Afghanistan's top intelligence officer is rejecting a U.S. estimate that only 30 percent of the country is under the control of the central government in Kabul. Amrullah Saleh suggested U.S. officials misunderstand Afghanistan's traditional governing system using local tribes.

阿富汗高級情報官員否認了美國估算的阿富汗中央政府僅僅控制阿富汗30%的地區的說法。阿富汗情報局局長薩利赫認為，美國官員們誤解了阿富汗使用地方部落來進行管理的傳統管理制度。

Last week, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell said most of Afghanistan is controlled by local tribes, about 10 percent is controlled by Taliban fighters and less than one third of the territory is controlled by President Hamid Karzai's government.

美國國家情報總監麥康奈爾上星期說，阿富汗的大部分地區被地方部落控制，塔利班戰士控制了大約10%的地區，而阿富汗總統卡爾扎伊領導的政府僅僅控制了不到三分之一的地區。

On Monday in Kabul, Afghanistan's intelligence chief dismissed the claim.

阿富汗情報局局長薩利赫星期一在喀布爾否認了這一說法。

He said the percentage in that statement was totally baseless.

他說，美國發表的這份聲明中的數據是完全沒有根據的。

Amrulleh Saleh said that eight of the country's 364 districts, which account for about five percent of the land and two percent of Afghanistan's population, are outside central government control.

薩利赫說，在阿富汗的364個地區中，有8個地區不受阿富汗中央政府的控制，這8個地區大約占阿富汗土地面積的5%，占阿富汗總人口的2%。

During a news conference in Kabul, he blamed the widely divergent estimates on U.S. officials misunderstanding how Afghanistan's traditional tribal governing system functions.

在喀布爾召開的一次新聞發布會上，薩利赫批評美國官員由于誤解了阿富汗傳統的部落統治制度的運作方式，以致其估算產生了大幅度的偏差。

"While in America, an administration fully backed by tribal chiefs or dominated by tribal chiefs may be seen as a liability," said Saleh. "But here we see it as a very strong asset."

他說：“在美國，由部落領袖支持或控制的政府可能被看作是一種負擔，但是在阿富汗，我們把它看作是一種非常強大的資產。”

But there are questions about how loyal these local tribal leaders are to carrying out the agenda of the Karzai government.

不過，至于這些地方部落領袖在執行阿富汗政府的計劃方面有多么忠誠，這還是個疑問。

London-based Paul Burton is a policy analyst with the Senlis Council, a research organization studying drug and security issues in Afghanistan. He says the loyalty of local tribal leaders to the central government depends in a large part on Kabul's ability to deliver benefits to them.

居住在倫敦的伯頓是森利斯委員會的政策分析人士。森利斯委員會是研究阿富汗毒品與安全問題的研究機構。他說，地方部落領袖對阿富汗中央政府的忠誠度很大程度上取決于喀布爾方面能否給他們提供一些好處。

In southern Afghanistan, Burton says the central government struggles to provide even basic services.

伯頓說，在阿富汗南部，阿富汗中央政府甚至還不能提供基本的服務項目。

"We document, on a regular basis, an appalling lack of aid going to core infrastructure such as hospitals - in Kandahar for example," he said. "So within that context I think it is impossible for local tribal leaders to feel a great degree of warmth toward the center when they are seeing their people ravished and impoverished."

他說：“比如在坎大哈，我們的記錄顯示，像醫院等一些重點機構經常面臨救援物資的短缺。因此我認為，在這種情況下，當地方部落領袖們看到他們的人民生活在恥辱和貧窮中時，他們不可能會對中央政府產生極大的熱情。”

Burton says the security situation in parts of the country has severely impeded efforts to develop government infrastructure.

伯頓說，阿富汗部分地區的安全狀況嚴重地阻礙了在改善政府機構方面所作的努力。

Last year Afghanistan experienced the most intense fighting since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. News agencies have estimated that more than 6,000 people, most of whom were militants, were killed in the fighting in 2007.

Burton says there is evidence that some families are simultaneously backing Taliban and Afghan army (ANA) and police forces (ANP), merely because they are unsure who will prevail in the struggle for control.

伯頓說，有證據表明，一些阿富汗家庭同時支持塔利班組織、阿富汗國民軍和阿富汗國民警察，他們這樣做僅僅是因為他們不確定哪一方會獲得得控制權。

"We have evidence to suggest that people are putting one fund into the Taliban and another fund into the ANA and another into the ANP," he said. "They are hedging their bets - they are seeing which side is going to win - purely driven from a sense of desperation."

他說：“我們有證據證明，人們投一部分資金給塔利班組織，投一部分資金給阿富汗國民軍，再投另一部分資金給阿富汗國民警察。他們在保護他們的賭注，他們僅僅是在用一種絕望的心理來猜測哪一方將會獲勝。”

One important indicator of the strength of the U.S.-backed Karzai government has been its ability, or inability, to curb opium-poppy cultivation. This week, the U.S. State Department reported that narcotics production in the country hit historic highs in 2007 for the second straight year.

衡量美國支持的阿富汗政府的力量的一個重要指標是它能否有能力抑制鴉片原料罌粟的種植。美國國務院本星期發表的報告說，阿富汗2007年的毒品生產量已經連續第二年創下歷史高峰。

U.S. analysts said the estimated $4 billion in illicit opium accounted for more than a third of Afghanistan's gross domestic product.

美國分析人士說，據估計，違法的鴉片交易帶來的40億美元的收入占阿富汗國民生產總值的三分之一以上。