評(píng)論
打印
Business
商業(yè)報(bào)道
American industry and fracking
美國(guó)工業(yè)和水力壓裂技術(shù)
From sunset to new dawn
從日落到新的黎明
Capitalists, not just greens, are now questioning how significant the benefits of shale gas and oil will be for America. The new sceptics are missing the big picture
資本家們，而不僅僅是環(huán)保主義者們，現(xiàn)在在質(zhì)疑頁(yè)巖氣和石油的利益對(duì)美國(guó)到底有怎樣的意義。新的懷疑論者會(huì)看不到大局勢(shì)
Fracking the midnight oil
水力壓裂獲取午夜石油
IN A new book, The Frackers, Gregory Zuckerman says of the late George Mitchell, a pioneer of the technique of hydraulic fracturing to tap unconventional reserves of oil and gas, that his impact eventually might even approach that of Henry Ford and Alexander Graham Bell.
在一本新書《水力壓裂技術(shù)者》中，Gregory Zuckeman提及喬治·米切爾，運(yùn)用水力壓裂技術(shù)開發(fā)非傳統(tǒng)石油和天然氣儲(chǔ)備的先鋒，說(shuō)道：他的影響最終甚至?xí)_(dá)到亨利·福特和亞歷山大·格雷漢姆·貝爾的高度。
Yet of late doubters have been making themselves heard too.
但是近期懷疑者們的意見也傳了出來(lái)。
In October Peter Voser said that one of his biggest regrets as boss of Shell is the 24 billion his firm has invested in North America's shale beds.
十月份Peter Voser說(shuō)作為殼牌石油的老板的最大的后悔之一是他的公司在北美的頁(yè)巖層的240億美元的投資。
This summer, the firm took a big writedown on this investment and slashed its production targets.
這個(gè)夏天，這個(gè)家公司減少了這項(xiàng)投資并且大幅度削減它的生產(chǎn)量。
Also last month BHP Billiton, which spent around 20 billion in 2011 in a bet on shale, said it would auction half of its oil and gas acreage in Texas and New Mexico.
上個(gè)月，2011年在頁(yè)巖競(jìng)標(biāo)中花了大概200億美元的必和必拓，也會(huì)拍賣它在德克薩斯州和新墨西哥一半的有石油和天然氣的土地。
It is not just the biggest energy companies that have turned sceptical on shale.
不僅僅是最大的能源公司對(duì)頁(yè)巖有懷疑。
More than a dozen chief executives of smaller firms specialising in unconventional gas and oil have lost their jobs this year, as the firms' troubles have made them the targets of activist investors.
更多專注于非傳統(tǒng)燃?xì)夂褪偷妮^小公司的首席執(zhí)行官今年也丟掉了工作，由于公司的困難使他們成為了激進(jìn)的投資者的目標(biāo)。
Adding to the general air of negativity, last month economists at Goldman Sachs put out a report arguing that even at its current cheap price, shale gas would provide only a modest boost to the American economy as a whole.
上個(gè)月高盛投資銀行的一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家提出一份報(bào)告辯稱甚至在它目前的便宜價(jià)格，頁(yè)巖氣也僅僅為美國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)提供一個(gè)謙虛的繁榮，更是增添了整個(gè)的消極氛圍。
It argued that the energy industry is itself a fairly small part of the economy and creates relatively few jobs; and it was doubtful about the pace of innovation in fracking, and the extent to which cheap energy will prompt other industries to invest more.
報(bào)告說(shuō)能源產(chǎn)業(yè)自身是經(jīng)濟(jì)非常小的一個(gè)部分并且創(chuàng)造相對(duì)較少的工作；并且關(guān)于在水力壓裂技術(shù)方面的革新步伐和在什么程度上廉價(jià)能源能夠促進(jìn)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)更多的投資是很值得懷疑的。
No one disputes that the new technology has transformed America's prospects as a hydrocarbons producer.
沒有異議的是新技術(shù)把美國(guó)的前途轉(zhuǎn)換成為一個(gè)氫碳制造者。
Gas output has risen by one-third since its most recent trough in 2005, and oil production has risen by 30% since its recent low in 2008.
自從2005年最近低谷期以來(lái)天然氣的輸入已經(jīng)上升了三分之一，石油的生產(chǎn)也從2008年的低產(chǎn)量上升了30%。
This year America is expected to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of oil and gas combined.
今年美國(guó)預(yù)期超過俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯成為世界上最大的石油和天然氣聯(lián)合生產(chǎn)者。
Jobs in energy have nearly doubled in America since 2005; since the end of the recent recession they have grown at a faster rate than in any other big industry.
