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Science and Technology,Eradicating polio,Late? Or never?
科技,根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎,為時(shí)已晚？或絕無(wú)可能？
A plan to wipe out polio by the end of next year is in trouble
明年底消滅脊髓灰質(zhì)炎的計(jì)劃倍受挑戰(zhàn)
HUBRIS is always dangerous. In 1977 smallpox was eradicated and—an accidental infection in a British laboratory a year later aside—that claim has stood the test of time.
驕傲自滿(mǎn)通常是危險(xiǎn)的行為。1977年，人類(lèi)宣稱(chēng)消滅了天花（若將一年后英國(guó)實(shí)驗(yàn)室發(fā)生的一次偶然天花感染排除在外的話(huà)），這份聲明經(jīng)歷了時(shí)間的考驗(yàn)。
Having eliminated one viral disease, the authorities decided they ought to be able to get rid of another: polio.
在消滅了一種病毒疾病后，權(quán)威專(zhuān)家們認(rèn)為他們有能力再消滅另一種病毒：脊髓灰質(zhì)炎病毒。
That, though, proved a tougher opponent.
但實(shí)踐證明，脊髓灰質(zhì)炎是個(gè)難以應(yīng)付的對(duì)手。
The World Health Organisation's original target, set in 1988—a polio-free world by 2000—proved illusory.
世界衛(wèi)生組織于1988年定下的原始目標(biāo)——到2000年實(shí)現(xiàn)全世界無(wú)脊髓灰質(zhì)炎——被證明是天方夜譚。
The latest deadline set by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), the multinational body charged with dealing with the disease, is next year.
全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)小組(GPEI)是負(fù)責(zé)消滅該疾病的跨國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu),它將消滅脊髓灰質(zhì)炎的最后期限定為明年。
On July 20th, though, Sir Liam Donaldson, once England's chief medical officer and now the chairman of an independent watchdog committee that scrutinises the GPEI's activities, published a report which says this deadline, too, is at risk.
但7月20日，利亞姆·唐納森發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告指出這個(gè)最后期限也正面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。利亞姆·唐納森是英國(guó)前首席醫(yī)療官，現(xiàn)任負(fù)責(zé)審查"全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)"活動(dòng)的獨(dú)立監(jiān)督委員會(huì)主席。
In truth, the GPEI has not done badly.
事實(shí)上，全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)一直成績(jī)卓著。
The number of cases of polio is a mere 1% of what it was in 1988.
目前，脊髓灰質(zhì)炎的病例數(shù)量?jī)H為1988年的1%。
But that number has hardly budged for several years.
而且在數(shù)年間，該數(shù)字幾乎都未發(fā)生變化。
Squeezing the last few cases out of existence has proved far harder than expected.
要想根除最后的少量殘存病例證明比預(yù)期更難。
Polio poses a particular challenge to countries with unstable politics and weak health systems.
在政治動(dòng)蕩和衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)薄弱的國(guó)家，消除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎將面臨很?chē)?yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。
To contain outbreaks, surveillance must be vigilant: the virus usually lurks silently, paralysing just one carrier in 200.
為控制疾病爆發(fā)，必須在疫情監(jiān)測(cè)上提高警惕：此種病毒通常悄無(wú)聲息地潛伏于人體內(nèi)，每200名病毒攜帶者中僅有1名會(huì)遭受此病毒侵襲。
Moreover, the vaccine is delicate and must be kept cool.
此外，由于病毒疫苗的敏感特性使其必須在低溫下保存。
And immunisation requires repeated vaccinations.
并且要想實(shí)現(xiàn)免疫還需要反復(fù)接種。
Today polio is endemic in only four countries: Afghanistan, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. It has, however, re-emerged in several others (see chart).
目前脊髓灰質(zhì)炎僅在四個(gè)國(guó)家流行：阿富汗、印度、尼日利亞和巴基斯坦。但此病在其它幾個(gè)國(guó)家也曾死灰復(fù)燃（見(jiàn)圖表）。
Each endemic country has its own particular problems.
