評論
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Finance and economics
財經商業
Japan's consumption tax
日本消費稅
Taxonomics
稅收穩定經濟
A crucial rise in a controversial levy may be in doubt
爭議稅種，關鍵增稅，何去何從，尚存疑問
THE Japanese are among the world's most reluctant taxpayers.
日本人是這個世界上最頑固的納稅人，
They reserve their deepest loathing for value-added tax.
他們對增值稅懷有深深的怨念。
That may be because one of the inventors of VAT, Carl Shoup, an American economist, used them as guinea pigs for his new levy during the occupation after the second world war.
之所以如此是因為增值稅的發明者，美國經濟學家卡爾·蘇泊在二戰后美國占領日本期間拿日本做了這項新稅法的試驗品。
Japan soon scrapped VAT, reintroducing a consumption tax only in 1989.
日本人很快就廢除了增值稅，之后僅在1989年重新引入消費稅。
This quickly became as hated as its foreign-imposed forerunner.
而消費稅也很快成為日本人痛恨的外國人強加的稅種。
The gaijin are watching again as Japan struggles to raise the consumption tax for only the second time since its introduction.
自引入消費稅后，日本僅增加過兩次，而這第二次增稅就引來外國人的又一次關注。
The IMF, the OECD and local institutions all reckon a series of rises is the only way for Japan to control its gross public debt, approaching 250% of GDP.
國際貨幣基金組織、經濟合作與發展組織以及日本國內機構都認為一系列的增稅是日本控制國內債務的唯一方式了，日本國債已經達到GDP的250%。
The Democratic Party of Japan, which won legislative backing for the hike last year, argued that without it Japan could soon go the way of Greece.
去年贏得增稅立法支持的日本民主黨認為，消費稅不提高，日本將很快陷入希臘那種境地。
Financial markets have counted on the tax rise going ahead despite a change of government since then.
自民主黨增稅立法之后，除了政府的一系列變革，整個日本金融市場都指著消費稅上漲了。
This week the authorities surprised them by saying they would set up a panel to examine whether to proceed as planned.
不過本周令人驚訝的是，日本政府表示他們將設立小組來檢查是否要按計劃推進這一進程。
The plan is to lift the levy from 5% to 8% next April and to 10% in 2015.
按計劃，到明年4月，消費稅稅率從目前的5%提高到8%；到2015年要達到10%。
That would bite just as Abenomics, a popular three-part plan to reflate the economy, designed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is taking off.
這樣將勢必產生震蕩。類似的效果可能如安倍經濟學。安倍經濟學是由安倍晉三首相設計，內含三項方案，旨在振興日本經濟。
The first two stages, a radical monetary loosening by the Bank of Japan and a generous fiscal stimulus, were aimed at jolting consumers out of their deflationary mindset and inspiring firms to invest.
安倍經濟學前兩項—由日本銀行推行的激進的貨幣寬松政策和大手筆的財政刺激計劃都旨在將消費者從通貨緊縮中解脫出來并鼓勵企業投資。
But so far it is mainly the urban wealthy and big firms that are benefiting.
但直到目前為止，主要還是城市富人階層和大企業從中受益。
A consumption-tax increase, on the other hand, would immediately lighten all pockets.
另一方面，消費稅的增長，則將立即清空民眾的消費余力。
The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed by years of lost growth if consumers take fright.
有人擔心，如果消費者因此恐慌的話，那么稅收的增長帶來的影響可能會比失去十年還要嚴重得多。
The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, was blamed for consigning Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other events such as the Asian financial crisis.
日本另外一次上調消費稅，即1997年上調到2%，雖然當時恰逢亞洲金融危機，但這還是被指責將日本帶入第二個失去的十年之中。
Without counting broader knock-on effects, says Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.
摩根斯坦利的羅伯特·費爾德曼表示，如果不算上廣泛的連鎖效應，那么原計劃2014年GDP增長3%的目標就要縮水到1%以上。
An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually.
另一個可選方案就是放緩增稅的腳步。
Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised in increments of 1% over five years.
耶魯大學經濟學家，同時也是安倍經濟學的設計者之一濱田弘一表示可以在未來五年內，消費稅率提高1%。
Mr Abe's panel will study this option, among others.
安倍可以考慮這個選項。
As long as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at Nomura Securities, the bond market would probably stay calm.
野村證券的松澤中表示，只要長遠角度講消費稅得以提升，那么債券市場就會穩定下來。
Ditching the tax increase entirely remains unthinkable.
但要實現徹底拋棄增稅是不可想象的。
Recent economic indicators, such as strong real annualised GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter, as well as a slightly improved jobs market, leave Mr Abe with little excuse but to go ahead.
最近的經濟數據，比如第一季度GDP4.1%的強勁增幅以及就業市場的略微改善，都讓安倍無法拿稅收說事，但他又得將這一稅改推行下去。
The BoJ this week added its voice to those pushing for a rise.
本周日本銀行對增稅呼聲予以支持。
And taxpayers may be more accepting than the politicians think.
而納稅人或許也比政客們想象中更能接受增稅。
An unscientific straw poll by The Economist found that seven out of ten shoppers in Ginza, a high-end shopping district, were ready for a tax increase, as narrowly preferable to a debt crisis.
本刊做了一項非科學民調，結果發現，在高檔購物區東京銀座有七成的購物者已經準備好迎接增稅了，這一數據比起債務危機來說要稍高。
