作文題目:

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

題目講解:

【翻譯】

Balmer Island的人口在夏季達到了100000。為減少由助力車和行人引發的事故，Balmer Island市委應把本島六個助力車和自行車出租公司的助力車出租數量在夏季從每天50輛限制到每天30輛。通過限制出租數量，市委肯定能夠實現助力車事故減少50%的目標，就像去年鄰島Torseau市委實施了類似的對于助力車出租的限制后所達到的那樣。

【分析】

1、作者沒有提供足夠的證據證明減少出租的數量事故就會減少，人們可能會自己購買自行車

2、作者也沒有提供任何臨近島嶼的情況，可能和Balmer Island Gazette完全不同

3、作者還忽略了其它因素：比如，考慮其它能夠減少事故的因素是否比限制租車數量更好;此外，Torseau去年事故的減少是否是因為限制出租的結果

【提綱】

1絕對數字，人比從前增加了多少。即使人增多了事故未必增多。

2助力車和自行車減少了未必導致事故一定減少，汽車。即使減少也未必一定能減少50%，原來有多少事故。

3樣本差異。T成功不說明B也成功。T可能助力車占主導，路況不好，人多城市小交通擁擠。