The Future Global Economy and the Future Fund

未來的全球經濟和基金組織

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，國際貨幣基金組織總裁

Washington DC, Friday, October 11, 2013

華盛頓特區，星期五，2013年10月11日

Chairman Frieden, President Kim, Governors, Excellencies:

弗里頓主席、金行長、各位理事、各位尊敬的來賓：

I am delighted to welcome you, on behalf of the IMF, to our Annual Meetings.

我非常高興代表基金組織歡迎各位參加本屆年會。

Coming into these Meetings, I spoke of the Great Transition underway in the global economy: the changing patterns of growth; the changing dynamics of monetary policy; and the changes taking place in the financial sector as well as in the real economy. These transitions will be with us for some time.

這次年會上，我談及全球經濟正在經歷的大轉型：不斷變化的經濟增長模式；不斷變化的貨幣政策動態；以及金融業和實體經濟正在發生的變革。這些轉型將持續很長一段時間。

Even as we grapple with them, we have a responsibility to raise our eyes—and look toward some of the major changes that will transform the global economy over the next generation. I want to take the opportunity today to ask what this might mean for you, our member countries; and what it might mean for the Fund, your institution.

在處理這些轉型時，我們有責任將目光放得更遠，著眼于在今后二十多年里促使全球經濟發生轉變所需的重大變革。借此機會，我想問：這對我們的成員國意味著什么，對基金組織又意味著什么。

Our “constitution”—the Articles of Agreement that our founders devised nearly 70 years ago—have proven to be a feat of engineering: strong enough to stand the test of time, yet supple enough to respond to the many challenges that have faced our membership.

我們的“憲法”，即近70年前基金組織創立者制定的《基金組織協定》，是一項偉大的創舉：它足夠健全，能經受時間的考驗；它也足夠有彈性，能應對成員國面對的各種挑戰。

I am reminded of a Greek proverb about how a society grows great when old people plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.

我想到一則希臘格言，前人植樹卻不念蔭庇，社會才會更好地發展。

Our founders planted the trees that shade us today. Together, we must plant the trees that will provide shade for the generations to come.

今天，前人栽的樹為我們提供蔭庇，而我們也必須一起栽下樹苗，希冀為后代遮陽避雨。

Over the next generation, the rate and reach of change will be great. With that, the needs of our members will change. So too must the Fund.

在未來二十年，變革的速度可能相當快，范圍可能相當廣。成員國的需求會發生變化，基金組織也必須隨之變革。

The IMF must be flexible in its approach and focused on its core goals to best serve you, our members. Flexibility, focus, service—those are our guiding principles.

基金組織必須采取靈活的方法，重點關注其核心目標，以便最有效地服務于你們，我們的成員國。保持靈活，突出重點，提供服務——這是我們的指導原則。

In that spirit, I would like to share with you my thoughts on:

i. The road we have taken;

ii. The road we are on; and

iii. The road ahead—some of the long-term trends that will shape our future.

本著這種精神，我要和大家分享幾點想法：一、回首往昔；二、當前道路；三、展望未來——決定我們未來的一些長期趨勢。

I. The Road We Have Taken

一、回首往昔

So, where have we come from? The IMF was forged from change. In the midst of the devastation of the Second World War, nations came together to find a solution for the times—and a vision for the future.

那那么，我們是從何處起步的？基金組織是在變革中創立的。面對二戰帶來的破壞，各國齊心協力找到了應對時局的解決方案，并達成對未來的愿景。

It was the original multilateral moment.

那是最初的多邊時刻。

In the years since, the Fund’s mandate has endured: to promote global financial stability and help build a global economy in which all our members—and all people—can prosper.

自那以后，基金組織的使命一直是推動全球金融穩定，幫助構建一個所有成員國都能發展壯大、全人類成長進步的全球經濟。

Time and again, this has required the IMF to respond to changes.

這要求基金組織不斷地響應變化。

We began by helping Europe to rebuild after World War II. With the winds of change in Africa, and independence in many developing countries, there came a new wave of members—with a new wave of needs. In Latin America, the Fund responded to a major debt crisis. Another major financial crisis followed in Asia. When the Iron Curtain lifted, the Fund responded to another set of new members as they transformed themselves into market economies.

最初，我們協助歐洲進行二戰后的重建。隨著非洲的變革以及一些發展中國家的獨立，一批新成員加入基金組織，也提出新的需求?；鸾M織對拉丁美洲的債務危機做出了積極應對。隨后，亞洲爆發了另一次重大金融危機。當鐵幕被打破時，基金組織又對新成員國的市場經濟轉型做出了回應。

Amidst all this, in the 1970s, the Bretton Woods exchange rate system itself collapsed—and the Fund adapted to support the new monetary system.

