But Iran also got some much needed good news when Joe Biden won the presidential election. Now there is reason for hope among those in Iran who desperately want the U.S. to return to the nuclear deal—and the economic relief it might bring if sanctions are eased. With a presidential election in Iran next year, and Iran's hard-liners working to undermine President Hassan Rouhani, Iran's negotiators won't want to look weak at the table. But Rouhani knows that Biden's top diplomat, Tony Blinken, and National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, are veterans of the Obama Administration negotiations that made the original deal in 2015.

THIS TIMING HELPS explain why Israel might have moved to kill the nuclear scientist now. Donald Trump is still President. Any displeasure from the incoming Biden team can be managed, and at the very least, Iran's nuclear program has likely been set back once again. (Israel has been blamed for killing Iranian scientists in the past, though none of Fakhrizadeh's stature.) Perhaps Israel is hoping that Iran's hardliners will persuade the Supreme Leader to try to launch a showy retaliatory attack that will make it much more difficult for the Biden Administration to re-enter the nuclear deal. But the timing also helps explain why Iran's retaliation will be measured carefully to avoid escalation. Biden represents the one hope Iran has of getting its economy back on track anytime soon.

Iran's accusations that Israel killed Fakhrizadeh are made plausible by the sophistication of the attack, and therein lies a worrisome sign of things to come. It appears the nuclear scientist and his security detail were attacked with a remote-controlled machine gun. It's the kind of "lethal autonomous weapon" we're used to seeing in movies. New technologies, particularly the increasing sophistication of drone aircraft, will make asymmetric warfare more common and more effective.

譯文由可可原創(chuàng)，僅供學(xué)習(xí)交流使用，未經(jīng)許可請勿轉(zhuǎn)載。