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Reflation And How To Exploit It
如何從通貨再膨脹中獲利
The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn't stuffing money in a mattress, it's the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound, driving up interest rates and commodities prices.
就市場而言，最近談的最多的投資策略并不是尋求避險，而是通貨再膨脹交易——下注全球經濟將復蘇，從而推高利率水平和大宗商品價格。
Even though the economy continues to struggle, investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.
即便目前經濟仍然走勢蹣跚，投資者卻具有前瞻性地看到那了各國央行和政府的大規模救助舉措發揮作用的時刻。
They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.
他們重點關注原材料和大宗商品相關類股，這些類股可能會從基礎設施支出的飄升中受益。他們還期望從生產瓶頸中獲利，生產瓶頸會推高價格和企業利潤。
"Between the bailouts and the stimulus, it's pretty clear that we're going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess," says Roger lbbotson, founder of lbbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says, "It may not show up for another two years, after that I think it's quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that."
伊博森伙伴咨詢公司創始人、對沖基金公司斑馬資本管理有限公司董事長伊博森說在諸多救助計劃和剌激計劃中，很明顯我們走出經濟危機的時候會出現一些通貨膨脹。“他說，或許這種情況兩年之內不會出現，但我認為在兩年之后，很有可能出現，我覺得你們應該針對這種情況設置一個投資組合。”
Shawn Rubin, an adviser at Smith Barney in New York, has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.
史密斯·邦尼公司駐紐約顧問肖恩·魯賓已經將一些客戶的部分投資轉移至自然資源類股，同時使用策略應對通貨膨脹上升的風險。
One way is to use options, where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. "While in the short run such trades may not work, it's a long-term move," Mr. Rubin says. "You should buy insurance when it's cheap."
期權是一種手段，投資者可以使用相對較少的資金，建立頭寸應對國債價格大幅下挫或金價上漲將近一倍的情況。如果出現這種情況，他們就能從中獲利。魯賓說，“盡管此類交易短期可能不會奏效，這是一個長期性舉措。你得趁成本低廉的時候就采取防范性措施。”
And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market, though they promptly fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.
盡管在近期漲勢的推動下，截至上周四美國股市較低點回升了20%一一達到了通常的牛市回歸標準，不過上周五再次急劇下滑一一但多數投資者仍認為明年會遭遇更為困難的環境。
But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.
不過，美國聯邦儲備委員會（Fed，簡稱：美聯儲）已經采取許多重大舉措重振經濟，穩定金融體系。美聯儲已經將利率下調到實際為零的水平，并正在逐步向信貸市場注入超過2萬億美元。
On top of that, there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.
除此之外，聯邦政府還有7，870億美元的剌激計劃以及不斷擴大的預算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取著類似舉措。
Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, says "the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation," he adds.
北美信托銀行有限公司經濟研究主管保羅·卡斯里爾表示，“美聯儲在確保經濟持續復蘇時可能會出現錯誤，這通常意味著他們在遏制通貨膨脹方面的行動可能會遲緩。”他補充說，“政治輿論將會傾向于剌激通脹和防止通縮。”
Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a "survivor bias". That means "looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing" even if demand doesn't recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.
利納馬建議投資者考慮那些能夠生存下來的公司。這意味著尋找那些成本結構較低、資產負債能力強勁的公司，即便需求短期難以復蘇，它們仍然會生存下來。他說紐科鋼鐵公司就是這樣一個例子。
Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That's clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February, five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices, now that's swung around to a 1.35% increase.
已經有跡象顯示市場并不是那么擔憂通貨緊縮。這點在美國財政部通貨膨脹保值債券的(TIPS)市場上表現最為明顯。今軍二月，5年期通貨膨脹保值債券的走勢顯示，市場預計美國消費者價格會下跌0.5%，但目前的走勢已經逆轉，市場認為消費者價格會上升大約1.35%。
"The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small, but the direction tells the tale," says John Hollyer, a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.
先鋒抗通脹債券基金的聯席經理霍爾耶說，“通貨膨脹保值債券走勢所預計的通貨膨脹率幅度或許不大，但方向說明了一切。”
"The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there's a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation," he says.
他說，“財政和貨幣剌激舉措正促使投資者相信美聯儲很可能會取得成功，通貨膨脹也很有可能上升。”
