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Finance and economics
財經(jīng)商業(yè)
Free exchange
自由互換
The once and future currency
貨幣的今天明天
A new book examines the world's love-hate relationship with the dollar
新書出爐：世界與美元之間的愛恨情仇
LUMPY, unpredictable, potentially large: that was how Tim Geithner, then head of the New York Federal Reserve, described the need for dollars in emerging economies in the dark days of October 2008, according to transcripts of a Fed meeting released last month.
根據(jù)上個月公布的聯(lián)邦會議記錄，起伏不定，難以預測，潛在市場巨大，這是時任紐約聯(lián)邦儲備長的蒂姆?蓋特納在2008年10月的黑暗日子里所描繪的新興經(jīng)濟體對美元的需求。
To help smooth out those lumps, the Fed offered to swap currencies with four favoured central banks, as far off as South Korea and Singapore.
為了平復需求中的大起大落，美聯(lián)儲決定與備受青睞的四家中央銀行互換貨幣，遠及韓國和新加坡。
They could exchange their own money for dollars at the prevailing exchange rate.
只要承諾日后將以同樣的匯率兌換回來，這些銀行可以用現(xiàn)行匯率把他們的貨幣換成美元。
Why did the Fed decide to reach so far beyond its shores?
為什么美聯(lián)儲會如此大動干戈？
It worried that stress in a financially connected emerging economy could eventually hurt America.
因為它擔心那些與它利益密切相關的新興經(jīng)濟體的困境，最終會殃及美國。
But Mr Geithner also hinted at another motive.
但是蓋特納也暗示了另外一個動機：
The privilege of being the reserve currency of the world comes with some burdens, he said.
美元作為世界儲備貨幣這一特殊名分，實在是讓人歡喜讓人憂。
That privilege is the subject of a new book, The Dollar Trap, by Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, who shares the world's ambivalence towards the currency.
康奈爾大學的埃斯瓦爾?普拉薩德同樣對美元喜憂參半。他在新書《美元之困》中講述的正是美元作為世界儲備貨幣的尷尬處境。
The 2008 financial crisis might have been expected to erode the dollar's global prominence.
2008年的金融危機貌似削弱了美元在全球的統(tǒng)領地位。
Instead, he argues, it cemented it.
可普拉薩德論證道，事實恰恰相反。
America's fragility was, paradoxically, a source of strength for its currency.
金融危機反而加強了這一地位。美國的不景氣偏偏是其貨幣堅挺的源頭之一。
In the last four months of 2008 America attracted net capital inflows of half a trillion dollars.
在2008年的最后四個月中，美國取得了5000億美元的資本凈流入。
The dollar was a haven in tumultuous times, even when the tumult originated in America itself.
在動蕩不定的時期—即使這樣的動蕩緣起美國—美元依舊是避風港灣。
The crisis also shattered conventional views about the adequate level of foreign-exchange reserves, prompting emerging economies with large dollar hoards to hoard even more.
這場危機同時也顛覆了對外匯儲備應保持適當水平的傳統(tǒng)觀念，促使那些原本就擁有龐大美元儲備的新興經(jīng)濟體囤積更多的美元。
Finally, America's slump forced the Fed to ease monetary policy dramatically.
最終，美國的不景氣使得美聯(lián)儲放松了貨幣政策。
In response, central banks in emerging economies bought dollars to stop their own currencies rising too fast.
作為回應，新興經(jīng)濟體的中央銀行買入美元，以阻止他們的貨幣升值過快。
Could Fed swap lines serve as a less costly alternative to rampant reserve accumulation?
美聯(lián)儲的互換路線能夠為目前愈演愈烈的外匯儲備囤積現(xiàn)象開辟一條代價較小的出路嗎？
If central banks could obtain dollars from the Fed whenever the need arose, they would not need to husband their own supplies.
如果這些央行能夠按需從美聯(lián)儲那里買入美元，他們就不必為自己的儲備精打細算了。
The demand is there: India, Indonesia, the Dominican Republic and Peru have all made inquiries.
需求是永遠存在的：印度，印度尼西亞，多明尼加共和國和秘魯都已經(jīng)在詢問此事。
The swap lines are good business: the Fed keeps the interest from the foreign central bank's loans to banks, even though the other central bank bears the credit risk.
互換確實是樁好買賣：美聯(lián)儲得以賺取其他外國央行在的借款利息，信用風險也由外國央行承擔。
The Fed earned 6.84% from South Korea's first swap, for example.
舉例來說，單是與韓國的第一次貨幣互換，美聯(lián)儲就得以將6.84%的利息納入囊中。
But it is not a business the Fed wants to be in.
然而，這一買賣美聯(lián)儲卻并沒想插手。
As one official said, We're not advertising.
正如一位官員所說：我們可不打算廣而告之。
Swap lines would help emerging economies endure the dollar's reign.
貨幣互換路線確實能夠幫助新興經(jīng)濟體在美元的統(tǒng)領之下繼續(xù)發(fā)展。
But will that reign endure? Mr Prasad thinks so.
但是這統(tǒng)領本身是否還來日方長？普拉薩德先生的答案是肯定的。
The dollar's position is suboptimal but stable and self-reinforcing, he writes.
他寫道：目前美元的地位雖不是最理想的，但卻非常穩(wěn)定，同時也能自我穩(wěn)固。
Much as Mr Prasad finds America's privileges distasteful, his book points to the country's qualifications for the job.
他發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管美元這種特權非常不受歡迎，美國這個國家還是能夠擔此重任的。
America is not only the world's biggest economy, but also among the most sophisticated.
美國不僅僅是世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體，也是最錯綜復雜的經(jīng)濟體之一。
Size and sophistication do not always go together.