在此期間還發生了二十世紀七十年代布雷頓森林體系的匯率制度崩潰，基金組織進行了調整，從而支持新的貨幣體系。

We may not have always got it right, but we have always learned—mostly by listening to you, our members. And, even as we have adapted, we have always stayed true to our mission—and true to our membership.

我們不可能一直正確，但我們一直在努力吸取經驗教訓——主要是通過聆聽你們，即全體成員國的意見。另外，在調整過程中，我們一直堅守著我們的使命，一直忠實于我們的成員國。

This proved to be an invaluable combination during the recent crisis. It is serving us well on the road we are now on.

最近的一次危機已經證明，這些是我們的寶貴特征。它們對于我們正在開展的事業有很多益處。

II. The Road We are On

二、當前道路

Indeed, the Great Recession generated unprecedented challenges—and the Fund responded in an unprecedented way. This was partly through the sheer scale of our financial support: we have provided more than $300 billion to help ease the burden of adjustment for our member countries in need. But that is far from the whole story.

大蕭條給我們帶來前所未有的挑戰，而基金組織的應對方式也史無前例。僅從基金組織的金融支持就能看出這一點：我們提供了3000多億美元，幫助減輕成員國的調整負擔。但基金組織的努力遠不止這些。

I think about the IMF’s early call for global fiscal stimulus—then, I was sitting where you are, now; our call for a stronger global firewall, including by increasing the Fund’s resources; and our consistent call to get the pace and mix of fiscal adjustment right. Now, as global growth dynamics are changing, it is critical that we continue to customize our advice to countries’ needs, always sensitive to the impact on growth and on people.

我想到了基金組織早期對全球財政刺激措施的呼吁——那時候我還坐在你們現在的位置；對加強全球防火墻的呼吁（其中包括增加基金組織資源）；以及一直以來的關于確保財政調整的適當速度和搭配的呼吁?，F在，隨著全球增長動態發生變化，我們必須繼續根據各國的需要提供建議，并隨時顧及其對增長和人們生活的影響。

Today, many of you are considering how to navigate the eventual exit from unconventional monetary policies in the advanced economies. Here, too, we are offering a neutral and tailored view of the challenges this may present—for all our members.

目前，大家都在考慮先進經濟體如何最終退出非常規貨幣政策。在這方面，我們也針對這一過程可能帶來的挑戰，向所有成員國提供中立的、有針對性的分析。

This crisis leaves behind the legacy of too little growth and too few jobs. More of our work is focusing on reforms to promote competitiveness, and to create growth and jobs. This resonates, of course, with the first of our Articles—which embeds concern for employment in our mandate.

這次危機留下了增長過慢、失業過高的問題。我們越來越將側重點放在能提升競爭力、推動增長并增加就業的改革上。這與《協定》的第一條相呼應——該條款內容將就業問題納入基金組織的職責。

Another defining feature of this crisis has been its global scope—and the Fund has responded globally.

這次危機的另一個本質特征是它的全球性，基金組織一直在全球范圍內做出應對。

Yes, Europe has received a lot of attention—not surprising since the Eurozone has been a focal point of the crisis. But over the past five years, we have made 150 new commitments to countries all around the globe.

我們的確非常關注歐洲，這并不奇怪，因為歐元區一直是危機的一個焦點。但在過去五年里，我們對遍及全球的許多國家做出了150項新的承諾。

This support has been delivered in new ways: zero-interest loans to help our low-income members—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa; crisis prevention insurance, including flexible credit lines for Colombia, Mexico and Poland; and capacity building and financial support for our Middle East members facing historic economic and political challenges.

基金組織采取多種新型方式提供支持：發放無息貸款，向低收入成員國，尤其是撒哈拉以南非洲國家提供幫助；通過靈活信貸額度等工具為哥倫比亞、墨西哥和波蘭提供危機防范保險；為那些面臨歷史性經濟和政策挑戰的中東成員國提供能力建設支持和金融支持。

The crisis has also led us to rethink our macroeconomic analysis and to adapt our policy advice—reflecting, above all, that we operate in an increasingly interconnected world.

