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Business.
商業。
The music business.
唱片業。
Universal's gamble.
環球公司的賭博游戲。
A musical merger could create anew model, or a dozy mammoth.
唱片行業的并購案可能會催生一種新的商業模式，亦或者是一個行動遲緩的"龐然大物"。
A WISE gamble involves knowing when to hold, when to fold and when to run,croons Kenny Rogers , an artist released through EMI's Capitol Records . Some are now wondering whether Universal Music Group was wise to gamble quite so much money on EMI's recorded-music division, which it bought from Citigroup for ￡1.2 billion ($1.9 billion) in an auction in November last year. For a firm in the weakest segment of a struggling industry, it was a lot. And regulators in America and Europe may make it costlier still.
肯尼?羅杰斯（Kenny Rogers）在通過百代（EMI）旗下的國會唱片公司（Capitol Records）發行的一首歌中，這樣低聲吟唱道："聰明的牌手知道何時叫牌，他懂得扣牌的時機，他還明白幾時該重返牌局"。環球唱片（Universal Music Group）去年11月在一次拍賣會上從花旗集團（Citigroup）手中以12億英鎊（折合19億美元）的價格買入英國百代（EMI）的唱片部門。環球如此大手筆的冒險行為是否明智？一些業界人士對此表示懷疑。對處在這樣一個苦苦掙扎的行業，而且是其發展最疲軟市場中的公司來說，這的確是一大筆錢。此外，美國和歐盟相關監管部門的介入，可能令環球付出更高昂的代價。
At issue is whether the deal would give Universal Music, the largest of the four major labels, an unfair advantage by letting it take over the smallest. Taking EMI's market share and handsome catalogue (from theBeatles to Katy Perry, pictured) would give Universal a 40-50% share of most markets, reckons Enders Analysis, a research firm. It would also give the company more than half of last year's Billboard Top 100 hits, which would put it in an especially strong negotiating position with digital distributors, from iTunes to start-ups. "This is just about getting a bigger piece of the cake,"says Martin Mills, head of the Beggars Group of independent record labels.
但是人們目前考慮的重點是：允許全球四家主要唱片公司中規模最大的環球對規模最小的百代進行收購，此舉是否會給環球帶來不公平優勢？英國市場研究公司Enders Analysis認為，百代唱片（EMI）的市場份額以及旗下眾多的大牌藝人（從披頭士—Beatles到凱蒂·佩里—Katy Perry，見下圖）將會給環球公司帶來大部分市場中40%-50%的份額。而這樣的交易也同樣意味著去年"告示牌百強單曲榜（Billboard Top 100 hits）"中過半歌曲的發行都將由環球負責，這將使得環球在同數字音樂分銷商iTunes及其它新秀公司談判時處于一個特別強勢的地位。馬丁·米爾斯，英國獨立音樂廠牌乞丐集團（Beggars Group）創始人兼主席，對此發表評論稱，"這也只不過就是分到了一塊比較大的蛋糕罷了！"。
Hard times force singers to wear old sweet wrappers
日子苦、預算緊，某些歌手只能以老式糖紙裹身登臺了
Regulators have been wary of further consolidation in the industry ever since Sony Music merged with BMG's recorded-music division in 2004. The European Commission duly delivered a long "statement of objections" earlier this month. Though negotiations are confidential until the Eurocrats deliver their verdict in September, many predict that Universal will have to sell off quite a bit of EMI, including Virgin Music and EMI Classics.
自從2004年索尼唱片公司（Sony Music）并購了貝圖斯曼（BMG）的唱片部門之后，致力于行業反壟斷的監管者們一直都在擔心，該行業未來還會出現其他的合并案例。本月早些時候，歐盟委員會適時地發布了一份內容很長的"異議聲明"（Statements of objections）。盡管在9月份歐盟官員公布裁決結果之前，磋商內容仍對外保密，但是許多業界人士推測，環球唱片公司將被迫出售EMI唱片部門旗下相當一部分品牌，其中包括維京（Virgin Music）和百代古典（EMI Classics）。
Some expect such concessions to hamper the label's plans to make money from the deal. Universal has to pay Citigroup $1.75 billion in September regardless of the outcome. This puts Vivendi , Universal's French parent, in an uncomfortable position, as it must reassure its increasingly tetchy shareholders that the ￡100m in predicted synergies will come to pass.