每個(gè)疾病流行的國(guó)家都有自己特殊的問(wèn)題。
In Afghanistan the GPEI has failed to stop transmission in 13 war-ridden southern districts.
在戰(zhàn)火紛飛的13個(gè)阿富汗南部地區(qū)，全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)沒(méi)能夠阻止疫情的傳播。
Most of India is free of the disease, but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to struggle.
印度大部分地區(qū)都未出現(xiàn)該病疫情，但北方邦州和比哈爾邦州仍在與該疾病抗?fàn)帯?/div>
In 2003 and 2004 Nigeria was gripped by rumours that polio vaccine would sterilise children and infect them with HIV.
2003年和2004年，尼日利亞坊間盛傳脊髓灰質(zhì)炎疫苗會(huì)使兒童絕育并讓他們感染艾滋病毒。
And although in Pakistan the incidence of polio dropped tenfold between 1995 and 2000, conflict, poor sanitation and a mobile population helped the number of cases jump by 62% last year.
盡管巴基斯坦的脊髓灰質(zhì)炎發(fā)病率在1995年到2000年間降低了10倍，但戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)沖突、惡劣的衛(wèi)生條件和人口的流動(dòng)使病例數(shù)量在去年激增了62% 。
In 2010 the GPEI adopted a new strategy, with the goal of stopping transmission by the end of 2012.
2010年，全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)通過(guò)了一項(xiàng)新策略，其目標(biāo)是到2012年底阻止脊髓灰質(zhì)炎的傳播。
If no cases are seen for three years after that, the disease will be certified as eradicated.
如果接下來(lái)的三年內(nèi)無(wú)病例發(fā)生，那就證明該疾病被徹底根除了。
One priority of this new strategy is to work carefully with local leaders, to win support for immunisation.
這項(xiàng)新策略的首要任務(wù)是尋求與疫情當(dāng)?shù)仡I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的緊密合作，贏得他們對(duì)免疫行動(dòng)的支持。
In Asia, where polio cases are concentrated in just a few places, the GPEI has tailored plans for each of them.
在亞洲，脊髓灰質(zhì)炎僅集中在少數(shù)幾個(gè)地區(qū)，全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)已經(jīng)為它們量身定制了幾套方案。
For example, better co-ordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan would help manage cross-border transmission.
例如，阿富汗與巴基斯坦的通力合作有助于控制疫情的跨境傳播。
In Africa, where the virus now roams across a broad swathe of countries, the GPEI would scale up activity in places such as Angola, Chad, Guinea and Mali where polio has reappeared in recent years.
在非洲，病毒目前在眾多國(guó)家肆虐。近年來(lái)，脊髓灰質(zhì)炎在安哥拉、乍得、幾內(nèi)亞與馬里等國(guó)家死灰復(fù)燃，全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)將擴(kuò)大對(duì)它們的救治規(guī)模。
The response to new outbreaks would be swifter and stronger; the administration of vaccines, broader. A new, more effective oral vaccine will help.
對(duì)新疫情爆發(fā)的反應(yīng)將更加快速而有效，并且疫苗的投放范圍將更為廣泛。一種新型更為有效的口服疫苗也將對(duì)疫情防治有所幫助。
One final push
最后一搏
Sir Liam's committee was itself a product of this new strategy, and now it is fulfilling its remit by pointing out where other components are going wrong.
利亞姆負(fù)責(zé)的委員會(huì)本身就是這項(xiàng)新策略的產(chǎn)物，他們要履行的職責(zé)是指出根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎行動(dòng)計(jì)劃中的錯(cuò)漏之處。
Though India has made gains, elections interrupted progress in Nigeria.
盡管印度在脊髓灰質(zhì)炎防治方面取得成效，但尼日利亞的大選阻斷了該病所取得的進(jìn)展。
Pakistan's emergency action plan seems to have had little effect—the country has recorded 54 cases this year, double the number in the first half of 2010.