自從2005年以來(lái)能源領(lǐng)域的就業(yè)已經(jīng)上升了兩倍；自從最近的蕭條結(jié)束后他們比其他任何大型產(chǎn)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的速率都要快。
North Dakota, which sits on the huge Bakken oil and gas field, now boasts an unemployment rate of just 3%, the lowest among all the states.
位于巨大的貝肯石油天然氣油田的北達(dá)科他州目前自夸失業(yè)率是所有州中最低的僅僅是3%。
Some pessimists worry about the speed at which shale-bed wells run dry.
一些悲觀主義者們擔(dān)心頁(yè)巖層干涸的速度。
David Hughes, a geologist at the Post Carbon Institute, a greenish think-tank, says the combination of gas's low price and the heavy spending needed to keep it flowing casts doubt on whether the exploitable reserves of unconventional oil and gas are as big as they are fracked up to be.
David Hughes，屬于綠色智囊團(tuán)的the Post Carbon Institute的一個(gè)地質(zhì)學(xué)家，說(shuō)天然氣的低價(jià)和需要保持它流動(dòng)的沉重花銷的結(jié)合使可開發(fā)利用的非傳統(tǒng)石油和天然氣的儲(chǔ)備是否有他們通過水力壓裂技術(shù)獲取的那么多存疑。
Optimists argue that the fast decline rate has come as no surprise, and that the technology, and the industry's experience in deploying it efficiently, are improving fast enough to mitigate much of the effect of weak prices.
樂觀者們辯論到無(wú)需驚訝迅速下降的生產(chǎn)率，并且高效運(yùn)用技術(shù)和產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)也在快速提高足以抵消掉不夠占優(yōu)勢(shì)的價(jià)格的大部分影響。
Each stage of fracking is significantly evolving, says Rick Grafton, an oil and gas veteran at Grafton Asset Management, an investment firm.
水法壓裂技術(shù)的每個(gè)階段都是有意義的進(jìn)化發(fā)展，Rick Grafton，一個(gè)投資公司G2的石油和天然氣研究者，說(shuō)道。
Yet he concedes that while gas prices remain at historic lows, it will remain unattractive to invest in wells that produce only gas—as opposed to ones that produce oil or a mix of gas and natural-gas liquidssuch as butane and propane.
但是他承認(rèn)如果天然氣價(jià)格繼續(xù)保持歷史低價(jià)，那投資那些僅僅生產(chǎn)天然氣的油田會(huì)繼續(xù)保持沒有吸引力的。
As new gas has flooded onto the American market since 2008, its price has fallen by two-thirds to less than 4 per million British thermal units.
由于從2008年新天然氣涌入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)以來(lái)，它的價(jià)格已經(jīng)下跌了三分之二比每百萬(wàn)BTU4美元還要便宜。
The average price needed to cover all the costs over a well's life cycle is around 6, says Mr Grafton.
而需要用來(lái)支付所有覆蓋礦井生產(chǎn)周期成本的平均價(jià)格大約是6美元，Grafton先生說(shuō)道。
He expects it to stay below that level for three to five years, if not longer.
他期待它保持三到五年低于那個(gè)水平，如果不能長(zhǎng)久維持的話。
As a result, gas exploration in America is increasingly being determined by the prices of oil and NGLs.
結(jié)果是，美國(guó)的天然氣開發(fā)越來(lái)越被石油和天然氣液體的價(jià)格決定。
If they are high enough, energy firms will drill for these, treating the gas as a by-product.
如果它們足夠高，能源公司鉆井開發(fā)他們，而把天然氣作為副產(chǎn)品。
In North Dakota, the infrastructure to get much of this gas to market affordably is lacking, so the gas is burned, generating an intense light that can be seen at night from space.
在北達(dá)科他州，獲得大部分這種天然氣且花費(fèi)公司又能夠承擔(dān)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是缺乏的，所以這種天然氣被燒掉了，產(chǎn)生明亮的光晚上從高空都可以看到。
Roughly speaking, fracking for oil and NGLs is profitable when oil is trading on American exchanges at above 80 a barrel, as it has mostly done for the past four years.
粗略的講，當(dāng)石油在每巴侖80美元的美元匯率以上進(jìn)行交易時(shí)，如它在過去的四年大部分時(shí)候做的一樣，水力裂壓法獲取石油和天然氣液體是有利可圖的。
As long as energy firms expect this to continue, there will be lots of drilling, and thus lots of gas as well as oil and NGLs.
