨即收購了TopSpin Media，而這是一家能夠通過采集信息去幫助藝術家們與粉絲聯系的公司。
Warner Music Group recently launched a new label in partnership with Shazam, a music-recognition app.
華納音樂集團近期與音樂雷達合作成立了一家新的唱片公司。
Together they will trawl Shazam's listener data to identify rising artists to sign up.
他們將一起收集分析Shazam的聽音數據，以尋找并簽下冉冉升起的新星。
Providing the streaming services can be persuaded to share their data,
提供流媒體服務的商家，也能夠與唱片公司們分享自己的數據。
record labels will be able to see the response to new songs immediately,
而在這樣的情況下，唱片公司們能夠馬上得知一首新歌的反響，
and put marketing dollars behind those that strike a chord.
并能從中挑選出扣人心弦的歌曲，從而投入市場推廣資金。
Performers will get a better idea where their fans live, to optimise their tour schedules.
與此同時，音樂表演者們也能夠對他們自己粉絲的居住地有較好的了解，從而優化他們的巡回演出計劃。
The economics of streaming look quite different from those of earlier music formats.
流媒體的盈利模式與先前的音樂格式相比顯得十分不同。
On-demand streaming services pay a record label about three-tenths of a cent each time one of its songs is played,
以需求量為標準的流媒體服務商在每首歌點播之時，會給予唱片公司的3/10美分，
and online-radio services even less.
而網絡電臺服務商則支付得更少。
But music fans may play a favourite tune dozens, maybe hundreds of times,
但一些粉絲或許會連續播放一首自己喜歡的曲子數十遍，甚至上百遍，
so those fractions of pennies can add up.
因此這些零零碎碎的加總能得到一個很高的數字。
Streaming subscribers pay around 120 a year,
流媒體的付費訂閱者每年大約要支付120美元，
which is more than double what the average American music consumer spends.
而這一數字大約是平均美國音樂消費者花費的兩倍。
Yet some performers are unconvinced.
然而，一些歌手卻對此表示懷疑。
Thom Yorke, the lead singer of Radiohead, has called Spotify the last desperate fart of a dying corpse.
Radiohead樂隊的主場湯姆·約克將Spotify稱為一個垂死之人所放的絕望的最后一個屁。
Music services have responded by being more open about how artists are paid,
而服務商們對此的回應是，讓歌手們的收入方式更為自由，
and arguing that their cheques will grow larger as more people sign up, as has happened in Sweden.
并表示歌手們的收入會隨著付費訂閱人群的增加而增加，就像瑞典的案例一樣。
It is more complicated in countries with a well-established download market,
音樂市場狀況在一些早已建立起了下載規范的國家來說顯得更為復雜，
such as America and Britain, where industry executives worry that streaming may cannibalise downloads.
比如美國和英國，這些國家的老板們擔心流媒體服務或許會催生出將音像資料分割開來的非法下載。
However, the bigger issue for artists is that so few people overall pay for music, says Will Page, an economist at Spotify:
然而，Spotify的經濟顧問威爾·佩吉表示，對于歌手來說更大的問題是只有很少一部分人為音樂服務付費。
Half the population in the West spends nothing on music.
他說：目前西方國家當中的半數人口享受著免費音樂，
You can't cannibalise zero.
對此你可以不必擔心所謂的分割下載能夠損害唱片行業利益。
For years music has been a toxic place to invest.
多年以來，唱片行業都不是一個投資的好領域。
But the internet is at last bringing sexy back, as Justin Timberlake, a pop star turned actor and entrepreneur, might say.
但最終隨著網絡發展，唱片行業或許最終能像賈斯汀·汀布萊克所說的一樣，實現強勢回歸。
Since 2009 investors have poured more than 1 billion into digital-music services in private transactions.
自2009年以來，私人交易領域中投資者們已經對數字音樂服務投入了超過100億美元。
Speculation is mounting that Spotify, which was reportedly valued last year at more than 5 billion, will soon go public.
針對Spotify公司近期上市的傳聞越來越多，而據報道稱去年這家公司的估值已經超過了50億美元。
Shares in Pandora, already listed, have nearly tripled in the past year.
上市公司Pandora的股價在去年幾乎增長至原先三倍的水平。
Its market capitalisation is now almost 7 billion.
目前，該公司的市場價值約為70億美元。
Such valuations assume that the services' popularity will continue to grow,
從這樣的估價我們可以推斷出，流媒體市場的熱度將會持續上漲，
and that subscription-based ones will persuade a sufficient proportion of those using their free versions to upgrade to paid varieties.
并且付費訂閱的服務商也會令足夠大的一部分使用免費服務的用戶，升級進入到付費市場當中來。
Worryingly, churn tends to be high: around 46% of users of subscription services have either switched or say they plan to, according to Mr Mulligan of MIDiA.
令人擔憂的是，此行業的客戶流失率也很高：來自MIDiA機構的穆里根先生所提供的資料顯示，約有46%的付費訂閱用戶已經改變自己的音樂消費或者正打算改變。
Nevertheless, people in the record industry are talking about another golden age.
盡管如此，唱片行業的人都討論著新一輪黃金時代。
There is bound eventually to be a shake-out among the many new streaming services.
在這為數眾多的新進入市場的流媒體服務商當中，最終肯定會進行一次洗牌。
But for the music labels, it now seems clear that, once the physical CD has eventually gone the way of the wax cylinder,
但目前對于唱片公司來說，如果實體光碟最終像黑膠唱片一樣逐漸消亡，
they will still have a profitable way to exploit their catalogues,
那么他們也能找到另外一條有錢賺的路子，以繼續歌曲創作事業。
based on music fans being offered instant access to a near-limitless online jukebox.
而這條路，便是持續地為音樂愛好者們提供一個幾乎毫無限制的線上點播服務。
