評論
打印
Leaders
社論
India
印度
Would Modi save India or wreck it?
莫迪是印度的救星還是克星？
India's Muslims have reason to fear Narendra Modi. He should reach out to them.
莫迪令印度的穆斯林教徒害怕也是情有可原的，他應(yīng)該與他們親近些。
EVEN five years ago it would have been inconceivable; but, with a general election due by next May, Narendra Modi is the front-runner to become India's next prime minister.
甚至5年前，那還無法想象；但值此大選將于明年五月份結(jié)束之際，莫迪成為最有可能擔(dān)任印度下一屆首相之人。
The long-serving chief minister of Gujarat has always had a core of passionate supporters for his mix of economic efficiency and hardline Hindu nationalism, and because he gets things done, an increasing number of voters see him as the saviour of India's struggling economy.
長期擔(dān)任古吉拉特邦的首席部長有幾個核心支持者，贊成他的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益以及加固印度的民族主義，這也是因為他干了些實事，所以越來越多的選民認(rèn)為他可以拯救印度慘淡的經(jīng)濟(jì)。
But Indian politics has no more divisive figure.
但是此人在印度政壇中頗受爭議。
A terrible blot hangs over his reputation since an orgy of violence in his state in 2002 left over 1,000 dead, most of them Muslims.
2002年在他管轄的地方暴力事件猖狂，造成1000人死亡，而其中大多數(shù)人是穆斯林人，他因此聲名狼藉。
Do his qualities outweigh that huge stain?
那么他的能力能否蓋過他這一巨大政治上污點呢？
Modi madness
莫迪之瘋狂
If Mr Modi looks like the country's leader-in-waiting, that is a measure of the state of the ruling party.
如果莫迪看起來像是印度的候選領(lǐng)導(dǎo)，那便是衡量執(zhí)政黨狀況的一種方式。
Congress has been in power since 2004 and long ago lost its vim.
國會自2004年開始掌權(quán)，很早就失去了活力。
India's once-scintillating growth rate has fallen by half to 5%.
印度曾經(jīng)較高的增長率也跌了一半至2.5%。
With a need to find new jobs for 10m Indians joining the workforce each year, such sluggish growth brings a terrible human cost.
每年100萬的印度人亟需找到新工作，但如此蕭條的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率使人力成本慘不忍睹。
It is this backdrop that makes Congress's drift and venality look so dangerous.
正是在這樣的背景下，國會的人浮于事以及唯利是圖是十分危險。
The 81-year-old prime minister, Manmohan Singh, once a reformer, is serving out his days as a Gandhi family retainer.
81歲的總理，曼莫漢·辛格曾經(jīng)也是一位改革家，如今作為甘地家族的保護(hù)者，正不斷為此服務(wù)直至其任期滿為止。
Rahul Gandhi might end up as Congress's next candidate for prime minister; yet the princeling seems neither to want the job nor to be up to doing it.
拉胡爾·甘地可能最后會成為國會下一屆的總理候選人；然而這位王子看起來既不想要這份工作也不能勝任。
In four of the five state elections announced this week Congress was deservedly walloped.
本周，5個邦大選中就有4個宣布國會理應(yīng)備受指責(zé)。
One encouraging sign was the emergence of an anti-corruption movement in Delhi.
但在新德里出現(xiàn)的反腐運(yùn)動現(xiàn)象鼓舞人心。
The main beneficiary of this passion for change, however, is Mr Modi.
這次人們鐘情于改變的熱情高漲主要受益者是莫迪。
Not only is he the prime-ministerial candidate for the Hindu, centre-right Bharatiya Janata Party but, to an unusual degree for an Indian party, he is the public face of its campaign.
他不但成為了印度教里中右翼印度人民黨的總理候選人，很大程度上，他也代表著這印度政黨整個陣營的形象。
His visibility helps account for its success this week in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi.
他經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在公眾視野中，這倒也使得他本周在拉賈斯坦邦、中央邦、恰蒂斯加爾邦以及新德里大獲成功。
A brilliant orator, the 63-year-old attracts huge crowds around the country.