只要能源公司希望這種情況能夠繼續(xù)，這里會(huì)有許多的鉆井，并且因此有許多的天然氣還有石油和天然氣凝析油。
The market consensus is that the problems of Shell, BHP Billiton and some other big firms mostly reflect a combination of coming late to the party, paying top dollar for drilling sites and choosing some that turned out less productive than expected.
市場(chǎng)的一致性體現(xiàn)在殼牌石油、必和必拓公司和其他大公司的問題大部分反映了一個(gè)聯(lián)合，即晚參加這個(gè)花費(fèi)高昂來(lái)鉆井和選擇一些被發(fā)現(xiàn)比預(yù)期產(chǎn)量要少礦址的聚會(huì)。
Firms that made better, timelier choices are still doing well.
那些做了更好的，及時(shí)的選擇的公司現(xiàn)在仍然做的很好。
Until Twitter went public earlier this month, the year's hottest American IPO was of shares in Antero Resources, whose wells in the Appalachians are expected to increase their output by 76% in 2014 and 47% the year after.
直到推特這個(gè)月的早些時(shí)候公開上市，今年最熱的美國(guó)首次公開募股是Antero Resources天然氣公司股票，它在阿巴拉契亞山脈的礦井被期待到2014年將它們的產(chǎn)出提高76%和2015年提高47%。
There is a danger that something—an unexpected slide in oil prices, say—might make investors turn cold on shale firms.
這里的危險(xiǎn)是某些情況，如超出預(yù)期的石油價(jià)格下跌，可能使投資者在頁(yè)巖開發(fā)公司上轉(zhuǎn)冷。
Many of them are master limited partnerships or similar corporate structures that enjoy tax advantages but in exchange must return their entire profits to investors each year.
它們中的許多是業(yè)主有限合伙企業(yè)或者類似享有稅收優(yōu)惠但作為交換必須每年返他們所有盈利給投資者的公司結(jié)構(gòu)。
That means the firms, which require vast amounts of capital, must constantly raise it afresh, making them exceptionally vulnerable to sentiment among investors. However, no such freeze is in sight.
這意味著這些需要大量資金的公司必須持續(xù)重新提升，使他們對(duì)投資者情緒特別敏感。但是，沒有任何凍結(jié)看得見。
Renaissance men
文藝復(fù)興者
As for the effects of fracking on the broader American economy, most of the forecasts that are bullish on this question assume that gas prices will remain at historic lows.
至于水力壓裂法在拓展美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響上面，許多關(guān)于這個(gè)問題的樂觀預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)天然氣會(huì)繼續(xù)保持歷史低價(jià)。
I can't see any scenario, other than a widespread ban on drilling, that would push prices higher than 6, says Scott Nyquist, one of the authors of a report by the McKinsey Global Institute which argues that unconventional oil and gas are set to provide a strong lift to American business.
我沒有看到任何方案，而不是一個(gè)在鉆井上廣泛傳播的禁止令，這樣會(huì)使價(jià)格比6美元高，Scott Nyquist說(shuō)道，他是麥肯錫公司認(rèn)為非傳統(tǒng)石油和天然氣被設(shè)定為美國(guó)商業(yè)提供一個(gè)有力的支撐的報(bào)告的作者之一。
The report reckons that between now and 2020, shale gas and oil will add 380 billion-690 billion, or two to four percentage points, to America's annual GDP, creating 1.7m permanent jobs in the process.
該份報(bào)告認(rèn)為在現(xiàn)在和2020年之間，頁(yè)巖氣和石油會(huì)為美國(guó)每年GDP增加3800億到6900億美元或者二到四的百分點(diǎn)，在這個(gè)過程中創(chuàng)造170萬(wàn)永久的工作崗位。
America's New Energy Future, a recent report by IHS, another research outfit, talks of a manufacturing Renaissance and predicts a 533 billion boost to GDP by 2025, creating around 3.9m jobs.
美國(guó)的新能源未來(lái)，IHS,另外一個(gè)研究組織，談到制造業(yè)的文藝復(fù)興并且預(yù)測(cè)到2025年GDP有5330億的增長(zhǎng)，大概創(chuàng)造390萬(wàn)工作。
At first, say both McKinsey and IHS, a lot of the action will be in the energy business itself: not just in drilling and pipelines but in roads and ports, and all the other activities needed to produce and distribute the fuels. Electricity production is being transformed too, with gas-fired power stations being built to replace dirtier coal-fired ones.
