The molecules of mayhem: Biology and financial instability
混亂分子：生物學和金融界的不穩定性
The Hour Between Dog and Wolf: Risk-Taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust. By John Coates.
狗和狼之間的那一刻：冒險、 直覺和繁榮與蕭條的生物學。由約翰·科茨。
The financial crisis was caused by many things: greedy bankers, a glut of Chinese savings,shoddy regulation, an obsession with home ownership—take your pick. John Coates, once a trader on Wall Street and now a neuroscientist at Cambridge University, presents yet another culprit: biology, or, more precisely, the physiology of risk-taking. Financial traders, he says, are influenced by what is going on in their bodies as well as in the markets. Two steroid hormones—testosterone and cortisol—come out in force during the excesses of bull and bear markets.
導致金融危機的因素有好幾個：貪婪的銀行家、 中國的大筆儲蓄、 具誤導性的監管制度、 對擁屋的癡迷— — 任你挑選。約翰·科茨曾是華爾街的交易員，如今身為劍橋大學神經科學家的他，認為另有生物學因素在作祟，確切來說是冒險生理機能。他認為金融交易員會受到生理情況以及市場局勢影響，強勁的牛市和熊市出現時,　兩類固醇激素，就是睪酮和皮質醇會劇增。

Testosterone, “the molecule of irrational exuberance”, is released into the body during moments of competition, risk-taking and triumph. In animals this leads to something called the “winner effect”. A male that wins one battle goes into the next one primed with higher levels of testosterone, helping him to win again. Eventually, though, confidence becomes cockiness. The animal starts more fights and experiences higher rates of mortality.
處在競爭，冒險和勝利的當兒，身體會釋放出睪酮--“非理性能量的分子"。動物體內的睪酮會導致一種"贏家效應"。雄性動物在斗爭中取得一次勝利時，體內更大量的睪酮會幫助它贏得下一場勝利。但最終，信心會膨脹成自大而急于挑起更多斗爭和提高了死亡率。
Mr Coates thinks the exuberance that turns a market rally into a bubble may be fuelled by the same chemical. Some of this is based on traders he knew who became ever more convinced of their own invincibility during the dotcom era. But he also offers harder evidence. In one experiment Mr Coates sampled testosterone levels in traders in London and found that higher levels of the hormone in the morning correlated with beefier profits in the afternoon. Such profits came from taking higher risks, not greater skill.
科茨先生認為這是推動股市升溫成泡沫現象的“化學能量”。部分結論來自他所認識的交易員。 處在互聯網世代的這些交易員更加堅信自己是無敵的。此外，他也提供了比較確鑿的證據。在一次實驗中，科茨先生對倫敦交易員做了睪酮量的抽樣調查。他發現早晨中偏高的激素量與午后的高利潤有著相互關聯。 這種利潤來自更高的風險承擔，而不是更好的技巧。
Biology may also be responsible for worsening market sentiment in bad times. The body’sresponse to prolonged periods of stress is to secrete increasing amounts of cortisol, ahormone that marshals resources to cope with crises. Sure enough, Mr Coates finds that cortisol levels in traders’ bodies fluctuate in line with market volatility, even displaying a strikingcorrelation with the prices of derivatives.
生物學也可能會使市場的動蕩局勢惡化。身體在應付長期承受的壓力時，會增加皮質醇(激素)的分泌。這種激素掌管的是對付危機的資源。科茨先生果然得出交易員體內的皮質醇含量會與股市一同波動，甚至是與衍生產品的價格有明顯的相互關聯。

A burst of chemicals can be helpful. Good traders seem to produce a lot of hormones, but only for short periods of time. The trouble comes when cortisol remains in the body for extendedperiods. Rational analysis becomes harder, allowing emotional responses to gain the upper hand; risk aversion grows as testosterone production is suppressed. “During a severe bear market,” writes Mr Coates, “the banking and investment community may rapidly develop into aclinical population.”
一陣的化學效應是有它的用處。好的交易員體內似乎是會分泌較多的激素，但情況只限于在短時間內。皮質醇兜里在體內的時間若有延長，反而會有麻煩。這使到交易員無法做出理性的分析，被情緒控制;體內接著在壓制睪酮量時會導致回避風險的傾向。科茨先生形容嚴重熊市會迅速的將銀行和投資社區變成臨床個案。
One answer, he thinks, is to change the chemical make-up of trading floors by hiring more older men and, especially, women. Their bodies release far less testosterone. Women have the same levels of cortisol as men, but their stress response is triggered less by competitive failures and more by problems in their personal lives. That may make them more resilient when the markets turn against them.
他認為其中一個答案，是通過較有年齡的男性或女性雇員的增加來改變交易所內的化學成分。他們體內分泌的睪酮量遠少于年輕男性。女性與男性體內的皮質醇含量相同，但刺激點不一樣。女性的壓力反應較少來自競爭的失敗，更多是來自私人問題。這或許令她們在不利的市場情況下更有彈性。
Mr Coates’s thesis is not entirely convincing. The experimental data are too scarce and thedistinction he draws between the masculine world of risk-taking traders and the more feminised world of asset managers skips over the fact that many supposedly cautious, long-term investors made poor bets in the boom. But it makes intuitive sense that biological responses inform the mood of the markets. This book puts flesh on that idea.
科茨先生的論文無法令人完全信服。他所采用的實驗數據太少，把男性所壟斷的交易員工作與女性為主的資產管理員工作做了區分，但卻忽視了一個事實。很多帶謹慎態度的長期投資者總會在牛市氣氛中下錯注。直覺上知道生物反應能告知市場情緒是有他的道理的。這本書把該想法具體化。