Euro-Area Economy in the Danger Zone. The economist January 11th，2014
歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨危機(jī) 《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》2014年1月11日
If future proof was needed that the euro crisis has ended as far as bond markets are concerned, it was provided by Ireland's successful bond auction on January 7th. But the legacy of the acute phase of the crisis, when weak governments on the periphery of the euro area were besieged by bond markets, remains a grim one. The euro-wide unemployment rate stayed stuck at 12.1%, according to official figures published on January 8th.
如果需要進(jìn)一步證明就債券市場(chǎng)而言，歐元區(qū)危機(jī)已經(jīng)結(jié)束，那么1月7日愛(ài)爾蘭公債標(biāo)售的成功就很好地說(shuō)明了這一點(diǎn)。但是，當(dāng)處于歐元區(qū)邊緣的那些軟弱政府受到債券市場(chǎng)的影響時(shí)，危機(jī)嚴(yán)重時(shí)期遺留下來(lái)的問(wèn)題仍然非常嚴(yán)峻。根據(jù)官方在1月8號(hào)公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，歐元區(qū)范圍內(nèi)的失業(yè)率停留在12.1%。
Even so, unemployment across the euro zone does appear to have stabilised. The hope now is that it may start to edge down as a weak recovery continues. An index of private-sector output compiled by Markit, a data provider, suggests that the euro area grew by 0.2% in the final three months of 2013.
即便如此，失業(yè)率在整個(gè)歐元區(qū)似乎已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定下來(lái)。現(xiàn)在的希望是，當(dāng)疲弱的復(fù)蘇繼續(xù)下去，失業(yè)率可能會(huì)開(kāi)始小幅下降。數(shù)據(jù)供應(yīng)商Markit公布，私營(yíng)部門(mén)產(chǎn)出指數(shù)顯示，歐元區(qū)在2013年最后三個(gè)月增長(zhǎng)了0.2%。
Inflation is now uncomfortably far beneath the target rate set by the European Central Bank (ECB) of below but close to 2%. When overall inflation is so weak, it makes it harder for countries on the periphery to regain competitiveness by keeping their prices down. And it raises the risk of outright deflation. If prices were to start falling, it would intensify the euro zone's woes which are bound up with excessive debt, both public and private. Deflation would cause that debt to rise in real terms. It could also stymie the recovery as people delay purchases because they will become cheaper. But if inflation weakens further the ECB may have to embrace radical remedies, such as setting negative interest rates on deposits.
通貨膨脹指數(shù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于歐洲央行設(shè)定的目標(biāo)，低于但接近2%，這仍令人不安。當(dāng)通脹率整體低下，處于歐元區(qū)邊緣的國(guó)家很難通過(guò)低價(jià)來(lái)重獲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。這也提出了通貨緊縮的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果價(jià)格開(kāi)始下降，這將加劇歐元區(qū)的危機(jī)，這些危機(jī)是與過(guò)度負(fù)債聯(lián)系在一起的，不管是在公共領(lǐng)域還是私人領(lǐng)域。通貨緊縮會(huì)導(dǎo)致債務(wù)上升的實(shí)質(zhì)。同時(shí)當(dāng)人們因物品會(huì)變得更加便宜而推遲購(gòu)買(mǎi)活動(dòng)，也可能阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。但是，如果通脹進(jìn)一步降低，歐洲央行可能不得不接受根治性療法，例如對(duì)銀行存款設(shè)置負(fù)利率。
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