評論
打印
Science and technology
科學技術
Sex and love
性與愛
The modern matchmakers
現代紅娘
Internet dating sites claim to have brought science to the age-old question of how to pair off successfully. But have they?
互聯網相親網站聲稱已經將科技運用如何成功配對的問題之上。但事實是不是這樣呢？
FOR as long as humans have romanced each other, others have wanted to meddle.
只要人類存在婚戀行為，外人就想加以干涉。
Whether those others were parents, priests, friends or bureaucrats, their motive was largely the same:
不論這些外人是父母、牧師、朋友或者官員，他們的動機在很大程度上一致：
they thought they knew what it took to pair people off better than those people knew themselves.
他們自認為比婚戀們自身更了解怎樣去更好地配對成功。
Today, though, there is a new matchmaker in the village: the internet.
然而如今在鄉村里出現了一種新型的紅娘：互聯網。
It differs from the old ones in two ways.
它同傳統紅娘在兩方面有所區別。
First, its motive is purely profit.
首先，其完全有利益驅使。
Second, single wannabe lovers are queuing up to use it, rather than resenting its nagging.
其次渴求另一半的單身排隊使用它，而不用忍受紅娘的絮絮叨叨。
For internet dating sites promise two things that neither traditional matchmakers nor chance encounters at bars, bus-stops and bar mitzvahs offer.
其原因在于互聯網相親網站承諾了兩個傳統紅娘和在酒吧、車站、成年禮上的偶遇都不能提供的優勢。
One is a vastly greater choice of potential partners.
一是：未來伴侶的大量選擇機會；
The other is a scientifically proven way of matching suitable people together, enhancing the chance of happily ever after.
二是：用科學有效的方式將合適的人配對，以增加婚后幸福的幾率。
The greater choice is unarguable.
擁有大量選擇機會的優勢是無可爭議的。
But does it lead to better outcomes?
但它真能帶來更好地婚配結果嗎？
And do the scientifically tested algorithms actually work, and deliver the goods in ways that traditional courtship cannot manage?
所謂的經過科學測試的婚配策略是否真正其作用，能否以傳統求愛無法勝任的方式完成婚配？
These are the questions asked by a team of psychologists led by Eli Finkel of Northwestern University, in Illinois, in a paper released
這些問題正是伊利諾斯州德西北大學的Eli Finkel所領導的心理學家小組在情人節前幾天所發布的論文中提到的，
probably not coincidentally—a few days before St Valentine's day.
也許這并非偶然。
This paper, published in Psychological Science in the Public Interest,
這篇發布在公家好處報紙心理學欄目，
reviews studies carried out by many groups of psychologists since the earliest internet dating site, Match.com, opened for business in 1995.
它回顧了在1995年最早的互聯網相親網站開門營業后眾多心理學團體的研究。
In it, Dr Finkel and his colleagues cast a sceptical eye over the whole multi-billion-dollar online dating industry, and they are deeply unconvinced.
在這篇論文中，Finkel博士和他的同事對這個年盈利數十億美元的網上相親產業表示高度懷疑。
Blueprint for a perfect partner?
另一半的完美模板
The researchers' first observation is not so much what the studies they examined have shown,
研究者們首先注意的不是這些研究能展示的結果，
but what they have been unable to show, namely how any of the much-vaunted partner-matching algorithms actually work.
二是他們還不能展示的東西，即那些自夸的婚配策略是如何起作用的。
Commercially, that is fair enough.
在商業上來看，這似乎無可厚非。
Many firms preserve their intellectual property as trade secrets, rather than making it public by patenting it,
許多公司將其知識產權作為商業機密保護起來，
and there is no reason why internet dating sites should not be among them.
而非通過申請專利使其公開化。
But this makes claims of efficacy impossible to test objectively.
而互聯網相親網站沒有理由效仿這些公司。
There is thus no independent scientific evidence that any internet dating site's algorithm for matching people together。
互聯網相親網站的行為使其聲稱的婚配效果完全無法得到客觀公正的檢驗。
actually does enhance the chance of their hitting it off when they meet.
因此也就沒有公正的科學證據證明任何互聯網相親網站確實能使其婚配的戀人能和睦相處。
What papers have been published on the matter have been written by company insiders who do not reveal how the crucial computer programs do their stuff.
關于這方面的已發表的論文都是有公司內部人員撰寫，然而他們卻沒有解釋核心電腦程序是如何運作的。
It is, though, possible to test the value of a claim often made for these algorithms: that they match people with compatible personality traits.
然而，去檢測針對這些婚配策略所作出的承諾的價值是可能的。
No doubt they do, given the number of questions on such matters on the average application form.
看看申請表上關于性格方面問題的數量就知道他們確實采用此種策略。
What is assumed, but not tested, however, is that this is a good thing—that those with compatible personalities make more successful couples than those without.
然而大家認為這是一種好的策略-性格相合相對性格不合的戀人更容易擁有幸福美滿的婚姻，但是這一點未經證實。
To examine this proposition, Dr Finkel draws on a study published in 2010 by Portia Dyrenforth of Hobart and William Smith Colleges, in Geneva, New York.