隨著修建燃?xì)怆娬緛?lái)代替火電站，電力生產(chǎn)政治被變革.這樣幫助美國(guó)2010到2012年能源生產(chǎn)排放的溫室氣體減少了10%。
This has contributed to a 10% fall in the greenhouse-gas emissions from American power generation between 2010 and 2012. IHS reckons gas-fired stations will be providing 33% of America's electricity in 2020, compared with just 21% in 2008.
IHS答復(fù)相對(duì)于2008年燃?xì)怆娬緝H僅供給了美國(guó)21%的電力，到2020年燃?xì)怆娬緯?huì)提供美國(guó)電力的33%。
In the next few years the benefits of fracking will become more visible in other industries, especially those, such as chemicals firms, that consume a lot of energy or use raw materials derived from hydrocarbons.
在接下來(lái)的幾年，水力壓裂法的利益將會(huì)在其他產(chǎn)業(yè)中更加可視化，特別是那些，例如化學(xué)公司，消費(fèi)許多能源或者使用源于氫碳化合物原材料的產(chǎn)業(yè)。
European industry pays around three times as much for its gas as its American counterpart, and Japanese firms pay more than four times as much.
相比它的美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，歐洲產(chǎn)業(yè)要花費(fèi)三倍的成本來(lái)獲得頁(yè)巖氣，日本公司要花費(fèi)多于四倍的成本。
A report this week by the International Energy Agency, a think-tank backed by energy-consuming rich countries, predicts that by 2015 America's energy-intensive firms will have a cost advantage of 5-25% over rivals in other developed countries.
本周國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)的一份報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)到2015年美國(guó)能源密集型公司會(huì)有比其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的成本低5-25%的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
Since 2011, 128 new energy-hungry industrial plants have been announced in the Gulf Coast region alone, with a combined value of 114 billion.
自從2011年，128個(gè)新的能源密集型工業(yè)工廠在墨西哥沿岸地區(qū)設(shè)立，整體價(jià)值1140億美元。
Many are in petrochemicals. Methanex recently started advertising jobs in a methanol plant it has dismantled and shipped from Chile to Louisiana.
許多是石油化學(xué)產(chǎn)品。梅塞尼斯最近開始廣告招聘在一個(gè)它所有的分拆出來(lái)的并且從智利轉(zhuǎn)移到路易斯安那的甲醇公司的工作。
A second plant will start up in 2016.
第二家工廠會(huì)在2016年設(shè)立。
In October Yara, a Norwegian fertiliser manufacturer, said it will join forces with BASF of Germany to build a world scale ammonia plant on the Gulf Coast.
十月，亞拉，一個(gè)挪威化肥制造商，說(shuō)它會(huì)加入德國(guó)的BASF在墨西哥沿岸地區(qū)建立一個(gè)世界范圍內(nèi)的氨工廠。
The aluminium, iron and steel industries are also taking advantage of cheap gas supplies.
鋁、鐵和鋼工業(yè)也在利用廉價(jià)天然氣供應(yīng)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
Recently 19 new or expanded plants have been announced by firms including US Steel, Alcoa and ArcelorMittal.
最近包括美國(guó)鋼鐵，Alcoa 和Arcelor Mittal在內(nèi)的公司宣布將會(huì)有19家新的或者擴(kuò)張的工廠。
Nucor is rebuilding on a site in Louisiana, whose original plant was dismantled and shipped to Trinidad nearly a decade ago, when gas prices were rising in America.
Nutor在路易斯安那州重新建立廠址，近十年前它的原廠被分拆和轉(zhuǎn)移到特立尼達(dá)島，當(dāng)美國(guó)的天然氣價(jià)格上漲。
Makers of such things as cement and tyres are heavy consumers of energy, too, and thus stand to benefit from cheap gas.
這些產(chǎn)品的制造者是粘合劑，能源的巨大需求是輪胎，因此堅(jiān)持從廉價(jià)天然氣中受益。
Fracking the midnight oil
水力壓裂獲取午夜石油
Compressed or liquefied gas can also be used to power motor vehicles. American firms with big commercial fleets, such as FedEx and AT&T, are looking to cut costs by switching to gas power.
壓縮的或者液化的天然氣也能夠被用來(lái)給機(jī)動(dòng)車提供動(dòng)力。美國(guó)擁有巨大商業(yè)車隊(duì)的公司，例如聯(lián)邦快遞和美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司，在尋求轉(zhuǎn)為天然氣動(dòng)力的方式來(lái)削減成本。
GM, Ford and Chrysler have launched pickup trucks that can switch between petrol and gas.
