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The Optimism Bias
盲目樂觀的好處
We like to think of ourselves as rational creatures.
我們喜歡把自己當作理智的生物。
We watch our backs, weigh the odds, pack an umbrella.
我們總會提防背后的危險，權衡勝負的幾率，隨身攜帶雨傘以防下雨。
But both neuroscience and social science suggest that we are more optimistic than realistic.
但神經學和社會學都揭示，我們的樂觀性大于現(xiàn)實性。
On average, we expect things to turn out better than they wind up being.
一般而言，我們總會把事情想得比真實情況更好一些。
People hugely underestimate their chances of getting divorced,losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer;
人們會大大低估他們離婚，失業(yè)或得癌癥的可能性；
expect their children to be extraordinarily gifted;
期望自己的孩子擁有非凡的天分；
envision themselves achieving more than their peers;
想象自己能比同輩獲得更大的成就；
and overestimate their likely life span.
人們也會高估自己的壽命。
The belief that the future will be much better than the past and present is known as the optimism bias.
這種相信未來會比過去和現(xiàn)在好得多的想法被稱為樂觀主義偏見。
It abides in every race, region and socioeconomic bracket.
它存在于每個種族，地區(qū)和社會經濟階層。
Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up are rampant optimists,but so are grownups:
玩等我正大后游戲的學童是典型的樂觀主義者。而成年人也一樣。
a recent study found that adults over 60 are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.
最近一項調查發(fā)現(xiàn)，超過60歲的成年人和年輕的成年人一樣傾向于還有半杯水的樂觀主義看法。
You might expect optimism to erode under the tide of news about violent conflicts,high unemployment, tornadoes and floods and all the threats and failures that shape human life.
當人們淹沒在暴力沖突，高失業(yè)率，龍卷風，洪水等負面新聞以及生活中的威脅和失敗的潮水中時，你可能會覺得樂觀主義會被逐漸磨滅。
Collectively we can grow pessimistic-about the direction of our country or the ability of our leaders to improve education and reduce crime.
總體而言我們會變得悲觀—對我們國家的走向，或是領導人改善教育，減少犯罪的能力。
But private optimism, about our personal future,remains incredibly resilient.
但個人的樂觀主義—關于我們個人的未來—卻難以置信地絲毫未減。
A survey conducted last year found that while 70% thought families in general were less successful than in their parents' day,76% of respondents were optimistic about the future of their own family.
去年的一項調查顯示，盡管70%的受訪者認為現(xiàn)在的家庭普遍沒有他們父輩時那么成功，卻有76%的人對他們自己家庭的未來表示樂觀。
Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations-make us less likely to get health checkups,apply sunscreen or open a savings account,and more likely to bet the farm on a bad investment.
過于積極的設想可能會導致災難性的的失算。它使我們不大會想到去做體檢，抹防曬霜，或開儲蓄賬戶；同時很可能使你把所有家產押在糟糕的投資上。
But the bias also protects and inspires us:it keeps us moving forward rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge.
但這種偏見也會保護和鼓舞我們:它使我們不斷前進，而不是去尋找最近的高臺。
Without optimism,our ancestors might never have ventured far from their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers,still huddled together and dreaming of light and heat.
沒有樂觀主義，我們的祖先可能永遠不會遠離他們的部落去冒險，我們可能都還群居在洞穴里，擠在一起夢想著光和熱。
To make progress,we need to be able to imagine alternative realities- better ones-and we need to believe that we can achieve them.
要尋求發(fā)展，我們必須想象出不同的現(xiàn)實—更好的現(xiàn)實—并且要相信我們能夠實現(xiàn)。
Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals.
這樣的信念可以為我們追求目標提供動力。
Optimists in general work longer hours and tend to earn more.
樂觀主義者通常會工作更長的時間，也更可能賺得更多。
Economists at Duke University found that optimists even save more.
杜克大學的經濟學家發(fā)現(xiàn)，樂觀主義者甚至會有更多的儲蓄。
And although they are not less likely to divorce,they are more likely to remarry-an act that is,as Samuel Johnson wrote,the triumph of hope over experience.
雖然他們離婚的幾率不會比別人低，但他們更容易再婚—如塞繆爾?約翰遜曾寫到的，這是希望戰(zhàn)勝了經驗。
