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金融世界 第二十四集
這一講是我們這套二十四講系列節目的最后一講。我們要跟您繼續談談二十世紀末發生在亞洲的金融危機。
亞洲的經濟危計是從金融行業開始的。它是如何迅速地蔓延到整個經濟領域的呢？美國密執安州立大學的克雷寧教授對此作了解釋：
In all these countries, the trouble started in the financial sector. The question is, how did it move from the financial sector to the real economy, to economic growth, to real GDP?
Well there are several channels. Number one is what we call in economics a 'negative wealth effect'. If the stockmarket declines by 40%, then people feel less wealthy; if they feel less wealthy they buy less; if they buy less, less is produced and fewer people are employed. So that's one channel.
But there were other channels through investments where the credit system was flawed; even sound companies couldn't get credit with which to produce, with which to buy material, with which to buy capital, with which to invest and to produce. So the credit system problem ... that lubricant of the economy was non-existent. So those are only some of the channels through which it moved from the financial sector to the real economy.
克雷寧教授在談話中使用了這樣一些縮略語或詞匯：
1 GDP （Gross Domestic Product 的縮寫）國內生產總值
2 Negative wealth effect 財富遞減效應
3 lubricant of the economy 經濟的潤滑劑
接下來我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯分段聽一遍：（英文略）
所有這些國家都是在金融行業首先出現麻煩。問題是這些麻煩如何從金融部門影響到總體經濟、經濟的增長以及國內生產總值呢？
有這樣一些渠道。首先是我們在經濟學中所稱的“財富遞減效應”。如果股票市場跌落百分之四十，人們會覺得自己的財富減少了。如果他們覺得自己的財富減少了，他們就會減少購物支出。如果他們減少購物支出，生產就會減少，受雇用的人數也會降低。這是一個渠道。
還有其他一些投資方面的渠道。信貸系統出了問題，使甚至經營良好的公司也無法得到用于生產、用于購買原料、用于購置資產、用于投資和生產的貸款。因此信貸系統有了問題，經濟的潤滑劑就不復存在。這只是危機從金融部門轉向總體經濟的幾個渠道。
下面我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話連起來聽一遍。（英文略）
接下來克雷寧教授又解釋了亞洲的金融危機會怎樣影響到其他的國家。他說：
There is a meltdown in Russia and in Venezuela - in one day. Now what do Russia and Venezuela have in common? Nothing except that they are both big oil exporters, and since those five countries had that economic meltdown - moving into a depression in Indonesia with 20% decline in GDP to a deep recession everywhere else, 5% decline in GDP - they need less oil and they need less raw materials. So all countries that export oil and that export raw materials are going to suffer.
This is how the system spread. It spreads even through the trade channel, or through the financial channel from one country to the other - and when there is loss of confidence the spread is rather rapid.
克雷寧教授在這段談話中使用了這樣幾個詞匯：
1 meltdown 熔化，溶解，這里指經濟萎縮
2 depression 蕭條
3 recession 衰退
4 raw materials 生產原料
5 spread 傳播，蔓延
下面我們再分段聽一遍克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯：（英文略）
俄羅斯和委內瑞拉一天之內就出現了經濟萎縮。俄羅斯與委內瑞拉有什么共同之處呢？它們都是石油出口大國。亞洲五國出現經濟萎縮，印尼的國內生產總值降低百分之二十，進入蕭條期，其他國家的國內生產總值降低百分之五，進入嚴重的衰退，它們需要的石油和原料就減少了。因此所有出口石油和原料的國家都會受到損害。
這就是這一機制是如何傳播的。它甚至通過貿易渠道或金融渠道從一個國家傳到另一個國家。當人們失去信心的時候它的傳播會非常迅速。
