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Finance and economics
財經商業
India in trouble
印度身陷困境
The reckoning
最后審判日
Why India is particularly vulnerable to the turbulence rattling emerging markets
為什么印度新興市場特別容易受到震蕩
ON THE morning of August 17th most of India's economic policymakers gathered in the prime minister's house in Delhi.
8月17日上午，大多數印度經濟政策制定者聚集在德里的總理府邸。
They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included the balance-of-payments crisis of 1991.
他們聚集那里為了發布一項官方的1981年到1997年間的經濟史，這個時期包括1991年的國際收支危機。
The mood was tense.
氛圍十分緊張。
India, said Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.
總理曼莫漢·辛格說，印度面臨十分困難的狀況。
Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bank of India.
歷史重演了嗎？即將退休的印度央行行長蘇巴拉奧問道，
As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?
好像我們沒有從一次經濟危機到另一次經濟危機中什么都沒有學到？
The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.
之前，印度金融市場最困難的時期持續了很多年了。
The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.
盧比貶值，股市坍塌。
Money-market rates rose.
貨幣市場匯率上升。
The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fell sharply.
人們認為滿是壞賬或者缺少存款資金的銀行股份迅速貶值。
The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th in response to incipient signs of capital flight.
為應對早期資金外流現象，8月14日實施的資本控制使得證券拋售變得更糟糕。
They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.
他們減少了印度居民和公司可以帶出國家的資金量。
Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much as Malaysia did during its crisis in 1998.
外國投資者受到了驚嚇，擔心印度也會凍結他們的資金，就像馬來西亞1998年經濟危機的時候采取的措施一樣。
India's authorities have since ruled that out.
印度當局后來排除了那種可能。
But markets keep sliding.
但是市場持續下滑。
On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.
8月20日，印度央行稱會試著穩定債券收益率。
The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level three months ago.
盧比已貶值至一美元64盧比，價值空前的低，比三個月前水平低13%。
It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.
人們普遍認為，這個國家處在自從1991年以來最糟糕的經濟窘境中。
India is not being singled out.
印度不是被單挑出來的。
Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its asset purchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.
從五月份以來，當美聯儲首次表明會放慢其資產收購的進程時，投資者已經開始適應沒有超低息政策的世界。
There has been a great withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, where most currencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.
大量資金從新興市場撤出，這些市場過去的三個月盧比對美元匯率下降了5-15%。
Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.
債券收益從巴西上升到了泰國水平。
Some governments have intervened.
一些政府介入了。
On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster its currency.
7月11日，印度尼西亞提升了其基準利率來加強貨幣。
On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensure stability.
8月21日，印尼總統表明不久就會宣布進一步的措施來確保經濟穩定。
India, Asia's third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.
印度，亞洲第三大經濟，卻比大多數國家更脆弱。
Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rate seen during the 2003-08 boom.
經濟新聞讓人們失望了兩年了，經濟增長率降到4-5%，其中一半的經濟增長率還是在2003-08年經濟蓬勃時期發展起來的。
It may fall further.
經濟增長率還會進一步下跌。
Consumer-price inflation remains stubborn at 10%.
消費物價上漲仍保持在10%。
A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package of reforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.
由財務部長帕拉尼亞潘·奇丹巴南為從繁文縟節中通過一系列改革和免費的大型工業項目而發起的運動還沒有效果。
An election is due by May 2014, adding to uncertainty.
選舉在2014年5月，也增加了不確定性。
India's dependence on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.
印度對外資的依賴程度也很高并且上升很迅速。
The current-account deficit soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2012, although it is expected to be 4-5% this year.
往來賬戶逆差2012年底急升至將近GDP的7%，雖然今年預期逆差是4-5%。
External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDP—the ratio stands at 21% today—but debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier.
外債相對于GDP沒有上升很多—現在比例在21%—但是債務更多是短期的，因此更危險。
Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.
財政需求總額下一年是2.5億美元。
India's reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.
印度的儲備是2.79億，是償還能力系數的1.1倍。
That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weaker than many of its peers.
2007-08這個儲備下降了3倍多，也使印度看起來比許多同樣的國家看起來更弱。
It is therefore vital that foreign equity investors stay put.
因此，外資股權投資者留在原處很重要。
They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.
按現時價格計算，他們可能擁有2億美元的股份。
They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would have no defence.
自從五月份以來，他們只賣了大約3百萬股份，但是如果他們撤出，印度將失去所有的防御。
This is not a repeat of 1991.
這不是1991年的一種重復。
When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvana was hitting the big time.
當印度最后一次經濟危機的時候，鮑里斯·葉利欽在莫斯科正要上臺，涅槃樂隊正出名。
Things have changed in financial terms, too.
融資條件也發生了變化。
Back then India had a fixed exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself trying to defend—it had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.
當時，印度有固定匯率，這是即將破產的國家努力維護的，為了還貸款，它必須空運黃金給英格蘭銀行。
Today India has a floating exchange rate and a government with almost no foreign-currency debt.