有人預計，做出這樣的讓步，會阻礙環球公司計劃通過這項交易實現盈利的目的。同時，不管9月份歐盟會公布怎樣的裁決結果，環球唱片公司都需要支付花旗集團（Citigroup）17.5億美金。這樣的形勢，就使得環球的法國老東家—威望迪集團（Vivendi）處在了一個難堪的境地。因為它必須安撫好那些脾氣越來越暴躁的股東們，告訴他們百代加入所產生的協同效應，將為集團帶來預計1億英鎊的收入。
These regulatory hurdles are good news for Universal's rivals, particularly Warner Music, an especially loud opponent of the merger (though it had previously attempted to merge with EMI itself), which is keen to scoop up anything divested in the process. But some wonder why Universal ever chose to double down in such a grim market.
面對環球遭遇的這些行業監管門檻，它的競爭對手們，特別是華納唱片公司（Warner Music）感到很高興。華納唱片是這次交易案特別強烈的反對者（盡管之前它也試圖想要收購百代），而且它一直都渴望能夠收編那些在此次并購過程中被拆分出售的業務 。但是也有人對此懷有疑問，究竟環球唱片公司為什么將賭注雙倍壓在了這樣一個不景氣的市場上？
Sales of recorded music have fallen by half in the past decade, from about $13 billion in 2002 to $6.5 billion last year. Downloaded music is much cheaper than the old compact discs. Indeed, thanks to widespread piracy, it is often free.
在過去的十年里，唱片業的銷售額跌了有五成。從2002年的約130億美元縮水到了2011年的65億美元。因為從互聯網下載的音樂比傳統的CD光盤要便宜的多，而且"得益于"網絡盜版的盛行，這些數字音樂經常可以免費得到。
Small wonder, then, that music firms are scrambling to cut costs. EMI is in fairly good shape after being put on a diet by Terra Firma, the private-equity firm that owned it before Citigroup. Still, Universalis getting the part of EMI's business that is most vulnerable to disruptive technology. (Citigroup separately sold its stodgy but strong music-publishing division to a consortium headed by Sony for $2.2 billion. Regulators agreed to this deal last month, without much fuss.)
有少部分人懷疑，也就是說，目前的音樂唱片公司都在努力縮減開支。花旗集團接手之前的百代（EMI），經過私募股權投資公司—泰豐資本（Terra Firma）的操刀調整之后，處于一個比較良好的狀態。而現在，環球公司即將收購的卻是百代最容易受到科技侵擾的唱片事業部。（花旗集團單獨將百代的音樂版權部門以22億美元的價格出售給了以索尼為首的一個財團。盡管音樂版權是塊"難啃的骨頭"，但是卻擁有強勢的發展前景。上月，行業監管人員同意了這筆交易，而且并沒有表現出太多的緊張和不安。）
Rock and roll, and the blues
搖滾樂和布魯斯
To convince people that its purchase makes sense, Universal is in the awkward position of having to send several messages at once, not all of them coherent. To investors, the company is explaining that the music industry is beginning to stabilise. Its future is rosier than most people think, and alarger Universal would be well-placed to cash in [6]on a recovery, goes the argument. The latest Nielsen SoundScan [11]figures could conceivably support this view, as they show a slowing rate of decline of album sales in America in the first six months of 2012.