這次危機也促使我們反思宏觀經濟分析，并調整政策建議——畢竟，我們處在一個相互關聯越來越緊密的世界。

This means placing even greater emphasis on spillovers—how policies in one country affect others—and doing even more to assess feedback loops and imbalances. We have pushed ahead on this over the past year, including through our Spillover Report; the pilot External Sector Report; and a new strategy for our work in the financial sector—which triggered the crisis in the first place.

這意味著要更加關注溢出效應——即，一個國家的政策如何對其他國家產生影響；這意味著進一步評估反饋回路和失衡。我們過去一年里在推進這方面的工作，包括《溢出效應報告》、試驗性《對外部門報告》，以及我們對觸發危機的金融部門的新工作戰略。

Another innovation is what we call ‘cluster’ analysis—looking at groups of economies that have strong interlinkages or common concerns. We completed these for a group of countries in southern Africa and also for several Nordic countries.

另一個創新是我們所稱的“群組”分析——分析具有緊密相互聯系或共同問題的一組經濟體。我們完成了對南部非洲的一組國家和幾個北歐國家的這種分析。

These new ideas and approaches have infused our core business—surveillance, lending, and technical assistance—carried out by our world-class staff.

這些創新思維和方法貫穿于由世界頂級工作人員從事的基金組織各項核心業務——監督、貸款以及技術支持。

You see them when they visit your countries—for technical discussions, for Article IV discussions, for program discussions.

他們也往來于成員國，提供技術援助，開展第四條款措施，進行規劃討論。

I see them at work every day—long days, sometimes long nights as well, and many weekends. I am deeply impressed by their tireless dedication. I am very proud of them—and I hope you are proud of them too. I know that you share my appreciation for the superb people who work at the Fund.

我每天看到他們加班，有時甚至通宵達旦，周末也不休息。他們兢兢業業的不懈努力讓我印象深刻，我為他們感到驕傲，我希望你們也為他們感到驕傲。我知道你們也與我一樣感謝在基金組織工作的優秀人才。

Let me also express my deep gratitude to our Executive Board. Their guidance and insights have helped ensure that the IMF’s response during this crisis has been effective and timely.

我還想對執董會致以誠摯的謝意。是他們的指導和真知灼見確?；鸾M織在危機期間能作出了有效和及時的響應。

Our tradition of adapting, while staying focused has enabled us to better serve you, our members.

我們的不斷調整、保持專注的傳統使們能夠更好地服務于你們，我們的成員國。

Again, flexibility, focus, service. These must remain our guideposts for the road ahead.

我再說一遍：保持靈活，突出重點，提供服務。在今后的道路上，我們必須繼續沿著這些路標前進。

III. The Road Ahead

三、展望未來

Why venture into the future? Because the future is a promise that only time can deliver.

為什么要向未來行進？因為未來是一種希望，這種希望只有時間才能成就。

At the Fund—Management, staff, and your Executive Directors—we have been giving some thought to the long-term trends that might shape the next generation.

在基金組織，我們的管理層、工作人員和執董們一直在思考，塑造未來二十多年全球形態的長期趨勢有哪些。

I will mention three: a more multipolar world; a more financially integrated world; and what I would describe as the “new frontiers of risk”.

我想談下面三個趨勢：更加多極化的世界；金融日益一體化的世界；以及我先前所提出的 “新風險領域”。

The first is a more multi-polar world.

首先是更加多極化的世界。

In just the next decade, the share of emerging and developing economies in global GDP will increase from about half to nearly two-thirds. Per capita incomes will converge across countries, with a rapidly expanding middle class in those nations.

下個十年，新興經濟體和發展中經濟體占全球GDP的比例將從二分之一攀升至三分之二。世界各國人均收入將趨同，這些國家的中產階級將迅速壯大。

So the stage is set for a world, 20 or 30 years from now, where economic power will be far less concentrated in the advanced economies—and more vastly dispersed across all regions.

我們已經預見到了20或30年后的世界格局，那時經濟實力將不會聚集在先進經濟體，而是廣泛分散在世界各地。

What does this mean for the Fund?

這對基金組織來說意味著什么？

We must be even more representative and mirror these shifts—and we are already moving in this direction.

我們需要一個代表性更強的基金組織，以反映這些變化——我們正在朝這個方向努力。

We all know what is at stake with the 2010 governance reforms. Once implemented—I am hopeful it will happen, even if not as quickly as we all would have liked—the IMF will have a platform on which to build further.

我們都了解2010年治理改革的重要性。一旦實施這些改革——我對此持有信心，盡管目前的進展沒有我們預期得那么快——基金組織將立于一個不斷加筑平臺之上。

Representation, of course, is not just about shares or chairs. It is also about how we engage with our members. To be their trusted advisor, our analysis and advice must meet important tests: it must be of the highest quality; it must be objective; it must be even-handed; and it must be of help to you.

