評(píng)論
打印
Bankruptcy is One After Another
破產(chǎn)接踵而至
It is not quite the Armageddon that was being predicted in the weeks after Lehman Brothers became America's biggest corporate bankruptcy last September. But this recession is still on course to be second only to the Depression in terms of companies going bust. Measured by the firm's assets at the time of filing for protection from their creditors, the past year has seen five of the eight biggest bankruptcy filings in the history of American business-with Washington Mutual, Thornburg Mortgage, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler joining Lehman on the list.
2008年9月，美國(guó)最大的公司雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)以后幾周時(shí)間里，人們覺(jué)得仿佛世界末日即將來(lái)臨，但現(xiàn)在看來(lái)貌似并沒(méi)有那么嚴(yán)重。不過(guò)從破產(chǎn)公司數(shù)量來(lái)看，這次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的嚴(yán)重程度僅次于30年代的大蕭條。以公荀申請(qǐng)對(duì)債權(quán)人的破產(chǎn)保護(hù)時(shí)的資產(chǎn)計(jì)算，過(guò)去一年中美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)史上最大的8家公司有5家申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)。除雷曼兄弟外，華盛頓互惠銀行、桑伯格抵押公司、通用汽車和克萊斯萊也在名單之列。
A good indicator of the awfulness of the downturn is the market for junk bonds, which surely deserve the name again after nearly two decades of attempts to rebrand them as safer-sounding "high-yield debt". At the end of May 9.2% of high-yield debt issues (globally, but dominated by American paper) had defaulted during the previous 12 months, compared with less than 1% in the year to December 2007. The failure rate is on course to hit 13.8% in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Moody's, a credit-rating agency, after which it should start to decline. That would be slightly higher than in the two previous recessions, when the percentage of defaults peaked at 10.9% (in January 2002) and 12.8% (in June 1991)，but below the all-time high of around 16.3% in 1933.
測(cè)量經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退程度的一個(gè)很好的指標(biāo)便是垃圾債券市場(chǎng)，其在經(jīng)過(guò)了近20年的時(shí)間將自己包裝成“高收益?zhèn)钡呐χ螅鴤拇_是名副其實(shí)。（2008年)5月底9.2%的高收益?zhèn)ㄈ虬l(fā)行，美元面值）在過(guò)去的12個(gè)月里違約，相比之下2007年全年的違約率還不到1%。信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪預(yù)測(cè)按這種情況發(fā)展下去，今年第四季度違約率將達(dá)到13.8%，之后將逐漸降低。這一比率略高于前兩次衰退，分別是2002年1月違約率最高為10.9%和1991年6月最高為12.8%，但是低于1933年常年高違約率約16.3%的水平。
Although they have wobbled a bit lately, junk-bond prices have recovered sharply in the past few months. This is particularly true of distressed issues (the ones trading at yields at least ten percentage points higher than those of Treasury bonds). In the fourth quarter of last year 87.5% of high-yield issues were distressed, which on past form implied an eventual default rate of more than 20% in the fourth quarter of this year, says Martin Fridson, of Fridson Investment Advisors. Now about 40% of issues are distressed, implying default rate of 10% this time next year. According to JPMorgan, there were 15 defaults a month in the first four months of 2009, but the rate fell by half in May and June.
雖然違約率時(shí)有波動(dòng)，但是在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中垃圾債券的價(jià)格急速飆升。特別是受壓債券(收益比國(guó)債至少高出10%)。弗里德森投資咨詢的馬丁·弗里德森說(shuō)，去年第四季度有87.5%的高收益?zhèn)獾降蛢r(jià)拋售，按照以往的規(guī)律這意味著今年第四季度違約率將超過(guò)20%?，F(xiàn)在約有40%的債 券遭到低價(jià)拋售，預(yù)示明年這個(gè)時(shí)候的違約率為10%。根據(jù)摩根大通的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2009年第一季度一個(gè)月的違約案就有15件，但是五、六月份的違約率下降了一半。
Not surprisingly, many prominent recent failures have been firms reliant on the American consumer, such as Eddie Bauer, a clothing retailer, and Six Flags, a theme-park operator. On July 1st Crabtree & Evelyn, a maker of soap and fragrances, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. There is much speculation about possible bankruptcy for Har-rah's Entertainment, a huge casino operator. Lear, a supplier of car parts, was expected to file.
不出所料地，很多最近申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)的都是嚴(yán)重依賴美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的著名公司，如服裝零售商埃迪·鮑爾和主題公園六旗游樂(lè)園。（2009年）7月1號(hào)，肥皂和芳香劑制造商瑰柏翠申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。大型賭場(chǎng)哈拉斯娛樂(lè)公司也很有可能申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)，汽車零件供應(yīng)商里爾美國(guó)汽車零件的情況類似。
The leading role of the federal government in the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler has prompted fierce debate about the future of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. The government's proposals gave much less to some classes of creditors-including those who thought their debt was secured-than the usually strict rules of Chapter 11 dictate. This has prompted fury, lawsuits and talk of a slippery slope. Others argue that GM and Chrysler are exceptionally politicized.
通用和克萊斯萊破產(chǎn)案中聯(lián)邦政府的主導(dǎo)地位引發(fā)了人們對(duì)第11章破產(chǎn)程序的未來(lái)的激烈討論。根據(jù)政府措施某些等級(jí)債權(quán)者得到的還不如依據(jù)通常的破產(chǎn)法來(lái)得多，他們中有人本來(lái)認(rèn)為自己的債權(quán)是安全的。這些引起民眾的憤怒，訴訟以及對(duì)“滑坡”的討論。還有人表示通用和克萊斯萊被特殊政治化。
Some courts are also giving bosses of bankrupt firms shorter shrift. On June 29th a bankruptcy judge ordered the executives of Gainey, a bankrupt trucking firm, to fly coach, "not first class, not business class. You'll travel like most of the rest of us do." At 21st for LyondellBasell, a petrochemicals giant, a judge will rule on a proposed $32m remuneration package for its putative new boss, James Gallogly.
法院對(duì)破產(chǎn)企業(yè)的老板們毫不留情。6月29日，一位破產(chǎn)案法官命令一家破產(chǎn)的卡車公司蓋尼的首席執(zhí)行官以后出行都乘坐經(jīng)濟(jì)艙，“不是頭等艙也不是商務(wù)艙，你要跟我們大多數(shù)人一樣”。 7月21日在對(duì)石化巨頭萊昂德爾巴塞爾工業(yè)公司的破產(chǎn)聽證會(huì)上，法官將對(duì)給予其繼任老板詹姆斯·蓋洛格里3200萬(wàn)美元報(bào)酬的申請(qǐng)作出判決。
What is clear is that law firms are doing very nicely out of corporate failure, as usual. The bill submitted by Jones Day for the first month of the Chrysler bankruptcy was for more than $12m.
顯而易見跟平常一樣，公司破產(chǎn)使得法律公司如魚得水。克萊斯萊破產(chǎn)一個(gè)月里眾達(dá)律師事務(wù)所提交的賬單就超過(guò)了1200萬(wàn)美元。