一位才能出眾的63歲演說家，吸引了全國大批擁護(hù)者。
Whereas Indian politicians usually pay people to attend their rallies, Mr Modi charges an entrance fee—which is both a sign of the enthusiasm he arouses and a way of making supporters feel they belong to a powerful movement.
鑒于印度的政治家們通常都花錢讓百姓參加他們的集會，莫迪反而收取入會費——這也表明他能喚起民眾的熱情以及使支持者感覺歸屬于這一強(qiáng)大運(yùn)動中。
Many of India's business titans are besotted with him. Anil Ambani of Reliance Group calls him “the lord of men, a leader among leaders and a king among kings”.
許多商業(yè)大亨十分信賴他。信實集團(tuán)的安尼爾·安巴尼稱他為“人們的主，領(lǐng)袖中的領(lǐng)袖，王中之王”。
Investors think that he would fire up the economy. Bright young acolytes are giving up well-paid jobs to join his campaign.
投資家們認(rèn)為他可以帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。如今聰明年輕的黨羽正放棄高薪的工作加入到他的陣營。
Much about Mr Modi appeals to this newspaper too.
本報也對于他的諸多事情十分感興趣。
He is a man of action and an outspoken outsider in a political system stuffed with cronies.
他富有執(zhí)行力，在充滿結(jié)黨營私的政治體系中依舊可以是直言不諱的旁觀者。
In contrast with the pampered Mr Gandhi, great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru and son of Sonia Gandhi, Congress's behind-the-scenes boss, Mr Modi comes from a low caste and a modest background as a tea-seller; his success is down to drive and ambition.
與國會的幕后老板—養(yǎng)尊處優(yōu)慣了的甘地相反，莫迪只是社會地位低、背景謙卑的茶商；他的成功歸因于他的執(zhí)行力與雄心壯志。
And in a system shot through with corruption, he seems pretty clean.
在充斥著腐敗的體系中，他看上去還十分清廉。
Unusually for a serious contender to be prime minister, Mr Modi has a record from a dozen years as a chief minister.
對于嚴(yán)肅認(rèn)真的莫迪而言，競選擔(dān)任總理，這不同尋常。莫迪曾有十來年的光陰擔(dān)任首席部長。
Gujarat, a state of 60m people, has boomed as he has cut red tape and built roads and power lines.
一個擁有6千萬人口的古吉拉特邦，自他刪去那些繁文祿節(jié)，修建道路與電線后，欣欣向榮起來了。
Business has flourished and investment has poured in.
商業(yè)日益繁榮，外資也越來越多。
Gujarat accounts for just 5% of India's population, yet produces nearly a quarter of its exports.
古吉拉特邦僅占據(jù)印度人口的5%，然而卻占據(jù)了印度出口量的將近四分之一。
State GDP has almost tripled under Mr Modi. Most social indicators have also improved.
在莫迪的管理下，該地區(qū)的GDP已經(jīng)近乎翻了三番。大多數(shù)社會指標(biāo)也得以提高了。
Even among Muslims, generally poorer than Hindus, the poverty rate has fallen from over 40% to 11% in two decades.
甚至在比印度教徒還更為貧困的穆斯林信徒中，貧窮比率也在近20年里從近40%下降到11%。
Mr Modi talks of replicating Gujarat's rapid growth, industrial development and improved infrastructure across India.
莫迪論及全印度可復(fù)制古吉拉特邦的快速增長，工業(yè)的發(fā)展與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的改善。
That is refreshing. Politicians usually promise subsidies and largesse for special interests.
這想法很新鮮。因為政客們通常都只是承諾給補(bǔ)助金并且出于特殊利益才慷慨贈予。
This is the Modi who could save India and greatly benefit hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people.
正是莫迪可以挽救印度，數(shù)以千萬的貧苦百姓能得以從水生火熱中逃脫。
But his business supporters should face the fact that there is also a Modi who risks breaking India.
但是他的商業(yè)支持者也應(yīng)意識到另一個事實—莫迪有可能會把印度給毀了。
Two serious questions hang over his character.
