The stakes in Ukraine烏克蘭“電話門”事件所冒的風險In the impeachment inquiry, while there is a clear one-sentence summary of what Trump did—盡管彈劾調查一句話便言簡意賅地道明了特朗普的所作所為——he hijacked American foreign policy to attempt to extort an investigation of a political rival from a desperate American ally—綁架國家外交政策，企圖逼迫走投無路的美國盟友調查其政治對手，there is no good and simple explanation of the harm he stood to inflict on American national interests.特朗普可能給民族利益造成的危害卻并非三言兩語就能說清的。It's in understanding the gravity of the harm that Americans can begin to answer the question, "Why now?"只有明白這一危害的嚴重性，美國民眾才能對“為何現在（彈劾他）？”這一問題有所眉目。Even if Trump did do something wrong, why impeach him during an election year?即便特朗普有錯在先，為何一定要選在選舉年彈劾他？Why seek to remove him the very year when voters can render their own judgment on his candidacy?為何要選擇在選民能夠對他的候選資格做出自主判斷時將他趕下臺？The answer is short—because Trump's corruption could have had profound strategic consequences—答案很簡單——那就是，特朗普的腐敗行徑原本可能造成極為嚴重的戰略后果——but the explanation is a bit longer,具體解釋起來卻要麻煩一些，and it requires the assistance of a timely report on Russian military capabilities from the RAND Corporation.需要調取蘭德研究所分析俄羅斯軍事力量的一份報告。The report is clear.這份報告寫得很清楚。Many Americans are aware of Russia's capabilities in cyberwarfare and disinformation operations,不少美國人對俄羅斯開展網絡戰和散布假情報的能力都已有一定的了解，

but they're largely unaware of advances in its conventional military capabilities.但對俄羅斯常規軍事力量取得的進展大多不甚了了。Russia has accomplished two things of real importance in the past decade or so of military modernization.過去的近十年時間里，俄羅斯在軍事現代化方面取得了兩項重大成就。First, it has substantially modernized and professionalized its force.其一，該國的部隊經歷了顯著的現代化、專業化革新。Second, it has optimized it for operations that are designed to place NATO,其二，該國部隊還做了進一步的優化部署，以便開展行動，our most vital international alliance, in perhaps an impossible military, strategic and political bind.將我們最重要的國際聯盟——北約逼入或將無法擺脫的軍事、戰略及政治困境。Russia's military progress has been on public display in two vital world regions:俄羅斯的軍事進步在國際上頗為重要的兩個地區得到了公開展示：the Middle East (where it has proved remarkably effective at defeating the Syrian regime's internal enemies) and, crucially, in Ukraine.一個是中東（事實表明，在擊敗敘利亞政權的內部敵人方面，俄羅斯表現頗為優秀），另一個，也是最為關鍵的一個，便是烏克蘭。In the RAND report's words, when Russian forces invaded Crimea in 2014, "few were surprised by the annexation,"用蘭德報告的話說，2014年俄羅斯軍隊入侵克里米亞時，“鮮有人對這一吞并之舉感到意外，”but "many were surprised by the performance of the Russian armed forces."但“俄羅斯武裝部隊的表現卻是很多人都沒有想到的。”Indeed, they've also "made Western militaries pay increasing attention to the threat不僅如此，他們還“引起了西方軍隊that the Russian military would pose in any future conflict in Eastern Europe."對未來東歐發生任何沖突時俄羅斯軍隊對其構成的威脅的日益重視。”

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