American finance
美國金融

A lifeline for AIG
美國國際集團的救生索
America’s government comes to the rescue of a giant insurance company
美國政府決定拯救這個保險巨頭

AMERICAN finance has a new, if reluctant, kingpin: the government. In a dramatic move on the evening of Tuesday September 16th the Federal Reserve agreed to provide American International Group with a loan of $85 billion to help it stave off bankruptcy. In return, either the Fed or Treasury will take effective control of the company, which until recently was an icon of private-sector capitalism. In the space of nine days, the government has found itself having to take charge of both the country’s largest insurer and its two giant mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The move comes two days after Lehman Brothers, a big investment bank, filed for bankruptcy after being denied federal help, and Merrill Lynch, another Wall Street giant, fled into the arms of Bank of America for fear of being swept away by the hurricane battering global financial markets.

美國金融業(yè)現(xiàn)在有了個新的中流砥柱——美國政府，盡管它還有點不太情愿。在周二（9月16日）晚間美聯(lián)儲又有引人之舉–給美國國際集團貸款850億美元使其免遭破產(chǎn)的厄運。作為回報，美聯(lián)儲或者財政部將會接管這家到目前為止還是私人資本的標(biāo)志性的公司。在九天時間內(nèi)，美國政府發(fā)現(xiàn)它要掌管這個國家最大的保險公司和兩家房地產(chǎn)巨頭，房利美和房地美。兩天前，大型投行雷曼兄弟尋求美聯(lián)儲幫助未果而申請破產(chǎn)；同時，因擔(dān)心被這場橫掃全球的金融風(fēng)暴沖垮，另一家華爾街巨頭美林投身美國銀行的懷抱。上述美聯(lián)儲的救援行動便是在這樣的背景下而來的。

As well as writing general-insurance policies all over the world, AIG plunged disastrously into the market for derivatives linked to housing and credit. Its exposure to the murky credit-default swaps market alone is a notional $441 billion, enormous by anyone’s standards. As the market value of these derivatives fell, the firm found itself strapped for capital, and was forced last weekend to approach the Fed, cap in hand. The central bank initially demurred, instead nudging JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs to try to help AIG raise the money from private sources, such as other banks, private-equity firms and sovereign-wealth funds. Those efforts failed, however, and AIG’s predicament worsened on Monday when the big rating agencies downgraded its debt, forcing it to post more than $13 billion of extra collateral with trading partners. At that point officials performed a U-turn and began negotiating an emergency rescue.

美國國際集團不僅在全球發(fā)售普通保險，而且還深陷美國住房和信貸有關(guān)的衍生品市場。據(jù)估計，它僅在糟糕的信貸違約交易市場所曝光的交易額就達4410美元，以任何標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看這都是異常巨大的。隨著這些衍生品的貶值，美國國際集團發(fā)現(xiàn)自己資金嚴(yán)重匱乏，不得不被迫在上周畢恭畢敬地向美聯(lián)儲求援。美聯(lián)儲首先拒絕，催促摩根大通和高盛幫助美國國際集團從其它銀行，私募股權(quán)公司或者主權(quán)財富基金等私人資本渠道獲取資金。這些努力都失敗了，而且隨著周一大型評級公司調(diào)低了其債券等級，迫使其必須拿出額外的130億美元擔(dān)保給其貿(mào)易伙伴，這更加劇了美國國際集團的困境。在那時，政府官員開始”U型”大轉(zhuǎn)彎，準(zhǔn)備商討進行緊急救援。

They may have had no choice. Markets did not completely fall apart after Lehman’s bankruptcy, as some had feared, but they were highly agitated. The rate that big banks charge each other for short-term money jumped to three times the level in June, and the cost of protecting against their default broke records. Officials worried that the collapse of AIG, with its $1 trillion balance sheet and operations in 130 countries, could send the financial system into a tailspin. Its CDS counterparties, mostly banks, would have had to write down their positions, straining their capital ratios at the worst possible moment.

美國政府官員沒有選擇。市場在雷曼倒閉后雖沒有像有人擔(dān)心那樣完全崩潰，但是已經(jīng)極度不穩(wěn)了。大型銀行間短期拆借利率已經(jīng)變?yōu)榱路菟降娜?，而且防止其違約的成本已經(jīng)打破了記錄。美國政府官員擔(dān)心，資產(chǎn)負債表上擁有1萬億美元和在130個國家業(yè)務(wù)的美國國際集團的倒閉會使整個金融系統(tǒng)進入失控狀態(tài)。美國國際集團的信貸違約交易的同行，大多數(shù)是銀行，不得不為預(yù)防可能的最壞時刻的到來降低它們的頭寸，改變其資本比率。

The AIG bailout shows how hard it is for America’s financial authorities to steer a straight course through a crisis that is piling one systemic threat onto another. Bear Stearns had been helped in March for fear of chaos in derivatives markets, in which it was a leading player as a prime broker. And, in taking on Fannie and Freddie, they were belatedly making explicit the implicit government guarantee that the twins had long enjoyed in the eyes of investors. In allowing Lehman to go bust when competitors balked at taking it on, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, attempted to draw a line in the sand. But AIG was considered simply too big to fail.

