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Korea expert Victor Cha on the big summit
韓國問題專家車維德就金特會發表看法
By Joseph Hincks/Seoul
文/（首爾）約瑟夫·亨克斯
HAD VICTOR CHA BEEN NOMINATED AS U.S. ambassador to South Korea,
如果提名車維德擔任美國駐韓大使，
he might have spent his spring preparing for the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
這個春天，他或許都將在為金特會做準備。
But the former Bush Administration official was dropped as a candidate in January
然而，在反對對朝鮮政權采取先發制人的軍事行動后，
after voicing opposition to preemptive military action on the regime.
這位前布什政府官員在今年1月被取消了候選人資格。
He tells TIME about his expectations for the summit.
日前，他對本刊傾訴了他對這次峰會的期望。
South Korean President Moon Jaein credited Trump’s “maximum pressure” for bringing Kim to the negotiating table.
韓國總統文在寅表示，促使金正恩走上談判桌的是特朗普的“最大壓力”政策。
Do you think this policy of heavy sanctions was a key driver?
在您看來，特朗普的嚴厲制裁政策真的起到了關鍵作用嗎？
I do. In 2017 they were able to get more economic pressure on the regime than it’s ever felt before.
我認為起到了。2017年，他們對朝鮮政權施加的經濟壓力之大堪稱前所未有。
I was always of the view that that policy would work,
我一直都認為這項政策會奏效，
because North Korea doesn’t tend to lash out militarily when they feel economic pressure.
因為感受到了經濟壓力的朝鮮往往不會采取軍事行動。
They want to come to the negotiating table and see how they can get that pressure taken off.
他們會想走上談判桌，看看如何才能消除這種壓力。
Is the White House correct to say the Obama Administration’s policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea failed?
白宮說，奧巴馬政府對朝實施的“戰略耐心”策略失敗了，這種說法對嗎？
We had a period of eight years where the North Korea missile and nuclear problem got exponentially worse.
曾經有八年的時間，朝鮮的導彈及核問題一直是呈指數級惡化態勢的。
One could argue that it was the fault of the policy.
你可以說，這種局面，錯在政策。
One could also argue that the North Koreans had a very clear plan
也可以說朝鮮的計劃是非常明確的，
and that there was nothing the Obama Administration could have done to take them off that course.
問題在于朝鮮政權在他們的道路上走了太遠，奧巴馬政府已經無能為力。
I think there’s credibility to that second argument.
我認為第二個說法是比較可靠的。
This is just not an issue historically to bet on if you are looking for a win.
從過去的經驗來看，如果你想贏的話，這根本就不是一個適合打賭的話題。
There’s a theory Kim is an enlightened reformer looking for a way to do things differently. Do you buy that?
有一種說法說金正恩是一位開明的改革者，他不過是在另辟蹊徑而已。您認同這種說法嗎？
People are entitled to that theory, but there’s a very clear, systematic approach he has been taking,
人們有權持這種看法，但他采取的方式一直是比較清晰、系統的，
which is to go full bore over the past two years on the nuclear weapons program.
那就是，過去兩年，全力以赴發展核力量。
Kim declared it complete in December, and they feel like they’re now secure with this capability.
去年12月，金正恩宣布導彈防御系統已經部署完畢，現在，他們覺得可以高枕無憂了。
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