評(píng)論
打印
It's the part of mathematics that even mathematicians don't particularly like,
統(tǒng)計(jì)是數(shù)學(xué)的一部分，但是它是連數(shù)學(xué)家都不怎么喜歡的那一部分，
because whereas the rest of maths is all about precision and certainty, statistics is almost the reverse of that.
因?yàn)榕c其它講究精確與確定性的數(shù)學(xué)領(lǐng)域不同，統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)幾乎是反其道而行之。
But actually, I was a late convert to the world of statistics myself.
事實(shí)上，我自己也是后來(lái)才轉(zhuǎn)向統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的。
If you'd asked my undergraduate professors what two subjects would I be least likely to excel in after university,
如果你們?nèi)?wèn)問(wèn)我本科時(shí)的教授，我大學(xué)畢業(yè)后最不可能有卓越成就的兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域是什么，
they'd have told you statistics and computer programming,
他們會(huì)告訴你是統(tǒng)計(jì)和電腦編程，
and yet here I am, about to show you some statistical graphics that I programmed.
然而現(xiàn)在，我要用我編的程序給你們展示統(tǒng)計(jì)圖表。
So what inspired that change in me? What made me think that statistics was actually an interesting thing?
是什么激發(fā)我有了這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變呢？是什么讓我對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)產(chǎn)生了興趣？
It's really because statistics are about us.
那是因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)是研究我們自身的科學(xué)。
If you look at the etymology of the word statistics, it's the science of dealing with data about the state or the community that we live in.
如果你看看統(tǒng)計(jì)的詞源，它是處理數(shù)據(jù)的科學(xué)，圍繞著我們所生活的國(guó)家或社區(qū)。
So statistics are about us as a group, not us as individuals.
所以，統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)是研究作為一個(gè)群體的我們，不是作為個(gè)人的我們。
And I think as social animals, we share this fascination about how we as individuals relate to our groups, to our peers.
而且我認(rèn)為作為一種群居動(dòng)物，我們會(huì)分享對(duì)作為一個(gè)個(gè)體，如何與所在的群體以及同輩之間發(fā)生聯(lián)系的那種癡迷。
And statistics in this way are at their most powerful when they surprise us.
統(tǒng)計(jì)最強(qiáng)大的時(shí)候，是當(dāng)它讓我們驚訝的時(shí)候。
And there's been some really wonderful surveys carried out recently by Ipsos MORI in the last few years.
伊普索莫利在過(guò)去幾年進(jìn)行過(guò)一些很有意義的調(diào)查。
They did a survey of over 1,000 adults in the UK, and said, for every 100 people in England and Wales, how many of them are Muslim?
他們調(diào)查了超過(guò)1000個(gè)英國(guó)的成年人，提出的問(wèn)題是，在每一百個(gè)英格蘭和威爾士人當(dāng)中有多少個(gè)穆斯林？
Now the average answer from this survey, which was supposed to be representative of the total population, was 24.
調(diào)查的平均答案是24，這是具有國(guó)民代表性的答案。
That's what people thought. British people think 24 out of every 100 people in the country are Muslim.
這是國(guó)民的想法。英國(guó)人認(rèn)為，在自己國(guó)家，每100個(gè)人中有24個(gè)信仰穆斯林。
Now, official figures reveal that figure to be about five.
而官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示這個(gè)數(shù)字大約是5。
So there's this big variation between what we think, our perception, and the reality as given by statistics.
很明顯，我們的感知與被統(tǒng)計(jì)資料呈現(xiàn)的事實(shí)之間有著巨大的差異。
And I think that's interesting. What could possibly be causing that misperception?
我覺(jué)得這很有趣。是什么原因引起這樣的感知差距呢？