巴基斯坦的緊急行動(dòng)計(jì)劃似乎也成效甚微——該國(guó)今年已經(jīng)發(fā)生了54宗病例，比2010年上半年增加一倍。
Countries with resurgent polio are struggling as well.
脊髓灰質(zhì)炎復(fù)發(fā)的國(guó)家也面臨同樣的困境。
Chad, for example, has been slow to implement a strong plan of action.
例如乍得遲遲未付諸實(shí)施強(qiáng)有力的行動(dòng)計(jì)劃。
The original strategy for the Democratic Republic of the Congo was to concentrate vaccination in three provinces.
剛果民主共和國(guó)原先的策略是將免疫計(jì)劃集中在三個(gè)省。
However, transmission is now more widespread, so a broader campaign might prove necessary.
然而現(xiàn)在疾病傳播反而更加廣泛了，因此可能需要在更大范圍內(nèi)與該疾病抗?fàn)帯?/div>
More than $8 billion has been spent to date, with more than $1 billion of that coming from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
迄今為止，各國(guó)已經(jīng)投入了80多億美元對(duì)抗脊髓灰質(zhì)炎，其中有十幾億美元資金來(lái)自于比爾·蓋茨和梅林達(dá)·蓋茨基金會(huì)。
Mr and Mrs Gates hope their investment will pay a big dividend.
蓋茨夫婦希望他們的投資會(huì)帶來(lái)很大成效。
A recent paper estimated that eliminating polio would bring a net benefit of between $40 billion and $50 billion over the period from 1988 to 2035.
一份最近的報(bào)告估計(jì)從1988年到2035年間消除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎將帶來(lái)400億到500億美元的凈收益。
But that assumed eradication by 2012.
但其前提是到2012年要將脊髓灰質(zhì)炎徹底根除。
Donald Henderson, the doctor who led the campaign to rid the world of smallpox, predicts that even if polio is deemed eradicated, vaccination will have to continue, just in case.
唐納德·亨德森醫(yī)生曾領(lǐng)導(dǎo)消滅全世界天花的斗爭(zhēng)，他預(yù)測(cè)即使有天脊髓灰質(zhì)炎被消滅了，免疫工作仍要繼續(xù)以確保萬(wàn)無(wú)一失。
That will drive up costs.
但這將推高行動(dòng)計(jì)劃的成本。
For now the GPEI is resolute. But the eradication campaign cannot last for ever.
目前全球根除脊髓灰質(zhì)炎的行動(dòng)是堅(jiān)決的，但病毒消滅戰(zhàn)役不可能永無(wú)休止地進(jìn)行下去。
| 重點(diǎn)單詞 | 查看全部解釋 | |||
| vigilant | ['vidʒilənt] |
想一想再看 adj. 警醒的，警戒著的，警惕的 |
聯(lián)想記憶 | |
| strategy | ['strætidʒi] |
想一想再看 n. 戰(zhàn)略，策略 |
||
| hubris | ['hju:bris] |
想一想再看 n. 傲慢，驕傲 |
聯(lián)想記憶 | |
| benefit | ['benifit] |
想一想再看 n. 利益，津貼，保險(xiǎn)金，義賣(mài)，義演 |
聯(lián)想記憶 | |
| administration | [əd.mini'streiʃən] |
想一想再看 n. 行政，管理，行政部門(mén) |
聯(lián)想記憶 | |
| unstable | ['ʌn'steibl] |
想一想再看 adj. 不穩(wěn)定的，易變的 |
||
| delicate | ['delikit] |
想一想再看 n. 精美的東西 |
||
| initiative | [i'niʃətiv] |
想一想再看 adj. 創(chuàng)始的，初步的，自發(fā)的 |
聯(lián)想記憶 | |
| concentrated | ['kɔnsentreitid] |
想一想再看 adj. 全神貫注的，濃縮的 動(dòng)詞concentrate |
||
| dealing | ['di:liŋ] |
想一想再看 n. 經(jīng)營(yíng)方法，行為態(tài)度 |