今天，印度有浮動匯率，還有一個幾乎沒有外幣債務的政府。
A slump in the currency poses no immediate threat to the government's solvency.
貨幣的貶值對政府的償付能力沒有直接的威脅。
The pain will be felt in other ways.
痛苦會以其他方式感受到。
Private firms that owe most of India's foreign debt will be under intense strain, particularly if the rupee drops further.
欠了絕大多數印度外國債務的私人公司將會非常緊張，尤其是如果盧比進一步下跌。
Some will go bust.
有些公司會破產。
Market interest rates will stay high, causing a liquidity squeeze.
市場利率會居高不下，導致流動性短缺。
All this makes life even tougher for India's state-owned banks, which already have sour loans equivalent to 10-12% of their loan books.
這些情況使得印度國有銀行的日子更難過，這已經惡化了等同于貸款賬項的10-12%。
Inflation will rise.
通貨膨脹會加劇。
And the government's finances will be under strain as the cost of its subsidies on imported fuel gets bigger.
政府財政會隨著進口燃料補貼上升而承受巨大壓力。
There is probably little the authorities can do to shore up the currency in the short term.
短期內，政府當局可能沒有什么可以做支撐貨幣。
The rupee is one of the world's most actively traded currencies and at least half the turnover is abroad.
盧比是世界上最活躍的交易貨幣之一，至少有一半的營業額在國外。
Privately, officials reckon the rupee's fair value, taking into account India's higher inflation and productivity over the past few years, is a little less than 60 per dollar, so the market has yet to overshoot wildly.
私底下，考慮到近幾年印度更嚴重的通貨膨脹和生產率，官員認為盧比的公允價值低于1美元60盧比，所以市場還沒有嚴重超過。
Raghuram Rajan, the incoming governor of the RBI, is likely to take a hands-off approach.
即將上任的印度央行管理人拉古拉姆·拉詹可能會采取不干涉的措施。
That doesn't mean the government will—or should.
這不意味著政府會或者必須這么做。
On August 19th it banned the import through airports of duty-free flat-screen TVs, which Indians can often be seen heaving through check-in at Dubai.
8月19日，印度禁止空運進口免稅平板電視，經常可以看到印度人在迪拜辦理登記手續處拖著這些東西。
It may seek to raise duties further on gold imports, which Indians are addicted to in part because it is seen as a hedge against inflation.
印度人在某種程度上沉迷于此因為這被看做是來抵消通過膨脹造成損失。
Gross gold imports were 3% of GDP last year, blowing a huge hole in the external finances.
去年黃金進口總值是GDP的3%，給外部融資帶來了巨大的損失。
History suggests the higher taxes on gold imports are, the worse smuggling gets.
歷史表明進口黃金稅收越高，走私越嚴重。
But India imports 800-odd tonnes of bullion a year. That's a lot of gold to hide in suitcases.
但是印度每年進口大約800公噸金條，那會有很多金子要藏在箱子里。
The government will also try to persuade the Supreme Court to lift its ban on iron-ore exports, imposed after a series of corruption scams.
在一系列腐敗騙局發生后，政府也會試著說服最高法院解除鐵礦出口的禁令。
At its peak this industry generated exports worth about 0.4% of GDP, although experts doubt that mothballed mines can be ramped up fast.
在其全盛時期，這項工業出口價值約0.4%的GDP，雖然專家們懷疑封存礦山是否會增加很快。
The government may also cut fuel subsidies.
政府可能還會減少燃料補貼。
That would reduce demand for imported fuel and help it hit a fiscal-deficit target of about 7% of GDP.
這會減少對進口燃料的需求，并幫助達成GDP7%的財政赤字目標。
The longer-term solution to the balance-of-payments problem may be to ramp up India's manufacturing sector, and thus its industrial exports.
國際收支差額問題的長期解決措施可能是增加印度制造業以及其工業出口。
But that will take a big improvement in the business climate, not just a cheap currency.
但是那樣會大幅改善商業環境，不僅僅是廉價的貨幣。
Despite the rupee's 27% tumble in the past three years there is scant sign of global manufacturers shifting production to India.
雖然盧比價值在過去三年下跌了27%，有跡象表明全球制造商正將生產向印度轉移。
India's position could still get worse.
印度的處境可能仍然在惡化。
But assuming things stabilise, when the official histories come to be written about 2013, what might they say?
但是如果形勢穩定下來了，當要記載2013年的官方歷史時，他們會說什么呢？
Most likely that the rupee's slump caused a severe shock to the economy that made a recovery in growth rates even harder.
最有可能的是盧比下跌對經濟產生嚴重沖擊，使得經濟增長率恢復更加困難。
But perhaps, also, that it prompted a more serious debate about the policies that India needs to become less vulnerable to the whims of an unforgiving world.
但是也有可能會激起更嚴肅的討論，關于印度要變得更能應對變化多端難以應付世界。