規(guī)模和復雜度并不總是相依而存。
In the 1900s the pound was the global reserve currency and Britain's financial system had the widest reach.
20世紀初期，英鎊還是全球的儲備貨幣，英國的金融體系觸及廣泛。
But America was the bigger economy.
但在那個時候，美國已經(jīng)是最大的經(jīng)濟體了。
In the 2020s China will probably be the world's biggest economy, but not the most advanced.
在21世紀20年代，中國極有可能成為世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體，但絕不是最先進的。
America's sophistication is reflected in the depth of its financial markets.
美國人的智慧在金融市場的復雜性上得到了體現(xiàn)；
It is unusually good at creating tradeable claims on the profits and revenues that its economy generates.
他們極為擅長以經(jīng)濟體產(chǎn)生的利潤和收入為基礎，創(chuàng)造多種多樣的可交易性金融產(chǎn)品。
In a more primitive system, these spoils would mostly accrue to the state or tycoons; in America, they back a vast range of financial assets.
在一個相對原始的體系內(nèi)，這些戰(zhàn)利品將主要歸于國家或行業(yè)龍頭，但在美國，它們會以多樣的金融資產(chǎn)形式回饋給市場。
Mr Prasad draws the obvious contrast with China and its currency, the yuan, a widely hyped alternative to the dollar.
普拉薩德將最近炒得火熱的替代貨幣人民幣與美元相比較，結果出現(xiàn)明顯的反差：
China's GDP is now over half the size of America's.
中國當前的GDP總額超過美國的一半，
But its debt markets are one-eighth as big, and foreigners are permitted to own only a tiny fraction of them.
但其債務市場規(guī)模僅僅是美國的八分之一，外債只被允許占其中的一小部分。
China's low central-government debt should be a source of strength for its currency.
中國為數(shù)不多的中央國債應該是人民幣力量的來源之一，
But it also limits the volume of financial instruments on offer.
但這同時也限制了其所能提供的金融工具總量。
America has a big external balance-sheet, if not an obviously strong one.
美國的外部資產(chǎn)負債表并不強勁卻足夠龐大，
Its foreign liabilities exceed its overseas assets.
其對外負債超過了其海外資產(chǎn)，
But this worrying fact conceals a saving grace: its foreign assets are unusually adventurous and lucrative.
但這個令人擔憂的事實掩蓋了其可取之處：美國對外投資冒險精神十足且利潤豐厚。
Its liabilities, on the other hand, are largely liquid, safe and low-yielding.
而其負債大多流動性強，安全性高，收益率低。
America therefore earns more on its foreign assets than it pays on its foreign liabilities.
因此，美國從海外資產(chǎn)獲得的收益大于它用于外債的支出。
Alongside its economic maturity, America also has a greying population. This ageing is a source of economic weakness.
除了經(jīng)濟成熟度高，美國也背負著人口老齡化的問題。老齡化是經(jīng)濟疲軟的根源，
But, Mr Prasad argues, it may be another reason for the dollar's global appeal.
但普拉薩德認為，這也可能是美元受全球追捧的另一個原因。
America's pensioners hold a big chunk of the government debt that is not held by foreigners.
美國退休人員持有的國債量遠高于外債持有者。
A formidable political constituency, they will not allow the government to inflate away the value of these claims.
作為一個政治力量強大的選民團體，他們不會允許政府通過通脹消化掉這些債權的價值。
Thus America's powerful pensioners serve to protect the interests of its generous foreign creditors.
因此，退休人員巨大的影響力保護了大量外國債權人的利益。
America's sophistication has one final implication: the dollar has no long-term tendency to strengthen.
美國成熟的經(jīng)濟體還有一項關鍵的暗示：美元沒有長遠走高的趨勢。
That again contrasts with its principal long-run rival.
與之不同，其主要長期的對手中國仍然是一個追趕型經(jīng)濟體。
China is still a catch-up economy.
隨著與美國的生產(chǎn)力差距不斷縮小，
As it narrows the productivity gap with America, its exchange rate, adjusted for inflation, will tend to rise.
人民幣基于通脹調整后的匯率會趨于上升。
The yuan has appreciated by about 35% against the dollar since mid-2005.
自2005年年中以來，人民幣對美元已升值約35 %。
A self-deprecating currency
自我貶值貨幣
The dollar's depreciation over that period is, of course, bad for anyone holding American assets.
但凡持有美元的債權方都不希望美元在持有時期不斷貶值。
But the dollar is not merely a store of value.
但美元不僅是保值貨幣，
It has also become a popular funding currency.
它也是一種流行的融資型貨幣。
Banks and multinational firms borrow in dollars, even as they accumulate assets in other denominations.
銀行和跨國公司甚至在用其他貨幣積累資產(chǎn)時也會借入美元。
Since no one wants to borrow in a currency that only goes up, this is not a role that China's currency could easily play.
鑒于沒有人愿意借入只會升值的貨幣，人民幣自然不能如此收放自如。
Moreover, because of its role as a funding currency, the dollar tends to strengthen in times of crisis.
并且，由于其融資型貨幣的特點，美元往往在危機時期走強，
That explains why emerging economies feel a lumpy, unpredictable need for dollars.
這解釋了為什么新興經(jīng)濟體對美元的需求起伏不定，難以預測。
America's currency may not hold its value against others.
美元可能不會保持住其相對于他國貨幣的價值，
But in times of stress, the appeal of a dollar asset is that it always holds its value against a dollar debt.
但在非常時期，美元資產(chǎn)的吸引力在于它能始終保持其相對于美元債務的價值。
The dollar is a global hegemon partly because it is also a global hedge.
這種全方位的防御力某種程度上鞏固了美元的全球霸主地位。