當然，代表性并不僅限于投票權比重或席位，還關乎我們如何與成員國接觸交流。要成為值得信賴的咨詢顧問，我們的分析和建議必須滿足一些重要的要求——高質量、客觀性、公正性，以及對成員國的有用性。

We are committed to meet those tests.

我們將努力滿足這些要求。

They will become even more relevant as our membership faces a world of increasing financial integration—that is my second long-term trend.

隨著成員國面對著一個金融一體化程度越來越高的世界（這也是我要講的第二個長期趨勢），這些工作的重要性也越來越突出。

When the IMF was founded, private financial flows barely registered. By the time of the crisis, the degree of financial integration had increased by a multiple of ten or more.

基金組織成立時，私人資金流動很少。但到金融危機出現前夕，金融一體化的程度已經提高了不止十倍。

Today, the world economy is not simply connected, it is hyperconnected. This will propel financial integration on a scale not yet quantified, and to corners of the world not yet reached.

如今的世界經濟不是簡單地相互關聯，而是超級互聯。這將促使金融一體化以不可估量的規模推進到目前還未觸及的世界各個角落。

As emerging and developing countries grow and converge, their financial interconnections will become deeper and more complex.

隨著新興市場和發展中國家的增長和收入的趨同，它們的金融互聯性將進一步深化和復雜化。

Deeper integration will fuel growth, but not without risk. Experience teaches us an important lesson: greater financial integration raises the probability and size of financial crises.

深度的一體化將促進增長，但也會帶來風險。歷史經驗告訴了我們一個重要的道理：金融一體化的加深加大了金融危機的概率，也放大了金融危機的影響范圍。

What does it mean for the Fund? And for you?

這對基金組織來說意味著什么？對你們又意味著什么？

It means sharpening our tools for crisis prevention: strengthening our work on financial sector risks, repair, and reform; more thorough and timely analysis of interlinkages and spillovers between countries; and clearer early warning.

這意味著我們要增強危機防范工具：加強在金融部門風險、修復和改革方面的努力；更全面、及時地分析各國之間的相互聯系和溢出效應；并提供更明確的預警。

It also means strengthening our support for crisis resolution: adapting our lending toolkit as needed; strengthening our cooperation, including with regional financial arrangements; and ensuring that the burden of adjustment is shared fairly.

它還意味著加大對危機處置機制的支持：根據需要調整我們的貸款工具；加強合作，包括與區域融資安排的合作；確保調整負擔的公平分攤。

It also raises the question of ensuring that the Fund will have enough resources to help our members deal with future crises.

它還意味著，要確保基金組織擁有足夠的資源來幫助成員國應對未來的危機。

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all member countries who agreed to transfer gold profits to help meet the financing needs of the low-income countries in the years ahead.

我還想借此機會感謝所有成員國同意將出售黃金所得利潤用于滿足低收入國家未來融資需求的善舉。

The capacity to prevent and resolve crises will be vital.

強化防范和處置風險的能力至關重要。

This is especially true given the “new frontiers of risk” that our membership will face—that is my final long-term trend.

尤其是考慮到成員國將要面臨的新風險領域，更是如此。這也是我下面要談的第三個也是最后一個長期主題。

These are challenges you are well aware of. We, at the Fund, are sharpening our focus on their economic effects. Let me mention a few.

這都是你們都十分關注的挑戰領域。基金組織正在重點分析它們的經濟影響。下面我具體講幾個。

Demographic shifts will affect growth and stability.

人口轉型將影響增長和穩定。

By 2030, there will be 1.1 billion more people in the world than today—97 percent of them will be in emerging and developing countries. One billion people will be 65 years or older. These demographics—and their inter-generational costs—will dramatically affect education, healthcare, savings, pensions, public spending.

到2030年時，世界人口將比現在增加11億，新增人口中新興市場和發展中國家占據97%。此外，65歲以上老人將達到10億。這種人口狀況以及代際成本將極大地影響教育、醫療、儲蓄、養老金和公共支出。

Income distribution will also affect growth and stability.

收入分配問題也將對增長和穩定造成影響。

Today, inequality stands at levels not seen since the Fund was created. In many countries, this has led to growing frustration and breakdowns in social and political cohesion. The current recovery is not reversing this trend. It remains too uneven—too many people are unemployed, too many people are left out.

