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60 Second Adventures in Economics—Number six: Rational Choice Theory
《60秒經濟學探奇》第六節：理性選擇理論
Of all the things to factor in when running an economy, the most troublesome is people.
運行一個經濟體，最讓人頭疼的因素莫過于人。
Now by and large—humans are a rational lot.
總體而言，人是理性的。
When the price of something rises people will supply more of it—and buy less of it.
價格上漲時，人們會供給更多，購買更少。
If they expect inflation to go up—people will usually ask for higher wages (though they might not get them)
如果通脹上升，人們會要求更高工資。只是可能得不到。
And if they can see interest or exchange rates falling in one country, people with lots of money there will try to move it out, faster than you can say 'double dip'.
看到一個國家的利率或匯率下降時，有很多錢的人們會將錢移往海外 快得你來不及說“二次探底”。
And governments often decide their economic policies assuming such rational actions.
而政府通常在假設理性行為的前提下進行經濟政策決策。
Which would be great, if it weren't for the fact that those pesky humans don't always do what's best for them.
這非常棒，如果不是那些煩人的人類總不按照對他們最有利的方式行事的話。
Sometimes they mistakenly think they know all the facts, or maybe the facts are just too complicated.
有時他們誤以為自己知道所有事實，或者也許事實太過復雜。
And sometimes people just decide to follow the crowd, relying on others to know what they're doing.
有時人們只是從眾，看別人怎么做自己就怎么做。
When too many cheap mortgages were being sold in 2007 a lot of people didn't know what was going on.
2007年，太多便宜抵押貸款被出售，很多人都不知道是什么情況，
And a lot of others just followed the crowd. Some lenders may have rationally believed that,
很多人只是追隨大眾。某些放款人也許理性地相信，
when the crunch came, the scale of the problem would force governments to rescue them.
危機來臨時，問題的規模會逼迫政府援救他們。
Which was true for the banks. If not for all their customers.
對于銀行是如此，但對他們的所有顧客并非如此。