GM，福特和克萊斯勒汽車公司也發(fā)布了能夠在汽油和天然氣之間進(jìn)行切換的小卡車拖拉機(jī)。
The growing supply of cheap shale gas has led to a wave of investment in converting terminals that were built to handle imports of gas into ones that can export it.
廉價(jià)頁(yè)巖氣的持續(xù)供應(yīng)導(dǎo)致了轉(zhuǎn)換終端設(shè)備的投資浪潮，該設(shè)備被設(shè)計(jì)來(lái)處理通過該設(shè)備天然氣輸入輸出的問題。
Some, such as Andrew Liveris, the boss of Dow, a chemicals giant, worry that if too much of America's gas is exported, prices will rise, robbing it of its competitive advantage.
有些，如Andrew Liveris，一家名為Dow化學(xué)大公司的老板，擔(dān)心如果太多的美國(guó)天然氣被出口，那么價(jià)格會(huì)上升，搶走了它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。
However, the new export facilities will come on stream slowly, especially if the government keeps dragging its feet over granting export licences.
但是新的輸出設(shè)備在緩慢投入生產(chǎn)，特別是如果政府堅(jiān)持通過授予出口許可來(lái)拖它的后腿。
And even if all the currently planned facilities are opened, which would make America the world's largest gas exporter, gas prices in America would still be some way below the world price—probably no more than 6 per BTU, says McKinsey.
甚至如果所有目前計(jì)劃的設(shè)備開動(dòng)了，這會(huì)使美國(guó)成為世界上最大的天然氣輸出國(guó)，美國(guó)的天然氣價(jià)格也會(huì)以某種方式低于世界價(jià)格水平—可能不會(huì)多于每BTU6美元，麥肯錫公司說(shuō)道。
So America should be able to enjoy a boost to its trade balance while still preserving its manufacturers' advantage over foreign rivals.
所以美國(guó)應(yīng)該仍然能夠在對(duì)它的外國(guó)對(duì)手保持它的制造業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)的情況下享受到它的貿(mào)易平衡的增長(zhǎng)。
Look on the bright side
光明的一面
The argument over the impact on the job market is essentially over whether the glass is half-full or half-empty.
就業(yè)市場(chǎng)沖擊的爭(zhēng)論關(guān)于玻璃杯究竟是半空還是半滿是有必要的。
The most that Goldman concedes in its sceptical report is that the long-term decline in jobs in energy-intensive industries has merely bottomed out.
大部分高盛在它有疑慮的報(bào)告中承認(rèn)的是能源密集產(chǎn)業(yè)長(zhǎng)期工作大蕭條已經(jīng)完全降到最低點(diǎn)。
But even this would be worth celebrating.
但是甚至這樣也是值得慶祝的。
IHS is not the only forecaster to be much more cheerful.
IHS不是唯一的比較樂觀的預(yù)測(cè)者。
It predicts that unconventional energy, as well as providing jobs in its own right, will be supporting 400,000 jobs in manufacturing in 2015 and 500,000 jobs, or 4.2% of total manufacturing employment, in 2025.
它預(yù)計(jì)非傳統(tǒng)能源，也在它自己的權(quán)利范圍內(nèi)提供工作，到2015年會(huì)在制造行業(yè)提供400，000工作和到2025年500,000工作或者制造業(yè)雇傭的4.2%。
The spending-power of those new workers, and the cut in businesses' and households' energy bills, should provide a broad boost to the economy.
這些新雇員的消費(fèi)能力和在商業(yè)和家庭能源賬單上的削減應(yīng)該會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)提供一個(gè)廣泛的增長(zhǎng)。
Goldman again puts a cautious spin on the numbers: shale energy's overall effects will add just a few tenths of a percentage point to the annual growth rate, says Jan Hatzius, its chief economist.
高盛再次在數(shù)據(jù)方面提供了一個(gè)謹(jǐn)慎的說(shuō)法：頁(yè)巖能源的全面影響會(huì)僅僅對(duì)年增長(zhǎng)率增加幾十個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，Jan Hatzius，它的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說(shuō)道。
But although this sounds modest, if sustained for a decade or more, it would add up to something big. Not quite a revolution, perhaps, but a significant turnaround in America's prospects.
但是盡管這個(gè)聽起來(lái)很謙虛，如果持續(xù)十年或者更久，它會(huì)累積很大一筆。不算是一個(gè)革命，可能，但是是美國(guó)前景上的有重要意義的轉(zhuǎn)彎。