目前，收入不平等已經達到基金組織成立以來的最高水平。在很多國家，這已經引發了越來越多的不滿，并導致社會和政治凝聚力的失卻。目前的經濟復蘇也未能扭轉這個趨勢。復蘇也是嚴重失衡的——太多人失業，太多人被甩下。

Environmental sustainability will affect growth and stability.

環境可持續性問題也將影響增長和穩定。

Average temperatures are rising, and with it the risk of more frequent natural disasters, more volatile agricultural output, and more food and water insecurity. In many countries, particularly the poorest, it will exacerbate their already fragile state.

平均氣溫不斷升高，帶來更頻繁的自然災害、農業產出的波動加劇、食品和飲用水的愈發不安全。在很多國家，尤其是最貧困的國家，全球變暖將惡化其本已脆弱的局勢。

What does this mean for the Fund? And for you?

那么，這些對基金組織來說意味著什么呢？對你們又意味著什么呢？

These issues threaten the macroeconomic health of our member countries. In that case, they must be a part of our work. There are a number of ways that we can help.

這些問題將威脅成員國的宏觀經濟穩健，因而它們也必須成為基金組織工作的一部分。我們可以通過多種方式提供幫助。

I am not suggesting we go into the territory of others, but we can and must cooperate more effectively, with the Bank and others, drawing on their expertise as needed—and offering ours. I am thinking, for instance, of our fiscal advice on carbon pricing.

我們不會染指其他機構的領地，但是我們能，也必須與世行和其他機構更有效地合作，吸取對我們有用的專業知識，同時分享我們的專長，例如在有關碳定價的財政建議方面。

For another, we can help focus global attention on specific issues. Take, for example, our recent research on energy subsidies. It showed how global savings of almost $2 trillion could be used to help better protect the environment and the poor. The same is true for our research demonstrating the linkage between income equality and sustained growth.

另一方面，我們能推動全球專注于特定問題。對能源補貼的最新研究就是一個例子。該研究分析了如何利用全球能源補貼改革節省下來的2萬億美元，更好地保護環境和貧困人口。其他有用的研究還包括關于收入平等和可持續增長之間的關聯。

And, just a few weeks ago, a new IMF study showed that engaging women more fully in the labor market, could increase per capita incomes by almost 30 percent in some cases, but in most by a margin of 3 percent. This could be an economic game-changer. And given that today is The International Day of the Girl, there is no better time to convey this message!

幾周之前，一份新的基金組織研究表明，積極支持女性加入勞動力市場能使有些國家的人均收入提高近30%，多數國家也可以提升3%。這個行動將打開世界各國的經濟局面。今天正好是國際女孩節，在今天發出這樣的訊息是最適當不過了！

In all these areas, the Fund’s comparative advantage, again, is to bring our macro-critical perspective to bear. Maintaining that focus and adapting our approach is what has made the IMF an effective institution in the past. Retaining that focus and adapting our approach will enable us to support our membership effectively in the future.

在這些新領域，基金組織的比較優勢在于其宏觀批判視角。對這一點的執著以及不斷調整我們的工作方法，是基金組織多年來一直是一個高效組織的原因。繼續秉承這一傳統重點并保持調整，也是我們未來更有效地對成員國提供支持的保障。

Conclusion: Forging a New Future Together

總結：共同塑造美好明天

Mr. Chairman, Governors, Excellencies:

主席、各位理事、各位尊敬的來賓：

Almost 70 years ago, the IMF began with some 40 members. Today, there are 188 of you. Together we are the Fund. You are the Fund.

約70年前基金組織成立時只有40來個成員國。如今，已有188國之眾。在一起，我們就是基金組織。你們就是基金組織。

As I stand here with you, I recognize an IMF that was founded on the spirit of international cooperation.

我和在座諸位都意識到，基金組織是建立在國際合作的精神基座之上的。

But, more than that, the principles I have talked about today—flexibility, focus, service—have helped us stand the test of time.

不僅如此，我今天談到的幾個原則——保持靈活，突出重點，提供服務——也幫助我們一同經歷了時間的考驗。

The philosopher Edmund Burke described society as “a partnership in every virtue, and in all perfection… a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are to be born.”

哲人埃德蒙德·柏克將社會形容為“寓于各種道德、一切完美意義上的合作關系??它不僅僅是當世者的合作，而且也是后來者的合作”。

This is how I see the IMF—as a partnership between its member countries. A partnership of the present—and for the future.

這也是我對基金組織的看法——它是我們成員國之間的合作，不論是現在，還是未來。

Thank you.

謝謝！

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