為了驗證這一觀點，Finkel博士引用了紐約日內瓦霍巴特與威廉·史密斯學院的Portia Dyrenforth在2010年發表的研究。
Dr Dyrenforth asked more than 20,000 people about their relationships, and also assessed their personalities.
博士Dyrenforth詢問了20000多對夫妻的關系，同時也評估了他們的性格。
Members of couples with similar personalities were indeed happier than those whose partners were dissimilar.
擁有相同性格的夫妻確實比性格不同的夫妻幸福些。
But the difference was not exactly huge.
但是差別不是很大，
It was 0.5%.
僅僅5%。
As Dr Finkel puts it,
正如Finkel博士所說的：
I wouldn't have a problem with companies claiming that their matching algorithm could increase the chances of developing a lasting relationship by a tiny amount;
對于那些聲稱其婚配策略可以小幅地提升維持長久關系的可能性的公司，我不會給予否定。
I get concerned, though, when companies claim they can find your soul mate for you.
然而，當其聲稱他們可以幫你找到靈魂伴侶時，我卻不贊同。
Surely, however, the chances of finding that magic other are increased by the second thing internet dating brings: oodles of choice?
然而可以肯定的是互聯網相親網站提供的第二種優勢能提升找到合適的另一半的可能性。
But here, too, things are not as simple as they might seem.
然而，事情也并非看起來簡單。
Some dating-site algorithms do not take the high-handed we know best approach but, rather,
一些相親網站得婚配策略不是采取那種客觀婚配的策略而是讓單身者自身決定他或她尋找什么類型的人，
let the punter decide what he or she is looking for and then offer as many matches to those criteria as are on the website's books.
然后如同網上售書根據這些標準提供婚配對象。
The crucial assumption here, of course, is that what people think they want is what they actually need.
當然，這里有一個重要的假設：人們自認為想要的類型是他們實際真正需要的。
That, it is true, is an assumption behind all consumer decisions.
事實上，這個假設是所有消費者都未曾考慮的。
But changing your mind about a book or a washing machine chosen over the internet is not as emotionally fraught as changing your mind about a potential sexual partner.
但是改變的對你網購的一本書或者一臺洗衣機的看法并不像改變對一個潛在的性伴侶那樣令人擔憂。
And here, too, the data suggest people are not good at knowing what they want.
這些數據也暗示人們并非了解他們真正的需要。
One of Dr Finkel's own studies,
例如，Finkel博士自己的一個研究顯示：
for example, showed that when they are engaged in internet dating's cousin, speed dating,
人們進行同網絡交友的類似活動如快速約會，
people's stated preferences at the beginning of the process do not well match the characters of the individuals they actually like.
人們在一開始申明的標準和他們真正喜歡的人的性格相符。
Indeed, even the very volume of alternatives may be a problem. Studies on consumer choice, from boxes of chocolates to restaurant wine lists, have shown that less is more.
事實上，婚配候選人的數量就可能是一個問題。從巧克力盒子道餐館酒水一覽目錄，關于消費者選擇的研究發現并非越多越好。
Half a dozen bonbons, or a dozen bottles, are easier to pick between than 30 or 40. And an internet dating site may come up with not just a few dozen,
相較于30或者40打，半打夾心糖或者一打瓶子更容易選擇。相親網站帶來的不僅僅是幾十個婚配候選人，
but thousands of allegedly suitable matches.
而是成百上千的宣稱合適的婚配者。
The supermarket of love
愛情超市
Not surprisingly, the difficulty of choosing from abundance seems to apply to choice of people, too.
果然，這種從大量選擇的困難看起來也同樣適用于人的選擇。
Dr Finkel could find no study which addressed the question directly, in the context of internet dating.
在互聯網相親的背景下，Finkel博士沒能發現直接解決這一問題的研究。
But speed-dating once again provided an answer.
但是快速約會曾提供了一種答案。
Here, he found studies which showed that when faced with abundant choice,
這里，他發現一些研究顯示到：當面臨大量的選擇時，
people pay less attention to characteristics that require thinking and conversation to evaluate and more to matters physical.
人們很少關注需要思考和談話才能評估諸如職業階層和教育水平，而更加關注身體外形方面。
Choice, in other words, dulls the critical faculties.
換句話說，選擇埋沒了重要的才能。
The upshot of Dr Finkel's review is thus that love is as hard to find on the internet as elsewhere.
Finkel博士的觀點的要點是如同在其他地方一樣，網上的愛情也很難需求。
That is not a reason not to use it.
沒有理由不相信這句話。
But you may be just as likely to luck out in the local cafe, or by acting on the impulse to stop and talk to that stranger on the street whose glance you caught, as you are by clicking away with a mouse and hoping that,
如同在當地咖啡店希望走桃花運或者興致沖沖地停下來同街道上的瞄著你的陌生人談話，你還是點擊鼠標，
one day, Cupid's arrow will strike.
希望有一天丘比特之箭能射中你。