他性格方面有兩處非議。
The first concerns his leadership.
首先關(guān)乎他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)。
He is an autocratic loner who is a poor delegator.
他是位獨裁的孤家寡人，由自己全權(quán)代表。
That may work at state level, but not at national level—particularly when the BJP is likely to come to power only as part of a coalition.
在治理一個小邦上，這一問題還無關(guān)緊要，但是在管理國家上而言，這點就行不通了—尤其當(dāng)印度人民黨可能會作為聯(lián)合的一部分而掌權(quán)。
A man who does not listen to the counsel of others is likely to make bad decisions, and if he were prime minister of India, and thus had his finger on the button of a potential nuclear conflict with Pakistan, Mr Modi would be faced with some very serious ones.
一位不聽取他人建議的人可能會作出錯誤的決定，要是這樣的莫迪做了印度的總理，勢必會引發(fā)與巴基斯坦的核武器沖突，等待著他的還有一些此類非常嚴(yán)重的問題。
Beyond the pale?
不謀其政？
The second issue concerns the dreadful pogrom that happened on Mr Modi's watch.
第二點便是關(guān)系到莫迪保護(hù)范圍內(nèi)的地區(qū)出現(xiàn)了大屠殺事件。
No Indian court has found him guilty of any crime.
但印度法庭沒有加以他任何罪名。
Yet it is hard to find an Indian who believes he does not share some responsibility for what happened—if only through neglect.
印度人民可不這么看，他們認(rèn)為他多少應(yīng)為此事付些責(zé)任—就從疏于職守來看。
He is banned from travel to America because of it.
他因此被禁止前往美國旅行。
In this context, Mr Modi's failure to show remorse, which goes down well with his Hindu chauvinist base, speaks volumes.
在這一背景下，莫迪沒有表達(dá)一點懊悔之情，但在印度沙文主義的腹地他卻是一番虔誠致歉。
The BJP is not the only party in India with a bloody history.
印度人民黨并不是印度唯一一個用鮮血構(gòu)筑的黨派。
Congress turned a blind eye in 1984 as thousands of Sikhs were massacred in rage at the murder of Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards.
1984年因英迪拉·甘地險些被錫克教保鏢謀殺而盛怒之下殺害了數(shù)以千計的錫克教教徒。
Yet Congress does not pursue a policy against Sikhs or any other ethnic or religious group, while Mr Modi has devoted much of his life to the pursuit of an extreme form of Hindu nationalism.
然而國會對此視若罔聞，也不出臺對抗錫克教徒或者其他種族抑或宗教群體的政策，盡管莫迪花了他大半人生來追求使印度教成為國教這一極端方式。
His state party included no Muslim candidates in last year's election and he has refused to wear a Muslim skull-cap.
他的政黨將去年大選的穆斯林候選人排除在外，他還拒絕戴穆斯林的無邊便帽。
Other BJP leaders have worn them.
而其他印度人民黨的領(lǐng)袖都戴上了。
He failed to condemn riots in Uttar Pradesh in September in which most of the victims were Muslim.
9月份對于主要以穆斯林教徒受害者居多的北方邦動亂，莫迪也未能對此次動亂加以譴責(zé)。
All sins of omission perhaps, but in India symbols like skull-caps matter—as Mr Modi well knows.
可能就算忽略所有的過錯，然而對于諸如無邊便帽這樣的印度象征物也不可置之不理。
India's great strength is its inclusiveness. In the next five months Mr Modi needs to show that his idea of a pure India is no longer a wholly Hindu one.
印度的最大優(yōu)勢就是它的包容性。在接下來的5個月，莫迪需要表示下他想要的一個純粹的印度并不再是唯獨印度教的那個。
How he does that is his own affair, but an unambiguous public demonstration that he abhors violence and discrimination against Muslims is a bare minimum.
他怎么做那是他自己的事情，但是讓他在公眾場合明確表態(tài)討厭反感以暴力、歧視對待穆斯林，這是最低的一項要求。
Otherwise, this newspaper will not back him.
否則，本報不會支持他。