對美國國際集團的拯救表明對美國金融當(dāng)局來說，在危機中保持正確的航線向前行進是多么的困難，因為這意味著將系統(tǒng)威脅傳遞給其它人。三月份幫助貝爾斯登是因為擔(dān)心衍生品市場的混亂，因為貝爾斯登作為一個主要經(jīng)紀(jì)人是衍生品市場的領(lǐng)軍人物。長期以來，在投資者眼里兩房后邊一直隱含著政府的擔(dān)保。而拯救兩房只不過就是讓這個隱含的含義變得更加清晰而已，雖然來的稍微晚點。當(dāng)競購者望而卻步時，讓雷曼倒閉是財長保爾森在努力恪守自己的底線。但是拯救美國國際集團的理由卻很簡單，它被認為是太大而不能倒。

Its deep reach into consumer finance also played a part in the decision to intervene. Had AIG gone bust, its millions of customers would have been left wondering if their car and home insurance policies were still valid, at a time when consumers are already twitchy about the safety of their bank deposits. Underlining the risk that the credit crisis poses to small investors, a money-market fund “broke the buck” on Tuesday-that is, its net asset value fell below $1-the first time this has happened since 1994.

而美國國際集團深入大眾消費者金融服務(wù)也在政府干涉的決定中也起著重要的作用。如果美國國際集團倒閉了，它數(shù)以百萬計的顧客會疑惑它們的汽車和房屋的保單是否還有效，在那時消費者會十分恐慌其銀行存款的安全。一個貨幣市場基金在周二”跌破凈值”–換句話說就是，其財產(chǎn)凈值跌破了一美元–這是自1994 年來首次發(fā)生此類事件，這更說明了信貸危機帶給小投資者的風(fēng)險。

The government has, at least, demanded a lot for stepping in. It will receive warrants entitling it to a 79.9% stake in AIG. The two-year loan, secured against AIG’s insurance businesses, carries an interest rate of LIBOR plus 850 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). The government will install new management and will have veto power over all important decisions, including asset sales and payment of dividends.

至少現(xiàn)在，美國政府為介入已經(jīng)要求很多了。美國政府被允許持有美國國際集團79.9％的股份。保護美國國際集團的保險業(yè)務(wù)的兩年期貸款(譯者注：前文所述的850億美元)的利率是倫敦銀行同業(yè)拆借利率加上850個基點（一個百分點的百分之一）。美國政府會重設(shè)一個新的管理層并且有包括資產(chǎn)出售和支付股息在內(nèi)的所有決定的否決權(quán)。

AIG will raise money to repay the loan by selling assets. The expectation is that the group will be broken up and sold, bit by bit. This would mark an extraordinary end for a company that as recently as last year enjoyed a market capitalisation of more than $170 billion. The company insists that it is illiquid, not insolvent, but the size of the loan suggests that its problems go beyond a short-term cash crunch.

美國國際集團會賣出資產(chǎn)以還貸。預(yù)計整個集團會分成幾部分分塊出售。這會給去年市值還超過1700億美元的美國國際集團劃上個意想不到的句號。美國國際集團堅稱其只是沒有流動資金而已，而不是破產(chǎn)，但是它貸款的規(guī)模卻暗示著它的問題遠超過短期現(xiàn)金短缺。

The question that hangs over the rescue-apart from whether taxpayers will get their money back-is whether the government can continue to deal with tottering financial companies in an ad hoc manner. Pressure is likely to grow for the creation of a more formal mechanism for handling the sick, akin to the Resolution Trust Corporation that took on bad assets from the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. That, at least, would make the hospitalisation process more transparent. After the historic events of the past fortnight, who would bet that AIG will be the last lumbering giant to need resuscitation?

撇開納稅人的錢是否能夠收回不說，即將發(fā)生的救援的問題在于政府在這個是否可以繼續(xù)以這種特別的方式來處理其它的處于困境的金融公司。現(xiàn)在更傾向于使用一種更加正式的機制來處理這種處于困境的公司，類似于上世紀(jì)八十年代儲蓄和貸款危機中的處理壞賬的”解決托拉斯公司的方案”。這種機制至少使”治療費用”的使用流程更加透明。在過去兩周發(fā)生的歷史性的事件后，誰敢保證美國國際集團是最后一個需要救助的陷入困境的巨頭呢？