為了讓公眾相信，這項收購案是合情合理的，環球唱片公司被迫將零星的幾條信息一起公布出來，而并非有條理地讓大家了解全部實情，這就使得環球現在處于一種尷尬的境地。面對投資者，它解釋稱音樂行業已經開始逐漸回穩。有人認為，唱片業的前景要比大多數人想的美好，而且規模擴張的環球公司也將受益于行業復蘇，使自己在未來處于有利地位。Nielsen SoundScan最新發布的數據對上述觀點進行了有力的支持。正如數字顯示的那樣，2012年美國地區上半年唱片銷量下降的趨勢正在逐漸減緩。
To regulators, Universal and Vivendi are singing a completely different tune.They argue that record labels have been crippled by digital distributors such as Apple's iTunes, and by piracy. They moan that music retailers dictate terms to them. They plead that they are so powerless that even getting much larger would not give them anything approaching the clout to curb competition in the music market.
但是面對行業的監管者們，環球和威望迪（Vivendi）則完全唱起了不同的調調。他們爭論道，類似蘋果iTunes這樣的數字分銷商以及盜版音樂的存在，嚴重削弱了唱片行業的市場；他們還抱怨音樂零售商對他們頤指氣使，發號施令。同時他們也在自我辯解，稱自己如此無力，即使規模再大也不可能達到在音樂市場"一手遮天"的地步。
Lucian Grainge, the head of Universal, tries to square this circle .He explains that the merger is an effort to "invest in the future of theindustry". The plan is not to cut costs and keep EMI's catalogue, but to "build it back up" and maintain it as a separate company within Universal. He describes the deal as a way to "turn the industry back to some sort of growth", and promises to work with as many new distributors and platforms as possible."It would be insane for us to not ensure that the artists we invest in are not in every single new platform."
作為環球音樂首席執行官的盧西恩?格蘭奇（Lucian Grainge），正在嘗試這樣一件不可能完成的事。他解釋道，這項并購是環球公司對"投資音樂產業未來"所做的努力。公司的計劃并非削減開支并同時保留百代旗下的藝人名錄，而是要重振其雄風，并將百代作為一個環球內部獨立的公司來運作。格蘭奇把這項交易形容為一種可以"扭轉行業現狀，使其重回增長之路"的方式，同時他還承諾將會同盡可能多的新平臺和新分銷商進行合作。"如果我們不能保證每一個公司投資的藝人都享有全新獨立的工作平臺的話，那么我們就顯得太愚蠢了"。
The snag is that the industry has yet to find a way to replace declining album sales. Digital sales are rising, but are still only a fraction of what CDs used to generate. Subscription services such as Spotify may appeal more to tech-savvy music aficionados than to casual buyers who might once have picked up a CD on the way home from work. Efforts to bundle music with mobile-phone or pay-TV subscriptions have failed to catch on.
還有一個小問題就是，盡管唱片銷售額在不斷下滑，但是業界仍未找到可以替代傳統音樂銷售的方式 。數字音樂的銷售額在上升，但是具體數量仍是以前CD銷售數量的一小部分。在線音樂播放軟件Spotify的訂閱服務可能對了解技術常識的"音樂控"吸引多一些；而那些隨機消費者可能會選擇在下班回家的途中拿起一張CD來聽。所以，盡管試圖將數字音樂同手機以及付費電視訂閱進行捆綁銷售，但是這種做法并未在市場中流行開來。
Some suggest that a larger Universal will be more inclined to take risks on new business models. If it finds one, that could benefit record labels and artists. But others guess that the musical mammoth will plod along, milking its existing sources of cash and making it harder for a new, potentially benign distributor to enter the market.
有人認為，規模擴大以后的環球唱片公司將有可能冒險采取新的商業模式。如果它找到了這樣一條新的經營之道，那么音樂廠牌和旗下藝人都會因此獲益。但是也有人猜測，像環球這樣龐大的唱片公司在未來的發展道路上將會步履遲緩。在不斷艱難挖掘現有財路的情況下，也使得新的、潛力良好的分銷商很難進入當前的唱片市場。
